🌍 预测市场：地缘政治

105 活跃市场

Geopolitics prediction markets — wars, international deals and global power shifts

Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%是否
No Head of State7%是否
$3,709.7万 成交量 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%是否
August 1446%是否
$806.5万 成交量 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
概率
是 否
$160.3万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%是否
July 2899%是否
$1,146.5万 成交量 31/08
7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
1%
概率
是 否
$134.2万 成交量 今日截止
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$67.3万 成交量 今日截止
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%是否
September 308%是否
$6,836.2万 成交量 今日截止
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%是否
September 3011%是否
$1,187.5万 成交量 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$134.2万 成交量 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%是否
October 3179%是否
$190.7万 成交量 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%是否
October 3118%是否
$341.2万 成交量 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%是否
July 272%是否
$264.6万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%是否
December 3122%是否
$2,132.4万 成交量 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%是否
August 1517%是否
$2,537.5万 成交量 今日截止
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%是否
September 305%是否
$2,896万 成交量 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%是否
August 1519%是否
$10.2万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%是否
September 3019%是否
$873.9万 成交量 今日截止
12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
52%
概率
是 否
$134.2万 成交量 31/12
9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
19%
概率
是 否
$134.2万 成交量 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%是否
40+1%是否
$6.8万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$21.3万 成交量 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%是否
September 30September 305%是否
$6.7万 成交量 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%是否
December 31, 20269%是否
$6.3万 成交量 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%是否
September 309%是否
$33.5万 成交量 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%是否
March 311%是否
$5.8万 成交量 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%是否
July 311%是否
$854.8万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$9.1万 成交量 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%是否
Benjamin Netanyahu34%是否
$3,036.1万 成交量 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%是否
Delcy Rodríguez10%是否
$9,476.4万 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
概率
是 否
$4.7万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%是否
September 30, 202687%是否
$855.7万 成交量 今日截止
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%是否
瑞士25%是否
$3.7万 成交量 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
概率
是 否
$5.3万 成交量 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$20.2万 成交量 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%是否
September 305%是否
$819.2万 成交量 今日截止
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$63.1万 成交量 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$111.9万 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%是否
October 3117%是否
$575.5万 成交量 31/12
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
9%
概率
是 否
$3.7万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%是否
September 30September 3019%是否
$103.2万 成交量 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%是否
October 316%是否
$1,760.1万 成交量 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%是否
April 301%是否
$1,216.9万 成交量 今日截止
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%是否
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%是否
$2万 成交量 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%是否
Druzkhivka38%是否
$1.9万 成交量 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%是否
2–6s6%是否
$1.9万 成交量 还剩 2 天
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%是否
July 312%是否
$130.2万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
概率
是 否
$1.8万 成交量 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
概率
是 否
$5.3万 成交量 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%是否
September 3012%是否
$611.1万 成交量 今日截止
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%是否
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%是否
$2,301万 成交量 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%是否
November 3050%是否
$211.8万 成交量 31/12
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
26%
概率
是 否
$1.9万 成交量 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$21.9万 成交量 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
概率
是 否
$36.4万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%是否
February 28February 281%是否
$107.3万 成交量 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$1.3万 成交量 31/12
伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？
3%
概率
是 否
$3.7万 成交量 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$1.7万 成交量 还剩 2 天
WTI原油在___前创历史新高？WTI原油在___前创历史新高？
December 3115%是否
September 306%是否
$217.4万 成交量 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
概率
是 否
$1.1万 成交量 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$3.4万 成交量 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$1.2万 成交量 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%是否
January 31January 311%是否
$708.5万 成交量 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
概率
是 否
$157.1万 成交量 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%是否
September 3088%是否
$23.3万 成交量 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%是否
July 2944%是否
$1.7万 成交量 今日截止
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
概率
是 否
$83.7万 成交量 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%是否
December13%是否
$16万 成交量 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%是否
October 3156%是否
$140.4万 成交量 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%是否
August 1846%是否
$1.7万 成交量 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%是否
October 3114%是否
$23.5万 成交量 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
美国1%是否
Italy1%是否
$8,167 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,158 成交量 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
概率
是 否
$7,869 成交量 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%是否
December 31, 20263%是否
$139.4万 成交量 31/12
7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？
50-7443%是否
75-9919%是否
$9,143 成交量 还剩 4 天
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%是否
June 301%是否
$209.5万 成交量 今日截止
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
概率
是 否
$7,312 成交量 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%是否
September 3039%是否
$7,215 成交量 31/12
Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？Netanyahu会在...前下台吗？
December 3140%是否
July 311%是否
$6,828 成交量 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%是否
July 311%是否
$998.5万 成交量 今日截止
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
概率
是 否
$1,052.9万 成交量 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%是否
July 311%是否
$47.5万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$4.8万 成交量 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%是否
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%是否
$40.6万 成交量 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
概率
是 否
$1.7万 成交量 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%是否
June 301%是否
$2,169.9万 成交量 今日截止
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$349.2万 成交量 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%是否
No prison time34%是否
$65.7万 成交量 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%是否
July 315%是否
$18.8万 成交量 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%是否
August 1530%是否
$4,833 成交量 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%是否
September 30September 305%是否
$4,687 成交量 今日截止
伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
1%
概率
是 否
$1.9万 成交量 今日截止
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%是否
July 141%是否
$13.4万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%是否
August 317%是否
$95.3万 成交量
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
概率
是 否
$2万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$5.7万 成交量 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%是否
40-601%是否
$3,943 成交量 还剩 2 天
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%是否
August 122%是否
$3,930 成交量 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%是否
August 312%是否
$87.6万 成交量 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
概率
是 否
$2.9万 成交量 还剩 2 天
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$3,441 成交量 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$10万 成交量 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%是否
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%是否
$3,171 成交量 还剩 2 天
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%是否
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%是否
$3,672 成交量 31/12
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