Cuba · Venezuela

US military action against Cuba by...?

$7M Volume
31/12/2026 00:00
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December 31
$4.9M Volume
33%
Resolved 2
January 31
$534.5K Volume
No
March 31
$1.6M Volume
No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.

Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for US military action against Cuba by?
The market prices Yes at only 33%, with No at 68%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for US military action against Cuba by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 33%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the US military action against Cuba by market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on US military action against Cuba by?
$7M in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade US military action against Cuba by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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