Marchés de Prédiction Géopolitique

Les marchés de prédiction géopolitique cotent les plus grands rapports de force du monde - guerres, affrontements militaires, cessez-le-feu, négociations de paix et accords internationaux - en probabilités vivantes qui évoluent à chaque actualité. Polymarkets suit les prix réels des conflits et rapports de force actifs dans le monde, et vous permet de vous entraîner sans risque en mode entraînement avant de trader sur Polymarket.

105 marchés actifs
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%OuiNon
No Head of State7%OuiNon
$37,1 M Vol 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%OuiNon
August 1446%OuiNon
$8,1 M Vol 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%OuiNon
July 2899%OuiNon
$11,5 M Vol 31/08
Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 juillet ? Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 juillet ?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,3 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$673,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%OuiNon
September 308%OuiNon
$68,4 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%OuiNon
September 3011%OuiNon
$11,9 M Vol 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,3 M Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%OuiNon
October 3179%OuiNon
$1,9 M Vol 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%OuiNon
October 3118%OuiNon
$3,4 M Vol 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%OuiNon
July 272%OuiNon
$2,6 M Vol 2 jours restants
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%OuiNon
December 3122%OuiNon
$21,3 M Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%OuiNon
August 1517%OuiNon
$25,4 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$29 M Vol 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%OuiNon
August 1519%OuiNon
$102 k Vol 2 jours restants
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%OuiNon
September 3019%OuiNon
$8,7 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 décembre ? Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 décembre ?
52%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,3 M Vol 31/12
Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 30 septembre ? Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 30 septembre ?
19%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,3 M Vol 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%OuiNon
40+1%OuiNon
$68,3 k Vol 2 jours restants
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$213,1 k Vol 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%OuiNon
September 30September 305%OuiNon
$67,1 k Vol 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%OuiNon
December 31, 20269%OuiNon
$62,9 k Vol 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%OuiNon
September 309%OuiNon
$334,8 k Vol 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%OuiNon
March 311%OuiNon
$57,9 k Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$8,5 M Vol 2 jours restants
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$91,5 k Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%OuiNon
Benjamin Netanyahu34%OuiNon
$30,4 M Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%OuiNon
Delcy Rodríguez10%OuiNon
$94,8 M Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
de chance
Oui Non
$46,8 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%OuiNon
September 30, 202687%OuiNon
$8,6 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%OuiNon
Suisse25%OuiNon
$37 k Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
de chance
Oui Non
$53,4 k Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$202,3 k Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$8,2 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$630,6 k Vol 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%OuiNon
October 3117%OuiNon
$5,8 M Vol 31/12
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$36,9 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%OuiNon
September 30September 3019%OuiNon
$1 M Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%OuiNon
October 316%OuiNon
$17,6 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%OuiNon
April 301%OuiNon
$12,2 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%OuiNon
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%OuiNon
$20 k Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%OuiNon
Druzkhivka38%OuiNon
$19,5 k Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%OuiNon
2–6s6%OuiNon
$18,7 k Vol 2 jours restants
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%OuiNon
July 312%OuiNon
$1,3 M Vol 2 jours restants
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$18,2 k Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$53,4 k Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%OuiNon
September 3012%OuiNon
$6,1 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%OuiNon
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%OuiNon
$23 M Vol 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%OuiNon
November 3050%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
26%
de chance
Oui Non
$19,4 k Vol 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$219,2 k Vol 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
de chance
Oui Non
$364,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%OuiNon
February 28February 281%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$12,6 k Vol 31/12
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$36,9 k Vol 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$17,4 k Vol 2 jours restants
Record historique de pétrole WTI d'ici ___ ?Record historique de pétrole WTI d'ici ___ ?
December 3115%OuiNon
September 306%OuiNon
$2,2 M Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$11,2 k Vol 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$33,9 k Vol 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$11,9 k Vol 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%OuiNon
January 31January 311%OuiNon
$7,1 M Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%OuiNon
September 3088%OuiNon
$233,2 k Vol 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%OuiNon
July 2944%OuiNon
$16,9 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
de chance
Oui Non
$836,6 k Vol 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%OuiNon
December13%OuiNon
$159,7 k Vol 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%OuiNon
October 3156%OuiNon
$1,4 M Vol 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%OuiNon
August 1846%OuiNon
$16,9 k Vol 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%OuiNon
October 3114%OuiNon
$235,3 k Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
États-Unis1%OuiNon
Italy1%OuiNon
$8,2 k Vol 2 jours restants
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,9 k Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%OuiNon
December 31, 20263%OuiNon
$1,4 M Vol 31/12
Combien de navires traverseront le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 27 juillet ?Combien de navires traverseront le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 27 juillet ?
50-7443%OuiNon
75-9919%OuiNon
$9,1 k Vol 4 jours restants
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
de chance
Oui Non
$7,3 k Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%OuiNon
September 3039%OuiNon
$7,2 k Vol 31/12
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3140%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$6,8 k Vol 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$10 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,5 M Vol 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$474,7 k Vol 2 jours restants
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$47,6 k Vol 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%OuiNon
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%OuiNon
$406,5 k Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
de chance
Oui Non
$17,4 k Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$21,7 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 M Vol 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%OuiNon
No prison time34%OuiNon
$657,3 k Vol 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%OuiNon
July 315%OuiNon
$187,9 k Vol 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%OuiNon
August 1530%OuiNon
$4,8 k Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%OuiNon
September 30September 305%OuiNon
$4,7 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 juillet ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 juillet ?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$19,4 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%OuiNon
July 141%OuiNon
$134,4 k Vol 2 jours restants
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%OuiNon
August 317%OuiNon
$952,5 k Vol
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$20,4 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$57,4 k Vol 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%OuiNon
40-601%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 2 jours restants
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%OuiNon
August 122%OuiNon
$3,9 k Vol 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%OuiNon
August 312%OuiNon
$875,9 k Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$28,6 k Vol 2 jours restants
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$3,4 k Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$100,2 k Vol 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%OuiNon
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%OuiNon
$3,2 k Vol 2 jours restants
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%OuiNon
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%OuiNon
$3,7 k Vol 31/12
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