Mercados de Predicción de Geopolítica

Los mercados de predicción de geopolítica ponen precio a las mayores luchas de poder del mundo - guerras, choques militares, altos el fuego, negociaciones de paz y acuerdos internacionales - como probabilidades vivas que cambian con cada titular. Polymarkets sigue los precios reales de los conflictos y cambios de poder activos en todo el mundo, y te deja practicar sin riesgo en el modo entrenamiento antes de operar en Polymarket.

105 mercados activos
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%SíNo
No Head of State7%SíNo
$37,1 M Vol 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%SíNo
August 1446%SíNo
$8,1 M Vol 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%SíNo
July 2899%SíNo
$11,5 M Vol 31/08
¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de julio? ¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de julio?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,3 M Vol Termina hoy
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3174%
$673,1 mil Vol Termina hoy
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%SíNo
September 308%SíNo
$68,4 M Vol Termina hoy
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%SíNo
September 3011%SíNo
$11,9 M Vol 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,3 M Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3185%SíNo
October 3179%SíNo
$1,9 M Vol 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%SíNo
October 3118%SíNo
$3,4 M Vol 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%SíNo
July 272%SíNo
$2,6 M Vol 2 días restantes
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%SíNo
December 3122%SíNo
$21,3 M Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%SíNo
August 1517%SíNo
$25,4 M Vol Termina hoy
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%SíNo
September 305%SíNo
$29 M Vol 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%SíNo
August 1519%SíNo
$102 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3123%SíNo
September 3019%SíNo
$8,7 M Vol Termina hoy
¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de diciembre?
52%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,3 M Vol 31/12
¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 30 de septiembre? ¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 30 de septiembre?
19%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,3 M Vol 30/09
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%SíNo
40+1%SíNo
$68,3 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$213,1 mil Vol 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%SíNo
September 30September 305%SíNo
$67,1 mil Vol 31/12
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%SíNo
December 31, 20269%SíNo
$62,9 mil Vol 30/06
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%SíNo
September 309%SíNo
$334,8 mil Vol 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%SíNo
March 311%SíNo
$57,9 mil Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$8,5 M Vol 2 días restantes
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3198%
$91,5 mil Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SíNo
Benjamin Netanyahu34%SíNo
$30,4 M Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SíNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SíNo
$94,8 M Vol 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$46,8 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%SíNo
September 30, 202687%SíNo
$8,6 M Vol Termina hoy
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%SíNo
Suiza25%SíNo
$37 mil Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$53,4 mil Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$202,3 mil Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%SíNo
September 305%SíNo
$8,2 M Vol Termina hoy
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$630,6 mil Vol 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SíNo
October 3117%SíNo
$5,8 M Vol 31/12
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$36,9 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%SíNo
September 30September 3019%SíNo
$1 M Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SíNo
October 316%SíNo
$17,6 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SíNo
April 301%SíNo
$12,2 M Vol Termina hoy
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%SíNo
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%SíNo
$20 mil Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%SíNo
Druzkhivka38%SíNo
$19,5 mil Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%SíNo
2–6s6%SíNo
$18,7 mil Vol 2 días restantes
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%SíNo
July 312%SíNo
$1,3 M Vol 2 días restantes
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$18,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$53,4 mil Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%SíNo
September 3012%SíNo
$6,1 M Vol Termina hoy
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%SíNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SíNo
$23 M Vol 10/10
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%SíNo
November 3050%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
26%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$19,4 mil Vol 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$219,2 mil Vol 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$364,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3078%SíNo
February 28February 281%SíNo
$1,1 M Vol 30/09
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$12,6 mil Vol 31/12
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$36,9 mil Vol 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$17,4 mil Vol 2 días restantes
¿Máximo histórico de crudo WTI antes de ___?¿Máximo histórico de crudo WTI antes de ___?
December 3115%SíNo
September 306%SíNo
$2,2 M Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$11,2 mil Vol 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 317%
August 3119%
$33,9 mil Vol 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$11,9 mil Vol 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%SíNo
January 31January 311%SíNo
$7,1 M Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%SíNo
September 3088%SíNo
$233,2 mil Vol 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%SíNo
July 2944%SíNo
$16,9 mil Vol Termina hoy
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$836,6 mil Vol 20/08
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%SíNo
December13%SíNo
$159,7 mil Vol 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%SíNo
October 3156%SíNo
$1,4 M Vol 31/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%SíNo
August 1846%SíNo
$16,9 mil Vol 31/08
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SíNo
October 3114%SíNo
$235,3 mil Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Estados Unidos1%SíNo
Italy1%SíNo
$8,2 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$8,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,9 mil Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SíNo
December 31, 20263%SíNo
$1,4 M Vol 31/12
¿Cuántos barcos cruzarán el estrecho de Ormuz la semana del 27 de julio?¿Cuántos barcos cruzarán el estrecho de Ormuz la semana del 27 de julio?
50-7443%SíNo
75-9919%SíNo
$9,1 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%SíNo
June 301%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol Termina hoy
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$7,3 mil Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3145%SíNo
September 3039%SíNo
$7,2 mil Vol 31/12
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3140%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$6,8 mil Vol 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$10 M Vol Termina hoy
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,5 M Vol 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3110%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$474,7 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$47,6 mil Vol 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%SíNo
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%SíNo
$406,5 mil Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$17,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%SíNo
June 301%SíNo
$21,7 M Vol Termina hoy
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 M Vol 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%SíNo
No prison time34%SíNo
$657,3 mil Vol 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%SíNo
July 315%SíNo
$187,9 mil Vol 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SíNo
August 1530%SíNo
$4,8 mil Vol 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%SíNo
September 30September 305%SíNo
$4,7 mil Vol Termina hoy
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de julio? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de julio?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$19,4 mil Vol Termina hoy
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%SíNo
July 141%SíNo
$134,4 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%SíNo
August 317%SíNo
$952,5 mil Vol
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$20,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$57,4 mil Vol 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%SíNo
40-601%SíNo
$3,9 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%SíNo
August 122%SíNo
$3,9 mil Vol 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%SíNo
August 312%SíNo
$875,9 mil Vol 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$28,6 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$3,4 mil Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3129%
$100,2 mil Vol 31/08
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron33%SíNo
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%SíNo
$3,2 mil Vol 2 días restantes
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%SíNo
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%SíNo
$3,7 mil Vol 31/12
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