Geopolitieke voorspellingsmarkten

Geopolitieke voorspellingsmarkten prijzen de grootste machtsstrijd ter wereld: oorlogen, militaire botsingen, sancties, vredesbesprekingen en internationale deals, als live kansen die met elke kop meebewegen.

Op Polymarket dragen deze markten vaak diepe liquiditeit rond snel bewegende nieuwsgebeurtenissen en lopen ze weken of maanden. Polymarkets volgt de echte koersen en kansen van actieve conflicten en machtsverschuivingen wereldwijd, zodat je de visie van de menigte realtime kunt lezen, scenario's kunt vergelijken en risicovrij kunt oefenen in de trainingsmodus voordat je op Polymarket handelt.

104 actieve markten
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,7 mln. Volume 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3156%JaNee
August 1447%JaNee
$8,2 mln. Volume 31/08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2799%JaNee
July 2899%JaNee
$11,6 mln. Volume 31/08
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 3183%
$710,6K Volume Eindigt vandaag
Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 31 juli terug naar normaal? Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 31 juli terug naar normaal?
1%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,2 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$1,2 mln. Volume 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%JaNee
No Head of State7%JaNee
$37,3 mln. Volume 31/12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%JaNee
September 308%JaNee
$68,4 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
kans
Ja Nee
$280K Volume 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%JaNee
September 3011%JaNee
$11,9 mln. Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3186%JaNee
October 3180%JaNee
$2 mln. Volume 31/08
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3126%JaNee
October 3117%JaNee
$3,4 mln. Volume 31/12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3122%JaNee
September 3016%JaNee
$8,8 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202730%JaNee
December 3122%JaNee
$21,3 mln. Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%JaNee
September 305%JaNee
$29 mln. Volume 31/12
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 3135%JaNee
July 272%JaNee
$2,6 mln. Volume Nog 2 dagen
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3129%JaNee
August 1517%JaNee
$25,4 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%JaNee
Benjamin Netanyahu35%JaNee
$30,4 mln. Volume 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%JaNee
August 1519%JaNee
$88,2K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202716%JaNee
December 31, 20269%JaNee
$83,6K Volume 30/06
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+2%JaNee
50+1%JaNee
$78,2K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 316%
September 309%
$223,9K Volume 30/09
Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 30 september terug naar normaal? Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 30 september terug naar normaal?
19%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,2 mln. Volume 30/09
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31December 3113%JaNee
September 30September 305%JaNee
$67,1K Volume 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,2 mln. Volume 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 156%JaNee
July 311%JaNee
$8,6 mln. Volume Nog 2 dagen
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 3129%JaNee
September 309%JaNee
$334,8K Volume 31/12
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 316%JaNee
March 311%JaNee
$57,8K Volume 31/12
Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 31 december terug naar normaal? Keert het verkeer in de Straat van Hormuz vóór 31 december terug naar normaal?
52%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,2 mln. Volume 31/12
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
91%
kans
Ja Nee
$46,2K Volume 31/12
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 3097%
December 3199%
$96,7K Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3037%JaNee
Zwitserland25%JaNee
$36,9K Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
kans
Ja Nee
$280K Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202692%JaNee
September 30, 202688%JaNee
$8,6 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
kans
Ja Nee
$191,2K Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%JaNee
Delcy Rodríguez10%JaNee
$94,8 mln. Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%JaNee
February 28February 281%JaNee
$1,1 mln. Volume 30/09
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%JaNee
October 3116%JaNee
$5,8 mln. Volume 31/12
Valt het Iraanse regime vóór 2027? Valt het Iraanse regime vóór 2027?
9%
kans
Ja Nee
$34,6K Volume 31/12
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner86%JaNee
Steve WitkoffSteve Witkoff78%JaNee
$23,6K Volume 31/12
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$633,1K Volume 31/08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%JaNee
October 316%JaNee
$17,6 mln. Volume 31/12
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 3150%JaNee
November 3050%JaNee
$2,1 mln. Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%JaNee
April 301%JaNee
$12,2 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3153%JaNee
September 30September 3019%JaNee
$1 mln. Volume 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%JaNee
Druzkhivka38%JaNee
$18,7K Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%JaNee
July 312%JaNee
$1,3 mln. Volume Nog 2 dagen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
8%
kans
Ja Nee
$16,7K Volume 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$223,6K Volume 31/08
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya11%JaNee
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%JaNee
$23 mln. Volume 10/10
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3123%JaNee
September 3012%JaNee
$6,1 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
kans
Ja Nee
$15,1K Volume 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake95%JaNee
6–10s4%JaNee
$15,1K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3124%JaNee
July 313%JaNee
$199,1K Volume 31/08
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
9%
kans
Ja Nee
$364,4K Volume 31/12
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3127%JaNee
January 31January 311%JaNee
$7,1 mln. Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$19,4K Volume Nog 2 dagen
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8840%JaNee
9940%JaNee
$1,6 mln. Volume 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
8%
kans
Ja Nee
$11,2K Volume 31/12
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another tanker in Caspian Sea by...?
July 318%
August 3118%
$33,9K Volume 31/08
Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?Ukraine strikes another vessel in Black Sea by...?
July 3190%
August 3195%
$12K Volume 31/08
Stemt Iran vóór 31 december in met het stoppen van uraniumverrijking? Stemt Iran vóór 31 december in met het stoppen van uraniumverrijking?
26%
kans
Ja Nee
$15,9K Volume 31/12
Valt het Iraanse regime vóór 30 september? Valt het Iraanse regime vóór 30 september?
3%
kans
Ja Nee
$34,6K Volume 30/09
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
52%
kans
Ja Nee
$839,4K Volume 20/08
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2755%JaNee
July 3146%JaNee
$17,3K Volume Eindigt vandaag
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 1742%JaNee
August 2342%JaNee
$17,3K Volume 31/08
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Verenigde Staten1%JaNee
Italy1%JaNee
$8,5K Volume Nog 2 dagen
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3111%JaNee
July 312%JaNee
$476,8K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Hoeveel schepen passeren de Straat van Hormuz in de week van 27 juli?Hoeveel schepen passeren de Straat van Hormuz in de week van 27 juli?
50-7449%JaNee
75-9922%JaNee
$9,1K Volume Nog 4 dagen
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%JaNee
October 3113%JaNee
$235,4K Volume 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)31%JaNee
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)30%JaNee
$409,2K Volume 31/12
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by...?
December 3112%
June 301%
$8,2K Volume 31/12
All-time high van WTI-ruwe olie vóór ___?All-time high van WTI-ruwe olie vóór ___?
December 3115%JaNee
September 306%JaNee
$2,2 mln. Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
10%
kans
Ja Nee
$3,2 mln. Volume 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3144%JaNee
September 3038%JaNee
$7,7K Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
kans
Ja Nee
$7,7K Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202649%JaNee
December13%JaNee
$159,9K Volume 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%JaNee
December 31, 20263%JaNee
$1,4 mln. Volume 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%JaNee
October 3158%JaNee
$1,4 mln. Volume 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%JaNee
September 305%JaNee
$8,2 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
kans
Ja Nee
$10,5 mln. Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
69%
kans
Ja Nee
$19,4K Volume 31/12
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
December 3125%JaNee
June 301%JaNee
$2,1 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3163%JaNee
August 1530%JaNee
$6,5K Volume 31/08
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%JaNee
July 311%JaNee
$10 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3122%JaNee
October 3111%JaNee
$931,7K Volume 31/12
Maduro Prison Time?Maduro Prison Time?
60+44%JaNee
No prison time34%JaNee
$657,6K Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%JaNee
June 301%JaNee
$21,7 mln. Volume Eindigt vandaag
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
15%
kans
Ja Nee
$1,6 mln. Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%JaNee
September 3088%JaNee
$233,3K Volume 31/12
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
99%
kans
Ja Nee
$13,2K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3140%JaNee
July 313%JaNee
$2,8 mln. Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
10%
kans
Ja Nee
$280K Volume 30/06
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by...?
December 31December 3142%JaNee
September 30September 305%JaNee
$4,7K Volume Eindigt vandaag
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 312%JaNee
July 141%JaNee
$134,6K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi47%JaNee
Macky SallMacky Sall28%JaNee
$154,7K Volume 31/12
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202790%JaNee
ZwitserlandZwitserland3%JaNee
$4K Volume 31/12
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027? Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
14%
kans
Ja Nee
$20,4K Volume 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3131%JaNee
August 318%JaNee
$952,6K Volume
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3110%JaNee
August 312%JaNee
$876,3K Volume 31/12
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31? Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by July 31?
1%
kans
Ja Nee
$28,6K Volume Nog 2 dagen
Stemt Iran vóór 31 juli in met het stoppen van uraniumverrijking? Stemt Iran vóór 31 juli in met het stoppen van uraniumverrijking?
1%
kans
Ja Nee
$15,9K Volume Eindigt vandaag
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 312%
August 3130%
$100,3K Volume 31/08
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2099%JaNee
40-601%JaNee
$3,3K Volume Nog 2 dagen
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FAQ over geopolitieke markten

Wat dekken geopolitieke markten?
Oorlogen en militaire botsingen, staakt-het-vurens en vredesbesprekingen, sancties, internationale deals, verkiezingen met mondiale inzet en bredere machtsverschuivingen tussen grote landen, elk als ja/nee- of meerdere-uitkomstenmarkt met een live kans.
Hoe werken de kansen?
Elke uitkomst wordt verhandeld tussen 1¢ en 99¢; de koers is de impliciete kans van de markt. Koersen bewegen realtime terwijl traders op nieuws reageren, dus ze weerspiegelen de huidige consensus in plaats van een vaste voorspelling.
Kan ik ze volgen of testen zonder risico?
Ja. De gratis trainingsmodus van Polymarkets laat je elke markt papertraden met live koersen en 1.000 $ oefengeld, geen kaart en geen risico, voordat je naar Polymarket gaat.
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