This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Past
Zohran Mamdani
$87 Volume
50%
Keir Starmer
$221 Volume
59%
Jerome Powell
$81 Volume
52%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1.9K Volume
23%
Freidrich Merz
$120 Volume
47%
Vladimir Putin
$739 Volume
16%
Emmanuel Macron
44%
Jimmy Kimmel
43%
Tucker Carlson
33%
Megyn Kelly
37%
Elon Musk
$3 Volume
36%
Candace Owens
38%
Alex Jones
37%
J.D. Vance
$194 Volume
5%
Kevin Warsh
$1.1K Volume
6%
Viktor Orbán
$23 Volume
6%
Pope Leo XIV
$47 Volume
32%
Norah O'Donnell
36%
Kaitlan Collins
37%
Pam Bondi
$90 Volume
20%
Melania Trump
$136 Volume
4%
Xi Jinping
$3.9K Volume
2%
Mohammed bin Salman
$440 Volume
2%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
37%
Resolved 3
Joe Biden
$22.1K Volume
Yes
Barack Obama
$29.2K Volume
Yes
Nicolás Maduro
$3.4K Volume
Yes
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
The field is wide open: Zohran Mamdani tops it at just 41%, with Keir Starmer close behind at 40%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
No strong consensus yet: Zohran Mamdani tops the implied probabilities at just 41%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Jul 2026 (22 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Total turnover stands at $99. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31 on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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