Oil · Iran

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?

$12.9K Volume
02/08/2026 23:59
View on Polymarket
View on Official Site Trade with real money on Polymarket
<25
$5.7K Volume
2%
25-49
$9.6K Volume
23%
50-74
$3.4K Volume
44%
75-99
$4.9K Volume
23%
100+
$5.6K Volume
18%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
Even the leader is cheap - 50-74 trades at 43%, 75-99 at 22%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
Right now the market's best guess is 50-74 at 43% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 2 Aug 2026 (4 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
Traders have put $12.9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

Similar Markets

↓ $8034%YesNo
↑ $9014%YesNo
August 319%
August 152%
December 3125%YesNo
September 3020%YesNo
30+2%YesNo
40+1%YesNo
↓ $8579%YesNo
↓ $8075%YesNo
United States1%YesNo
Italy1%YesNo
Trade on Polymarket
Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more