On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
August 31
$187K Volume
5%
Resolved 1
July 31
$88.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
Yes is priced at 4% and No at 96%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
Traders currently imply a 4% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Sep 2026 (8 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by?
Total traded volume on this market is $275.9K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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