This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
None before 2027
$5.7K Volume
43%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$542 Volume
17%
Lecornu - France PM
$537 Volume
9%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$555 Volume
8%
Albanese - Australia PM
$498 Volume
6%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$5.5K Volume
6%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$758 Volume
5%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$448 Volume
3%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$899 Volume
3%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$1.4K Volume
1%
Putin - Russia President
$704 Volume
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$409 Volume
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$376 Volume
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$673 Volume
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$435 Volume
2%
Merz - German Chancellor
$398 Volume
1%
Macron - France President
$319 Volume
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$338 Volume
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$286 Volume
1%
Trump - USA President
$329 Volume
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$370 Volume
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$483 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)?
The field is wide open: None before 2027 tops it at just 43%, with Netanyahu - Israel PM close behind at 17%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)?
No strong consensus yet: None before 2027 tops the implied probabilities at just 43%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro) market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)?
Traders have put $7.9K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro) on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
Starmer - UK PM98%YesNo
Putin - Russia President1%YesNo
Andy Burnham99%YesNo
Nigel Farage1%YesNo
No next Home Secretary in 202691%YesNo
Yvette Cooper8%YesNo
No next Foreign Secretary in 202635%YesNo
Wes Streeting34%YesNo
Andy Burnham99%YesNo
Wes Streeting1%YesNo
Shabana Mahmood97%YesNo
Ed Miliband97%YesNo
July 3199%YesNo
July 172%YesNo
September 3099%YesNo
July 3198%YesNo
