This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
December 31, 2026
$388.7K Volume
4%
Resolved 2
December 31, 2025
$277K Volume
No
June 30, 2026
$741.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any country leave NATO by?
The market prices Yes at only 3%, with No at 97%. Traders currently see this as unlikely - but live odds are a forecast, not a verdict.
What do traders predict for Will any country leave NATO by?
No strong consensus yet: Yes tops the implied probabilities at just 3%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Will any country leave NATO by market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (131 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Will any country leave NATO by?
Total turnover stands at $1.4M. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Will any country leave NATO by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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