🌍 예측 시장: 지정학

105 활성 시장

Geopolitics prediction markets — wars, international deals and global power shifts

Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%예아니오
No Head of State7%예아니오
$3,709.7만 거래량 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%예아니오
August 1446%예아니오
$806.5만 거래량 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
확률
예 아니오
$160.3만 거래량 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%예아니오
July 2899%예아니오
$1,146.5만 거래량 31/08
7월 31일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까? 7월 31일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$134.2만 거래량 오늘 마감
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$67.3만 거래량 오늘 마감
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%예아니오
September 308%예아니오
$6,836.2만 거래량 오늘 마감
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%예아니오
September 3011%예아니오
$1,187.5만 거래량 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$134.2만 거래량 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%예아니오
October 3179%예아니오
$190.7만 거래량 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%예아니오
October 3118%예아니오
$341.2만 거래량 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%예아니오
July 272%예아니오
$264.6만 거래량 2일 남음
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%예아니오
December 3122%예아니오
$2,132.4만 거래량 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%예아니오
August 1517%예아니오
$2,537.5만 거래량 오늘 마감
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%예아니오
September 305%예아니오
$2,896만 거래량 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%예아니오
August 1519%예아니오
$10.2만 거래량 2일 남음
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%예아니오
September 3019%예아니오
$873.9만 거래량 오늘 마감
12월 31일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까? 12월 31일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까?
52%
확률
예 아니오
$134.2만 거래량 31/12
9월 30일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까? 9월 30일까지 호르무즈 해협 통항이 정상화될까?
19%
확률
예 아니오
$134.2만 거래량 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%예아니오
40+1%예아니오
$6.8만 거래량 2일 남음
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$21.3만 거래량 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%예아니오
September 30September 305%예아니오
$6.7만 거래량 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%예아니오
December 31, 20269%예아니오
$6.3만 거래량 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%예아니오
September 309%예아니오
$33.5만 거래량 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%예아니오
March 311%예아니오
$5.8만 거래량 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%예아니오
July 311%예아니오
$854.8만 거래량 2일 남음
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$9.1만 거래량 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%예아니오
Benjamin Netanyahu34%예아니오
$3,036.1만 거래량 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%예아니오
Delcy Rodríguez10%예아니오
$9,476.4만 거래량 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
확률
예 아니오
$4.7만 거래량 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%예아니오
September 30, 202687%예아니오
$855.7만 거래량 오늘 마감
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%예아니오
스위스25%예아니오
$3.7만 거래량 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
확률
예 아니오
$5.3만 거래량 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
확률
예 아니오
$20.2만 거래량 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%예아니오
September 305%예아니오
$819.2만 거래량 오늘 마감
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$63.1만 거래량 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
확률
예 아니오
$111.9만 거래량 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%예아니오
October 3117%예아니오
$575.5만 거래량 31/12
이란 정권이 2027 전에 붕괴할까? 이란 정권이 2027 전에 붕괴할까?
9%
확률
예 아니오
$3.7만 거래량 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%예아니오
September 30September 3019%예아니오
$103.2만 거래량 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%예아니오
October 316%예아니오
$1,760.1만 거래량 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%예아니오
April 301%예아니오
$1,216.9만 거래량 오늘 마감
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%예아니오
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%예아니오
$2만 거래량 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%예아니오
Druzkhivka38%예아니오
$1.9만 거래량 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%예아니오
2–6s6%예아니오
$1.9만 거래량 2일 남음
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%예아니오
July 312%예아니오
$130.2만 거래량 2일 남음
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
확률
예 아니오
$1.8만 거래량 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
확률
예 아니오
$5.3만 거래량 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%예아니오
September 3012%예아니오
$611.1만 거래량 오늘 마감
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%예아니오
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%예아니오
$2,301만 거래량 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%예아니오
November 3050%예아니오
$211.8만 거래량 31/12
이란이 12월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까? 이란이 12월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까?
26%
확률
예 아니오
$1.9만 거래량 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$21.9만 거래량 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
확률
예 아니오
$36.4만 거래량 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%예아니오
February 28February 281%예아니오
$107.3만 거래량 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$1.3만 거래량 31/12
이란 정권이 9월 30일까지 붕괴할까? 이란 정권이 9월 30일까지 붕괴할까?
3%
확률
예 아니오
$3.7만 거래량 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$1.7만 거래량 2일 남음
WTI 원유 ___까지 사상 최고가?WTI 원유 ___까지 사상 최고가?
December 3115%예아니오
September 306%예아니오
$217.4만 거래량 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
확률
예 아니오
$1.1만 거래량 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$3.4만 거래량 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$1.2만 거래량 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%예아니오
January 31January 311%예아니오
$708.5만 거래량 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
확률
예 아니오
$157.1만 거래량 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%예아니오
September 3088%예아니오
$23.3만 거래량 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%예아니오
July 2944%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 오늘 마감
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
확률
예 아니오
$83.7만 거래량 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%예아니오
December13%예아니오
$16만 거래량 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%예아니오
October 3156%예아니오
$140.4만 거래량 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%예아니오
August 1846%예아니오
$1.7만 거래량 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%예아니오
October 3114%예아니오
$23.5만 거래량 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
미국1%예아니오
Italy1%예아니오
$8,167 거래량 2일 남음
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,158 거래량 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
확률
예 아니오
$7,869 거래량 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%예아니오
December 31, 20263%예아니오
$139.4만 거래량 31/12
7월 27일 주에 호르무즈 해협를 통과하는 선박은 몇 척?7월 27일 주에 호르무즈 해협를 통과하는 선박은 몇 척?
50-7443%예아니오
75-9919%예아니오
$9,143 거래량 4일 남음
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%예아니오
June 301%예아니오
$209.5만 거래량 오늘 마감
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
확률
예 아니오
$7,312 거래량 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%예아니오
September 3039%예아니오
$7,215 거래량 31/12
Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?
December 3140%예아니오
July 311%예아니오
$6,828 거래량 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%예아니오
July 311%예아니오
$998.5만 거래량 오늘 마감
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
확률
예 아니오
$1,052.9만 거래량 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%예아니오
July 311%예아니오
$47.5만 거래량 2일 남음
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$4.8만 거래량 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%예아니오
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%예아니오
$40.6만 거래량 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
확률
예 아니오
$1.7만 거래량 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%예아니오
June 301%예아니오
$2,169.9만 거래량 오늘 마감
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$349.2만 거래량 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%예아니오
No prison time34%예아니오
$65.7만 거래량 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%예아니오
July 315%예아니오
$18.8만 거래량 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%예아니오
August 1530%예아니오
$4,833 거래량 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%예아니오
September 30September 305%예아니오
$4,687 거래량 오늘 마감
이란이 7월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까? 이란이 7월 31일까지 우라늄 농축 중단에 합의할까?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$1.9만 거래량 오늘 마감
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%예아니오
July 141%예아니오
$13.4만 거래량 2일 남음
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%예아니오
August 317%예아니오
$95.3만 거래량
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
확률
예 아니오
$2만 거래량 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$5.7만 거래량 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%예아니오
40-601%예아니오
$3,943 거래량 2일 남음
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%예아니오
August 122%예아니오
$3,930 거래량 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%예아니오
August 312%예아니오
$87.6만 거래량 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$2.9만 거래량 2일 남음
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
확률
예 아니오
$3,441 거래량 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$10만 거래량 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%예아니오
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%예아니오
$3,171 거래량 2일 남음
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%예아니오
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%예아니오
$3,672 거래량 31/12
폴리마켓에서 더 보기 →
폴리마켓 트레이닝을 무료로 시작하세요
가상 돈으로 예측 시장 거래하기. 실제 가격, 제로 리스크. 리더보드에서 경쟁하세요.
$1K
가상 자금
500+
마켓
$0
실제 리스크
자세히 보기
실제 가격 제로 리스크 리더보드