地缘政治 市场

96 个活跃市场
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Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%是否
July 2999%是否
$1,193.3万 成交量 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
概率
是 否
$46.4万 成交量 31/12
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%是否
No Head of State7%是否
$3,736.1万 成交量 31/12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%是否
September 308%是否
$6,863.3万 成交量 今日截止
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3159%是否
August 1447%是否
$842.7万 成交量 31/08
7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
1%
概率
是 否
$79.1万 成交量 今日截止
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202690%是否
December 3150%是否
$247.4万 成交量 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$79.1万 成交量 31/08
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3173%
$22.2万 成交量 今日截止
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
15%
概率
是 否
$28.1万 成交量 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%是否
September 3011%是否
$1,194.8万 成交量 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3118%是否
September 3014%是否
$888.3万 成交量 今日截止
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%是否
October 3181%是否
$201.5万 成交量 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%是否
December 31, 20269%是否
$13.4万 成交量 30/06
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3124%是否
August 1512%是否
$2,550.1万 成交量 今日截止
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3127%是否
October 3117%是否
$345.9万 成交量 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%是否
Benjamin Netanyahu35%是否
$3,044.5万 成交量 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%是否
December 3121%是否
$2,139.1万 成交量 31/12
9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
18%
概率
是 否
$79.1万 成交量 30/09
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3166%是否
July 3112%是否
$285.1万 成交量 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3143%是否
August 1521%是否
$5.1万 成交量 今日截止
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 156%是否
July 311%是否
$859.3万 成交量 今日截止
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
概率
是 否
$116.4万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%是否
February 28February 281%是否
$111.7万 成交量 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
概率
是 否
$28.1万 成交量 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%是否
Delcy Rodríguez10%是否
$9,479.4万 成交量 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 319%是否
September 305%是否
$823.5万 成交量 今日截止
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 309%
$25.4万 成交量 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%是否
July 1299%是否
$267.1万 成交量 今日截止
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$66.9万 成交量 31/08
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3160%是否
September 3046%是否
$3.8万 成交量 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%是否
September 305%是否
$2,898.2万 成交量 31/12
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗？
9%
概率
是 否
$4.6万 成交量 31/12
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3124%是否
August 319%是否
$171.4万 成交量 今日截止
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%是否
100+1%是否
$3.1万 成交量 今日截止
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%是否
瑞士瑞士3%是否
$3万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%是否
September 30September 305%是否
$2.7万 成交量 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%是否
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%是否
$2,303.4万 成交量 10/10
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8843%是否
9933%是否
$159.8万 成交量 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%是否
Druzkhivka51%是否
$2.3万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202693%是否
September 30, 202689%是否
$857.1万 成交量 今日截止
12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？ 12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常？
52%
概率
是 否
$79.1万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3155%是否
September 30September 3019%是否
$104.7万 成交量 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$2.7万 成交量 30/06
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$1.7万 成交量 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
概率
是 否
$12.1万 成交量 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%是否
October 3115%是否
$24.4万 成交量 31/12
WTI原油在___前创历史新高？WTI原油在___前创历史新高？
December 3114%是否
September 305%是否
$218.7万 成交量 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
概率
是 否
$1.4万 成交量 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
91%
概率
是 否
$58.5万 成交量 31/12
7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？7月27日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡？
50-7455%是否
75-9922%是否
$1.5万 成交量 还剩 3 天
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%是否
瑞士25%是否
$1.3万 成交量 30/09
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3121%是否
July 311%是否
$20万 成交量 31/08
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
概率
是 否
$2.2万 成交量 今日截止
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%是否
October 316%是否
$1,760.9万 成交量 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%是否
July 312%是否
$48.5万 成交量 今日截止
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3126%是否
August 317%是否
$96.2万 成交量
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$22.9万 成交量 31/08
伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？ 伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗？
3%
概率
是 否
$4.6万 成交量 30/09
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
概率
是 否
$9,434 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3163%是否
August 1532%是否
$9,025 成交量 31/08
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%是否
July 311%是否
$130.9万 成交量 今日截止
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff91%是否
Jared KushnerJared Kushner86%是否
$2.7万 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3122%是否
October 3111%是否
$93.5万 成交量 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
11%
概率
是 否
$321.6万 成交量 31/12
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
2%
概率
是 否
$7.2万 成交量 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
概率
是 否
$28.1万 成交量 30/09
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%是否
April 301%是否
$1,217.4万 成交量 今日截止
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
概率
是 否
$12.2万 成交量 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 311%
August 315%
$8.4万 成交量 31/08
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
51%
概率
是 否
$84.4万 成交量 20/08
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
概率
是 否
$8.2万 成交量 30/09
伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？ 伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩？
1%
概率
是 否
$8,808 成交量 今日截止
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%是否
October 3154%是否
$141.1万 成交量 31/08
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
10%
概率
是 否
$28.1万 成交量 30/06
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$349.6万 成交量 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
澳大利亚2%是否
美国1%是否
$5,821 成交量 今日截止
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3125%是否
September 3010%是否
$33.5万 成交量 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%是否
October 3117%是否
$576.1万 成交量 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake98%是否
6–10s1%是否
$5,610 成交量 今日截止
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3024%
December 3155%
$6.3万 成交量 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%是否
September 3010%是否
$611.6万 成交量 今日截止
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%是否
September 3038%是否
$23.3万 成交量 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%是否
June 301%是否
$2,170.5万 成交量 今日截止
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%是否
January 31January 311%是否
$709万 成交量 31/12
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?Will Russia enter Dobropillia by...?
December 31December 3179%是否
October 31October 3158%是否
$23.8万 成交量 今日截止
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi44%是否
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan27%是否
$15.7万 成交量 31/12
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3111%
June 301%
$4,076 成交量 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%是否
December 31, 20263%是否
$139.8万 成交量 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)31%是否
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding30%是否
$41万 成交量 31/12
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
20%
概率
是 否
$4,147 成交量 31/12
8月底前gas将达到什么价格？8月底前gas将达到什么价格？
↑ $4.2565%是否
↓ $3.9063%是否
$3,701 成交量 31/08
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$4,855 成交量 今日截止
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3138%
$8.1万 成交量 31/12
Who will Trump speak to in July?Who will Trump speak to in July?
Emmanuel MacronEmmanuel Macron58%是否
Lula da SilvaLula da Silva41%是否
$2,787 成交量 今日截止
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?
19%
概率
是 否
$12.6万 成交量 31/12
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