Mercados de Predicción de Geopolítica

Los mercados de predicción de geopolítica ponen precio a las mayores luchas de poder del mundo - guerras, choques militares, altos el fuego, negociaciones de paz y acuerdos internacionales - como probabilidades vivas que cambian con cada titular. Polymarkets sigue los precios reales de los conflictos y cambios de poder activos en todo el mundo, y te deja practicar sin riesgo en el modo entrenamiento antes de operar en Polymarket.

96 mercados activos
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U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$707,8 mil Vol Termina hoy
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%SíNo
August 1437%SíNo
$8,9 M Vol 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%SíNo
December 3150%SíNo
$2,8 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%SíNo
July 2999%SíNo
$12,2 M Vol 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%SíNo
September 307%SíNo
$68,9 M Vol Termina hoy
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%SíNo
December 3122%SíNo
$21,7 M Vol 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$279,6 mil Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%SíNo
August 1513%SíNo
$25,6 M Vol Termina hoy
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%SíNo
October 3118%SíNo
$3,6 M Vol 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%SíNo
September 309%SíNo
$12,1 M Vol 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%SíNo
September 3012%SíNo
$8,9 M Vol Termina hoy
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$530,3 mil Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%SíNo
October 3180%SíNo
$2,1 M Vol 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%SíNo
December 31, 20269%SíNo
$98,5 mil Vol 30/06
¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 30 de septiembre? ¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 30 de septiembre?
17%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$530,3 mil Vol 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%SíNo
August 1518%SíNo
$86,4 mil Vol Termina hoy
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%SíNo
July 316%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%SíNo
September 30, 202687%SíNo
$8,6 M Vol Termina hoy
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%SíNo
80+1%SíNo
$59,3 mil Vol Termina hoy
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes de 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$82,9 mil Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%SíNo
September 305%SíNo
$8,2 M Vol Termina hoy
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3141%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$50,9 mil Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$8,6 M Vol Termina hoy
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$681,6 mil Vol 31/08
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%SíNo
SuizaSuiza3%SíNo
$47,4 mil Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SíNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%SíNo
$30,5 M Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SíNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SíNo
$94,8 M Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$107,2 mil Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%SíNo
August 3111%SíNo
$1,7 M Vol Termina hoy
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$107,2 mil Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3153%SíNo
September 3025%SíNo
$37,7 mil Vol 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%SíNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SíNo
$23 M Vol 10/10
¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre? ¿Caerá el régimen iraní antes del 30 de septiembre?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$82,9 mil Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$107,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%SíNo
February 28February 281%SíNo
$1,1 M Vol 30/09
¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿El tráfico en el estrecho de Ormuz volverá a la normalidad antes del 31 de diciembre?
51%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$530,3 mil Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$269,3 mil Vol 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%SíNo
July 1299%SíNo
$2,7 M Vol Termina hoy
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3157%SíNo
September 30September 3019%SíNo
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$39,1 mil Vol 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$27,1 mil Vol 30/06
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SíNo
August 1530%SíNo
$17,1 mil Vol 31/08
¿Máximo histórico de crudo WTI antes de ___?¿Máximo histórico de crudo WTI antes de ___?
December 3115%SíNo
September 305%SíNo
$2,2 M Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%SíNo
Druzkhivka44%SíNo
$14,9 mil Vol 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$586,5 mil Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Australia2%SíNo
Estados Unidos1%SíNo
$14,1 mil Vol Termina hoy
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%SíNo
Suiza25%SíNo
$13,3 mil Vol 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$26,2 mil Vol Termina hoy
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$235,4 mil Vol 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%SíNo
No Head of State7%SíNo
$37,4 M Vol 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%SíNo
September 305%SíNo
$29 M Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%SíNo
2–6s3%SíNo
$11,1 mil Vol Termina hoy
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$851,2 mil Vol 20/08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,6 mil Vol 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%SíNo
August 316%SíNo
$962,5 mil Vol
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$1,3 M Vol Termina hoy
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%SíNo
January 31January 311%SíNo
$7,1 M Vol 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SíNo
October 3116%SíNo
$244,3 mil Vol 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,2 M Vol 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%SíNo
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%SíNo
$8,3 mil Vol 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84,3 mil Vol 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%SíNo
October 3154%SíNo
$1,4 M Vol 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$122,1 mil Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$82,1 mil Vol 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3173%SíNo
ChinaChina15%SíNo
$7,3 mil Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%SíNo
September 309%SíNo
$6,1 M Vol Termina hoy
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%SíNo
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham83%SíNo
$30,7 mil Vol 31/12
¿Cuántos barcos cruzarán el estrecho de Ormuz la semana del 27 de julio?¿Cuántos barcos cruzarán el estrecho de Ormuz la semana del 27 de julio?
50-7455%SíNo
75-9923%SíNo
$16 mil Vol 3 días restantes
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3160%
$64,9 mil Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SíNo
April 301%SíNo
$12,2 M Vol Termina hoy
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$488,5 mil Vol Termina hoy
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%SíNo
June 301%SíNo
$21,7 M Vol Termina hoy
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%SíNo
August 312%SíNo
$882,1 mil Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$6,1 mil Vol Termina hoy
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%SíNo
August 642%SíNo
$7 mil Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$105,7 mil Vol 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$5,2 mil Vol 31/12
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8846%SíNo
9933%SíNo
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SíNo
October 3116%SíNo
$5,8 M Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SíNo
October 316%SíNo
$17,6 M Vol 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%SíNo
September 3038%SíNo
$233,5 mil Vol 31/12
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan42%SíNo
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi41%SíNo
$159,4 mil Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 31/12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$4,2 mil Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$4,2 mil Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SíNo
December 31, 20263%SíNo
$1,4 M Vol 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3120%SíNo
September 3012%SíNo
$630,1 mil Vol Termina hoy
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,5 M Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3121%
October 3138%
$12,9 mil Vol 31/10
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%SíNo
September 304%SíNo
$525 mil Vol 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%SíNo
December13%SíNo
$163,4 mil Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3137%
$81,1 mil Vol 31/12
¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre? ¿Irán aceptará detener el enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 31 de diciembre?
25%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$18,8 mil Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$10,8 mil Vol 31/12
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