Mercati di previsione geopolitici

I mercati di previsione geopolitici prezzano le più grandi lotte per il potere del mondo: guerre, scontri militari, sanzioni, negoziati di pace e accordi internazionali, come probabilità live che si aggiornano a ogni notizia.

Su Polymarket questi mercati hanno spesso una liquidità profonda attorno a eventi in rapida evoluzione e durano settimane o mesi. Polymarkets segue i prezzi e le quote reali dei conflitti attivi e dei cambi di potere nel mondo, così puoi leggere la visione della folla in tempo reale, confrontare gli scenari ed esercitarti senza rischi in modalità allenamento prima di fare trading su Polymarket.

106 mercati attivi
Ordina
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 3099%SìNo
July 2999%SìNo
$12,9 Mln Volume 31/08
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3149%SìNo
August 1435%SìNo
$9,1 Mln Volume 31/08
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$845.417 Volume Termina oggi
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202665%SìNo
December 3150%SìNo
$3 Mln Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
probabilità
Sì No
$522.614 Volume 31/12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3115%SìNo
September 308%SìNo
$68,9 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%SìNo
December 3122%SìNo
$21,8 Mln Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3133%SìNo
August 1527%SìNo
$25,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%SìNo
October 3117%SìNo
$3,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3121%SìNo
September 3016%SìNo
$9 Mln Volume Termina oggi
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%SìNo
September 309%SìNo
$12,1 Mln Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$526.158 Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%SìNo
October 3181%SìNo
$2,1 Mln Volume 31/08
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
September 3059%SìNo
August 3132%SìNo
$115.868 Volume Termina oggi
Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 30 settembre? Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 30 settembre?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$526.158 Volume 30/09
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1511%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$8,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%SìNo
December 31, 20269%SìNo
$92.405 Volume 30/06
Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027? Il regime iraniano cadrà prima del 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$112.596 Volume 31/12
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%SìNo
July 315%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%SìNo
September 30, 202684%SìNo
$8,6 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$690.883 Volume 31/08
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%SìNo
80+1%SìNo
$57.316 Volume Termina oggi
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SìNo
Delcy Rodríguez10%SìNo
$94,8 Mln Volume 31/12
Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?Netanyahu fuori dalla carica entro...?
December 3141%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$50.674 Volume 31/12
Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 dicembre? Il traffico nello lo stretto di Hormuz tornerà normale entro il 31 dicembre?
50%
probabilità
Sì No
$526.158 Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%SìNo
September 306%SìNo
$8,2 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%SìNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SìNo
$23,1 Mln Volume 10/10
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%SìNo
August 3118%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$105.748 Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$105.748 Volume 31/12
Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre? Il regime iraniano cadrà entro il 30 settembre?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$112.596 Volume 30/09
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3157%SìNo
September 3026%SìNo
$36.627 Volume 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot51%SìNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%SìNo
$30,5 Mln Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3155%SìNo
August 1532%SìNo
$27.346 Volume 31/08
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
15%
probabilità
Sì No
$105.748 Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3155%SìNo
September 30September 3019%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%SìNo
SvizzeraSvizzera3%SìNo
$23.223 Volume 31/12
Massimo storico di petrolio WTI entro ___?Massimo storico di petrolio WTI entro ___?
December 3116%SìNo
September 305%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 319%
June 301%
$3,5 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$271.587 Volume 30/09
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei78%SìNo
No Head of State9%SìNo
$37,4 Mln Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3042%SìNo
Svizzera24%SìNo
$20.810 Volume 30/09
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
probabilità
Sì No
$42.098 Volume 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202733%
$27.094 Volume 30/06
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
44%
probabilità
Sì No
$859.762 Volume 20/08
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3122%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$1,3 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
probabilità
Sì No
$586.649 Volume 31/12
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$13.605 Volume 31/12
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
15%
probabilità
Sì No
$13.191 Volume 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Australia2%SìNo
Stati Uniti1%SìNo
$15.371 Volume Termina oggi
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
99%
probabilità
Sì No
$29.517 Volume Termina oggi
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$12.315 Volume 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%SìNo
July 1299%SìNo
$2,7 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Who will Trump meet with in July?Who will Trump meet with in July?
Mohammed bin SalmanMohammed bin Salman4%SìNo
Kim Jong UnKim Jong Un1%SìNo
$15.271 Volume Termina oggi
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8847%SìNo
9933%SìNo
$1,6 Mln Volume 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%SìNo
2–6s3%SìNo
$10.627 Volume Termina oggi
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
probabilità
Sì No
$10.528 Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3110%SìNo
September 305%SìNo
$29 Mln Volume 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia74%SìNo
Druzkhivka47%SìNo
$9.682 Volume 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SìNo
October 3116%SìNo
$244.294 Volume 31/12
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%SìNo
January 31January 311%SìNo
$7,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%SìNo
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%SìNo
$8.307 Volume 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84.344 Volume 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$122.086 Volume 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$236.170 Volume 31/08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,2 Mln Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202651%SìNo
December13%SìNo
$167.684 Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$82.079 Volume 30/09
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%SìNo
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham77%SìNo
$30.994 Volume 31/12
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3172%SìNo
ChinaChina15%SìNo
$7.304 Volume 31/12
Quante navi attraverseranno lo lo stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 27 luglio?Quante navi attraverseranno lo lo stretto di Hormuz nella settimana del 27 luglio?
50-7455%SìNo
75-9922%SìNo
$15.263 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%SìNo
October 3154%SìNo
$1,4 Mln Volume 31/08
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%SìNo
July 314%SìNo
$489.639 Volume Termina oggi
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SìNo
October 316%SìNo
$17,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$5.866 Volume Termina oggi
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
4%
probabilità
Sì No
$11,7 Mln Volume 31/12
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3131%
$105.745 Volume 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
probabilità
Sì No
$5.227 Volume 31/12
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%SìNo
August 642%SìNo
$6.551 Volume 31/08
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3124%
October 3136%
$14.287 Volume 31/10
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%SìNo
August 312%SìNo
$882.291 Volume 31/12
Will Venezuela become 51st state? Will Venezuela become 51st state?
3%
probabilità
Sì No
$392.092 Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3123%SìNo
October 3111%SìNo
$939.257 Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2,1 Mln Volume 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%SìNo
September 309%SìNo
$6,1 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3022%
December 3159%
$65.608 Volume 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SìNo
December 31, 20263%SìNo
$1,4 Mln Volume 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$4.151 Volume 31/12
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?
June 30, 20261%
December 31, 202620%
$553.693 Volume 31/12
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3129%SìNo
July 311%SìNo
$203.125 Volume 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
9%
probabilità
Sì No
$368.099 Volume 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3119%SìNo
September 3012%SìNo
$630.148 Volume Termina oggi
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
probabilità
Sì No
$10,5 Mln Volume 31/12
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%SìNo
September 304%SìNo
$524.981 Volume 31/12
L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre? L'Iran accetterà di fermare l'arricchimento dell'uranio entro il 31 dicembre?
25%
probabilità
Sì No
$18.815 Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
probabilità
Sì No
$1,6 Mln Volume 31/12
Who will Trump meet with in August?Who will Trump meet with in August?
Joseph AounJoseph Aoun29%SìNo
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy12%SìNo
$15.271 Volume 31/08
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
22%
probabilità
Sì No
$10.814 Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SìNo
April 301%SìNo
$12,2 Mln Volume Termina oggi
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SìNo
October 3116%SìNo
$5,8 Mln Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
10%
probabilità
Sì No
$105.748 Volume 30/06
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
16%
probabilità
Sì No
$23.499 Volume 31/12
Che prezzo raggiungerà gas entro fine agosto?Che prezzo raggiungerà gas entro fine agosto?
↑ $4.2562%SìNo
↓ $3.9048%SìNo
$3.299 Volume 31/08
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
December 31December 3156%SìNo
September 30September 3014%SìNo
$2,9 Mln Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%SìNo
September 3088%SìNo
$235.827 Volume 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?
Stati UnitiStati Uniti24%SìNo
UKUK6%SìNo
$15.371 Volume 31/08
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FAQ sui mercati geopolitici

Cosa coprono i mercati geopolitici?
Guerre e scontri militari, cessate il fuoco e negoziati di pace, sanzioni, accordi internazionali, elezioni con poste globali e più ampi cambi di potere tra grandi paesi, ciascuno come mercato sì/no o a esiti multipli con una probabilità live.
Come funzionano le quote?
Ogni esito viene scambiato tra 1¢ e 99¢; il prezzo è la probabilità implicita del mercato. I prezzi si muovono in tempo reale mentre i trader reagiscono alle notizie, quindi riflettono il consenso attuale più che una previsione fissa.
Posso seguirli o testarli senza rischi?
Sì. La modalità allenamento gratuita di Polymarkets ti permette di fare trading simulato su qualsiasi mercato con prezzi live e 1.000 $ di denaro di pratica, nessuna carta e nessun rischio, prima di passare a Polymarket.
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