Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte

Geopolitik-Prognosemärkte bepreisen die größten Machtkämpfe der Welt - Kriege, militärische Zusammenstöße, Waffenruhen, Friedensverhandlungen und internationale Abkommen - als lebendige Wahrscheinlichkeiten, die sich mit jeder Schlagzeile ändern. Polymarkets verfolgt die echten Preise aktiver Konflikte und Machtverschiebungen weltweit und lässt dich im Trainingsmodus risikofrei üben, bevor du auf Polymarket handelst.

96 aktive Märkte
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U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$707,8 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%JaNein
August 1437%JaNein
$8,9 Mio. Vol 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%JaNein
December 3150%JaNein
$2,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%JaNein
July 2999%JaNein
$12,2 Mio. Vol 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%JaNein
September 307%JaNein
$68,9 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%JaNein
December 3122%JaNein
$21,7 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
Chance
Ja Nein
$279,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%JaNein
August 1513%JaNein
$25,6 Mio. Vol Endet heute
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%JaNein
October 3118%JaNein
$3,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%JaNein
September 309%JaNein
$12,1 Mio. Vol 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%JaNein
September 3012%JaNein
$8,9 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$530,3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%JaNein
October 3180%JaNein
$2,1 Mio. Vol 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%JaNein
December 31, 20269%JaNein
$98,5 Tsd. Vol 30/06
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 30 September?
17%
Chance
Ja Nein
$530,3 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%JaNein
August 1518%JaNein
$86,4 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%JaNein
July 316%JaNein
$2,9 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%JaNein
September 30, 202687%JaNein
$8,6 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%JaNein
80+1%JaNein
$59,3 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027? Fällt das iranische Regime vor 2027?
9%
Chance
Ja Nein
$82,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%JaNein
September 305%JaNein
$8,2 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?Netanyahu bis... aus dem Amt?
December 3141%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$50,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$8,6 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$681,6 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%JaNein
SchweizSchweiz3%JaNein
$47,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%JaNein
Benjamin Netanyahu35%JaNein
$30,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%JaNein
Delcy Rodríguez10%JaNein
$94,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
Chance
Ja Nein
$107,2 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%JaNein
August 3111%JaNein
$1,7 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
Chance
Ja Nein
$107,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3153%JaNein
September 3025%JaNein
$37,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%JaNein
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%JaNein
$23 Mio. Vol 10/10
Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September? Fällt das iranische Regime bis 30 September?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$82,9 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
Chance
Ja Nein
$107,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%JaNein
February 28February 281%JaNein
$1,1 Mio. Vol 30/09
Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember? Normalisiert sich der Verkehr in die Straße von Hormus bis 31 Dezember?
51%
Chance
Ja Nein
$530,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$269,3 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%JaNein
July 1299%JaNein
$2,7 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3157%JaNein
September 30September 3019%JaNein
$1,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
Chance
Ja Nein
$39,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$27,1 Tsd. Vol 30/06
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%JaNein
August 1530%JaNein
$17,1 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?Allzeithoch von WTI-Rohöl bis ___?
December 3115%JaNein
September 305%JaNein
$2,2 Mio. Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%JaNein
Druzkhivka44%JaNein
$14,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
Chance
Ja Nein
$586,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Australien2%JaNein
Vereinigte Staaten1%JaNein
$14,1 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%JaNein
Schweiz25%JaNein
$13,3 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
Chance
Ja Nein
$26,2 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$235,4 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%JaNein
No Head of State7%JaNein
$37,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%JaNein
September 305%JaNein
$29 Mio. Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%JaNein
2–6s3%JaNein
$11,1 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
Chance
Ja Nein
$851,2 Tsd. Vol 20/08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
Chance
Ja Nein
$10,6 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%JaNein
August 316%JaNein
$962,5 Tsd. Vol
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$1,3 Mio. Vol Endet heute
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%JaNein
January 31January 311%JaNein
$7,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%JaNein
October 3116%JaNein
$244,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,2 Mio. Vol 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%JaNein
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%JaNein
$8,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84,3 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%JaNein
October 3154%JaNein
$1,4 Mio. Vol 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$122,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
Chance
Ja Nein
$82,1 Tsd. Vol 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3173%JaNein
ChinaChina15%JaNein
$7,3 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%JaNein
September 309%JaNein
$6,1 Mio. Vol Endet heute
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%JaNein
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham83%JaNein
$30,7 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus in der Woche vom 27 Juli?Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Straße von Hormus in der Woche vom 27 Juli?
50-7455%JaNein
75-9923%JaNein
$16 Tsd. Vol 3 Tage verbleibend
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3160%
$64,9 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%JaNein
April 301%JaNein
$12,2 Mio. Vol Endet heute
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%JaNein
July 311%JaNein
$488,5 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%JaNein
June 301%JaNein
$21,7 Mio. Vol Endet heute
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%JaNein
August 312%JaNein
$882,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$6,1 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%JaNein
August 642%JaNein
$7 Tsd. Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$105,7 Tsd. Vol 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
Chance
Ja Nein
$5,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8846%JaNein
9933%JaNein
$1,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%JaNein
October 3116%JaNein
$5,8 Mio. Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%JaNein
October 316%JaNein
$17,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%JaNein
September 3038%JaNein
$233,5 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan42%JaNein
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi41%JaNein
$159,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2,1 Mio. Vol 31/12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
Chance
Ja Nein
$4,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$4,2 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%JaNein
December 31, 20263%JaNein
$1,4 Mio. Vol 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3120%JaNein
September 3012%JaNein
$630,1 Tsd. Vol Endet heute
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
Chance
Ja Nein
$10,5 Mio. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3121%
October 3138%
$12,9 Tsd. Vol 31/10
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%JaNein
September 304%JaNein
$525 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%JaNein
December13%JaNein
$163,4 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3137%
$81,1 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu? Stimmt Iran bis 31 Dezember dem Stopp der Urananreicherung zu?
25%
Chance
Ja Nein
$18,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
Chance
Ja Nein
$1,6 Mio. Vol 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
Chance
Ja Nein
$10,8 Tsd. Vol 31/12
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