Iran coup attempt by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

The prediction market regarding a potential coup attempt in Iran by June 30, 2026, currently reflects a 12.0% probability, with a trading volume of $501,000. This market serves as a barometer for geopolitical stability in Iran, allowing traders to speculate on the likelihood of significant political upheaval in the region. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for investors and policymakers, as a coup could have far-reaching implications for both regional security and global oil markets.