This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
December 31
$155K Volume
15%
Resolved 3
July 31
$193.3K Volume
No
August 31
$60.1K Volume
No
October 31
$105.3K Volume
No
Relevant Guides
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by?
Yes is priced at 14% and No at 87%, based on live Polymarket order-book trading. Prices move in real time as traders buy and sell.
What do traders predict for IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by?
Traders currently imply a 14% chance for Yes. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.
When does the IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by market resolve?
This market is scheduled to resolve on 1 Jan 2027 (59 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.
How much money is trading on IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by?
Total traded volume on this market is $513.7K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.
How can I trade IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by on Polymarket?
You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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