Mercados de Previsão de Geopolítica

Os mercados de previsão de geopolítica atribuem preço às maiores disputas de poder do mundo - guerras, confrontos militares, cessar-fogo, negociações de paz e acordos internacionais - como probabilidades vivas que mudam a cada notícia. A Polymarkets acompanha os preços reais dos conflitos e mudanças de poder ativos em todo o mundo, e deixa-o praticar sem risco no modo de treino antes de negociar na Polymarket.

114 mercados ativos
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%SimNão
August 1444%SimNão
$8,1 mi Volume 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%SimNão
No Head of State8%SimNão
$37 mi Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
26%
chance
Sim Não
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de julho? O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de julho?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$1,4 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%SimNão
July 2899%SimNão
$11,4 mi Volume 31/08
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3182%
$664 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$68,4 mi Volume Encerra hoje
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%SimNão
September 3011%SimNão
$11,9 mi Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,4 mi Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3186%SimNão
October 3179%SimNão
$1,9 mi Volume 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%SimNão
October 3119%SimNão
$3,4 mi Volume 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3136%SimNão
July 272%SimNão
$2,6 mi Volume 2 dias restantes
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202726%SimNão
December 3122%SimNão
$21,3 mi Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3131%SimNão
August 1519%SimNão
$25,4 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%SimNão
August 1520%SimNão
$108,3 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%SimNão
September 305%SimNão
$29 mi Volume 31/12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3124%SimNão
September 3020%SimNão
$8,7 mi Volume Encerra hoje
O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de dezembro? O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de dezembro?
52%
chance
Sim Não
$1,4 mi Volume 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%SimNão
40+1%SimNão
$70,4 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%SimNão
December 31, 20269%SimNão
$70,1 mil Volume 30/06
O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 30 de setembro? O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 30 de setembro?
19%
chance
Sim Não
$1,4 mi Volume 30/09
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SimNão
Benjamin Netanyahu34%SimNão
$30,4 mi Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$213 mil Volume 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%SimNão
September 30September 305%SimNão
$67,1 mil Volume 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$8,5 mi Volume 2 dias restantes
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3123%SimNão
September 309%SimNão
$334,8 mil Volume 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%SimNão
March 311%SimNão
$57,9 mil Volume 31/12
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3099%
December 3199%
$91,4 mil Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SimNão
Delcy Rodríguez10%SimNão
$94,8 mi Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
chance
Sim Não
$46,9 mil Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%SimNão
September 30, 202687%SimNão
$8,6 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12%
chance
Sim Não
$59,5 mil Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%SimNão
Suíça25%SimNão
$36,7 mil Volume 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%SimNão
September 3012%SimNão
$6,1 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$102,4 mil Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%SimNão
September 305%SimNão
$8,2 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$630,5 mil Volume 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$1,1 mi Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SimNão
October 3117%SimNão
$5,8 mi Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3150%SimNão
September 30September 3019%SimNão
$1 mi Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SimNão
April 301%SimNão
$12,2 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SimNão
October 316%SimNão
$17,6 mi Volume 31/12
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
9%
chance
Sim Não
$33,2 mil Volume 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake97%SimNão
Photographed only2%SimNão
$20,9 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner79%SimNão
Mark RutteMark Rutte76%SimNão
$18,8 mil Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%SimNão
July 312%SimNão
$1,3 mi Volume 2 dias restantes
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$18,3 mil Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$59,5 mil Volume 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%SimNão
Druzkhivka38%SimNão
$16,9 mil Volume 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%SimNão
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SimNão
$23 mi Volume 10/10
Máxima histórica de petróleo WTI até ___?Máxima histórica de petróleo WTI até ___?
December 3115%SimNão
September 306%SimNão
$2,2 mi Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3077%SimNão
February 28February 281%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 30/09
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
26%
chance
Sim Não
$19,5 mil Volume 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$219,2 mil Volume 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
10%
chance
Sim Não
$364,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202653%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 31/12
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Modi out by December 31, 2026?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$12,6 mil Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3155%
$57,4 mil Volume 31/12
O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de setembro? O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de setembro?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$33,2 mil Volume 30/09
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$17,4 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 316%
August 3120%
$33,9 mil Volume 31/08
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$11,2 mil Volume 31/12
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3194%
$11,7 mil Volume 31/08
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3129%SimNão
January 31January 311%SimNão
$7,1 mi Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
chance
Sim Não
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
53%
chance
Sim Não
$836,6 mil Volume 20/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%SimNão
July 2946%SimNão
$16,8 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%SimNão
December13%SimNão
$159,7 mil Volume 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3165%SimNão
October 3155%SimNão
$1,4 mi Volume 31/08
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Estados Unidos1%SimNão
Italy1%SimNão
$8,2 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1746%SimNão
August 1846%SimNão
$16,8 mil Volume 31/08
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3113%
June 301%
$8,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3188%SimNão
September 3087%SimNão
$231,8 mil Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
chance
Sim Não
$7,9 mil Volume 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SimNão
December 31, 20263%SimNão
$1,4 mi Volume 31/12
Quantos navios cruzarão o o estreito de Ormuz na semana de 27 de julho?Quantos navios cruzarão o o estreito de Ormuz na semana de 27 de julho?
50-7443%SimNão
75-9920%SimNão
$9,2 mil Volume 4 dias restantes
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3124%SimNão
June 301%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?
December 3140%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$7,3 mil Volume 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3151%SimNão
September 3039%SimNão
$7,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?
2%
chance
Sim Não
$7,1 mil Volume 31/12
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$10,5 mi Volume 31/12
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$10 mi Volume Encerra hoje
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3112%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$474,7 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
September 3035%
December 3166%
$47,6 mil Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
71%
chance
Sim Não
$17,4 mil Volume 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%SimNão
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)29%SimNão
$406,1 mil Volume 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3137%SimNão
July 315%SimNão
$187,9 mil Volume 31/08
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%SimNão
June 301%SimNão
$21,7 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland22%SimNão
Catar13%SimNão
$5,2 mil Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+45%SimNão
No prison time34%SimNão
$657,3 mil Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SimNão
August 1534%SimNão
$4,9 mil Volume 31/08
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SimNão
August 1534%SimNão
$4,9 mil Volume 31/08
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3140%SimNão
September 30September 305%SimNão
$4,7 mil Volume Encerra hoje
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de julho? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de julho?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$19,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%SimNão
July 141%SimNão
$134,4 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SimNão
October 3114%SimNão
$231,1 mil Volume 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%SimNão
August 318%SimNão
$952,5 mil Volume
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
13%
chance
Sim Não
$20,4 mil Volume 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2098%SimNão
40-601%SimNão
$4 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
July 2823%SimNão
August 122%SimNão
$4 mil Volume 31/08
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%SimNão
August 312%SimNão
$875,9 mil Volume 31/12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
22%
chance
Sim Não
$4 mil Volume 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 mi Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$28,6 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026? Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$3,4 mil Volume 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3128%
$100,2 mil Volume 31/08
Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?Will Russia enter Khatnie by...?
December 31December 3134%SimNão
July 31July 311%SimNão
$3,2 mil Volume 31/12
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron34%SimNão
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva30%SimNão
$3,2 mil Volume 2 dias restantes
Who will Trump meet with in 2026?Who will Trump meet with in 2026?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman68%SimNão
Vladimir PutinVladimir Putin31%SimNão
$3,7 mil Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
11%
chance
Sim Não
$3,2 mi Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3133%
$77,7 mil Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3113%
June 301%
$2,1 mi Volume 31/12
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
26%
chance
Sim Não
$109,6 mil Volume 31/12
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202790%SimNão
SuíçaSuíça3%SimNão
$2,9 mil Volume 31/12
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