This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
The market prices Yes at only 22%, with No at 79%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 22% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
$989 in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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