Marchés de Prédiction Géopolitique

Les marchés de prédiction géopolitique cotent les plus grands rapports de force du monde - guerres, affrontements militaires, cessez-le-feu, négociations de paix et accords internationaux - en probabilités vivantes qui évoluent à chaque actualité. Polymarkets suit les prix réels des conflits et rapports de force actifs dans le monde, et vous permet de vous entraîner sans risque en mode entraînement avant de trader sur Polymarket.

96 marchés actifs
Trier
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$707,8 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%OuiNon
August 1437%OuiNon
$8,9 M Vol 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%OuiNon
December 3150%OuiNon
$2,8 M Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%OuiNon
July 2999%OuiNon
$12,2 M Vol 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%OuiNon
September 307%OuiNon
$68,9 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%OuiNon
December 3122%OuiNon
$21,7 M Vol 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
de chance
Oui Non
$279,6 k Vol 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%OuiNon
August 1513%OuiNon
$25,6 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%OuiNon
October 3118%OuiNon
$3,6 M Vol 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%OuiNon
September 309%OuiNon
$12,1 M Vol 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%OuiNon
September 3012%OuiNon
$8,9 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$530,3 k Vol 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%OuiNon
October 3180%OuiNon
$2,1 M Vol 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%OuiNon
December 31, 20269%OuiNon
$98,5 k Vol 30/06
Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 30 septembre ? Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 30 septembre ?
17%
de chance
Oui Non
$530,3 k Vol 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%OuiNon
August 1518%OuiNon
$86,4 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%OuiNon
July 316%OuiNon
$2,9 M Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%OuiNon
September 30, 202687%OuiNon
$8,6 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%OuiNon
80+1%OuiNon
$59,3 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il avant 2027 ?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$82,9 k Vol 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$8,2 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3141%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$50,9 k Vol 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$8,6 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$681,6 k Vol 31/08
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%OuiNon
SuisseSuisse3%OuiNon
$47,4 k Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%OuiNon
Benjamin Netanyahu35%OuiNon
$30,5 M Vol 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%OuiNon
Delcy Rodríguez10%OuiNon
$94,8 M Vol 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
de chance
Oui Non
$107,2 k Vol 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%OuiNon
August 3111%OuiNon
$1,7 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
de chance
Oui Non
$107,2 k Vol 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3153%OuiNon
September 3025%OuiNon
$37,7 k Vol 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%OuiNon
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%OuiNon
$23 M Vol 10/10
Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ? Le régime iranien tombera-t-il d'ici le 30 septembre ?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$82,9 k Vol 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$107,2 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%OuiNon
February 28February 281%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 30/09
Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 décembre ? Le trafic dans le détroit d'Ormuz reviendra-t-il à la normale d'ici le 31 décembre ?
51%
de chance
Oui Non
$530,3 k Vol 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$269,3 k Vol 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%OuiNon
July 1299%OuiNon
$2,7 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3157%OuiNon
September 30September 3019%OuiNon
$1,1 M Vol 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
de chance
Oui Non
$39,1 k Vol 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$27,1 k Vol 30/06
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%OuiNon
August 1530%OuiNon
$17,1 k Vol 31/08
Record historique de pétrole WTI d'ici ___ ?Record historique de pétrole WTI d'ici ___ ?
December 3115%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$2,2 M Vol 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%OuiNon
Druzkhivka44%OuiNon
$14,9 k Vol 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
de chance
Oui Non
$586,5 k Vol 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Australie2%OuiNon
États-Unis1%OuiNon
$14,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%OuiNon
Suisse25%OuiNon
$13,3 k Vol 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
de chance
Oui Non
$26,2 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$235,4 k Vol 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%OuiNon
No Head of State7%OuiNon
$37,4 M Vol 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%OuiNon
September 305%OuiNon
$29 M Vol 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%OuiNon
2–6s3%OuiNon
$11,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
de chance
Oui Non
$851,2 k Vol 20/08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,6 k Vol 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%OuiNon
August 316%OuiNon
$962,5 k Vol
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$1,3 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%OuiNon
January 31January 311%OuiNon
$7,1 M Vol 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%OuiNon
October 3116%OuiNon
$244,3 k Vol 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,2 M Vol 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%OuiNon
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%OuiNon
$8,3 k Vol 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84,3 k Vol 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%OuiNon
October 3154%OuiNon
$1,4 M Vol 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$122,1 k Vol 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
de chance
Oui Non
$82,1 k Vol 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3173%OuiNon
ChinaChina15%OuiNon
$7,3 k Vol 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%OuiNon
September 309%OuiNon
$6,1 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%OuiNon
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham83%OuiNon
$30,7 k Vol 31/12
Combien de navires traverseront le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 27 juillet ?Combien de navires traverseront le détroit d'Ormuz la semaine du 27 juillet ?
50-7455%OuiNon
75-9923%OuiNon
$16 k Vol 3 jours restants
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3160%
$64,9 k Vol 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%OuiNon
April 301%OuiNon
$12,2 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$488,5 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%OuiNon
June 301%OuiNon
$21,7 M Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%OuiNon
August 312%OuiNon
$882,1 k Vol 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$6,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%OuiNon
August 642%OuiNon
$7 k Vol 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$105,7 k Vol 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
de chance
Oui Non
$5,2 k Vol 31/12
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8846%OuiNon
9933%OuiNon
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%OuiNon
October 3116%OuiNon
$5,8 M Vol 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%OuiNon
October 316%OuiNon
$17,6 M Vol 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 M Vol 31/12
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%OuiNon
September 3038%OuiNon
$233,5 k Vol 31/12
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan42%OuiNon
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi41%OuiNon
$159,4 k Vol 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2,1 M Vol 31/12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
de chance
Oui Non
$4,2 k Vol 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$4,2 k Vol 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%OuiNon
December 31, 20263%OuiNon
$1,4 M Vol 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3120%OuiNon
September 3012%OuiNon
$630,1 k Vol Se termine aujourd'hui
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,5 M Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3121%
October 3138%
$12,9 k Vol 31/10
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%OuiNon
September 304%OuiNon
$525 k Vol 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%OuiNon
December13%OuiNon
$163,4 k Vol 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3137%
$81,1 k Vol 31/12
L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ? L'Iran acceptera-t-il d'arrêter l'enrichissement d'uranium d'ici le 31 décembre ?
25%
de chance
Oui Non
$18,8 k Vol 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
de chance
Oui Non
$1,6 M Vol 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
de chance
Oui Non
$10,8 k Vol 31/12
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