Mercados de Previsão de Geopolítica

Os mercados de previsão de geopolítica atribuem preço às maiores disputas de poder do mundo - guerras, confrontos militares, cessar-fogo, negociações de paz e acordos internacionais - como probabilidades vivas que mudam a cada notícia. A Polymarkets acompanha os preços reais dos conflitos e mudanças de poder ativos em todo o mundo, e deixa-o praticar sem risco no modo de treino antes de negociar na Polymarket.

96 mercados ativos
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U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$707,8 mil Volume Encerra hoje
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%SimNão
August 1437%SimNão
$8,9 mi Volume 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%SimNão
December 3150%SimNão
$2,8 mi Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%SimNão
July 2999%SimNão
$12,2 mi Volume 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%SimNão
September 307%SimNão
$68,9 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%SimNão
December 3122%SimNão
$21,7 mi Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
chance
Sim Não
$279,6 mil Volume 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%SimNão
August 1513%SimNão
$25,6 mi Volume Encerra hoje
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%SimNão
October 3118%SimNão
$3,6 mi Volume 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%SimNão
September 309%SimNão
$12,1 mi Volume 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%SimNão
September 3012%SimNão
$8,9 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$530,3 mil Volume 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%SimNão
October 3180%SimNão
$2,1 mi Volume 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%SimNão
December 31, 20269%SimNão
$98,5 mil Volume 30/06
O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 30 de setembro? O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 30 de setembro?
17%
chance
Sim Não
$530,3 mil Volume 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%SimNão
August 1518%SimNão
$86,4 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%SimNão
July 316%SimNão
$2,9 mi Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%SimNão
September 30, 202687%SimNão
$8,6 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%SimNão
80+1%SimNão
$59,3 mil Volume Encerra hoje
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027? O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
9%
chance
Sim Não
$82,9 mil Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%SimNão
September 305%SimNão
$8,2 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?
December 3141%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$50,9 mil Volume 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$8,6 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$681,6 mil Volume 31/08
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%SimNão
SuíçaSuíça3%SimNão
$47,4 mil Volume 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SimNão
Benjamin Netanyahu35%SimNão
$30,5 mi Volume 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%SimNão
Delcy Rodríguez10%SimNão
$94,8 mi Volume 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Sim Não
$107,2 mil Volume 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%SimNão
August 3111%SimNão
$1,7 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
chance
Sim Não
$107,2 mil Volume 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3153%SimNão
September 3025%SimNão
$37,7 mil Volume 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%SimNão
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%SimNão
$23 mi Volume 10/10
O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de setembro? O regime iraniano cairá até 30 de setembro?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$82,9 mil Volume 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
chance
Sim Não
$107,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%SimNão
February 28February 281%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 30/09
O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de dezembro? O tráfego no o estreito de Ormuz voltará ao normal até 31 de dezembro?
51%
chance
Sim Não
$530,3 mil Volume 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$269,3 mil Volume 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%SimNão
July 1299%SimNão
$2,7 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3157%SimNão
September 30September 3019%SimNão
$1,1 mi Volume 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
chance
Sim Não
$39,1 mil Volume 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$27,1 mil Volume 30/06
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%SimNão
August 1530%SimNão
$17,1 mil Volume 31/08
Máxima histórica de petróleo WTI até ___?Máxima histórica de petróleo WTI até ___?
December 3115%SimNão
September 305%SimNão
$2,2 mi Volume 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%SimNão
Druzkhivka44%SimNão
$14,9 mil Volume 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
chance
Sim Não
$586,5 mil Volume 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
Austrália2%SimNão
Estados Unidos1%SimNão
$14,1 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%SimNão
Suíça25%SimNão
$13,3 mil Volume 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
chance
Sim Não
$26,2 mil Volume Encerra hoje
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$235,4 mil Volume 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%SimNão
No Head of State7%SimNão
$37,4 mi Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%SimNão
September 305%SimNão
$29 mi Volume 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%SimNão
2–6s3%SimNão
$11,1 mil Volume Encerra hoje
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
chance
Sim Não
$851,2 mil Volume 20/08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
chance
Sim Não
$10,6 mil Volume 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%SimNão
August 316%SimNão
$962,5 mil Volume
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$1,3 mi Volume Encerra hoje
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%SimNão
January 31January 311%SimNão
$7,1 mi Volume 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%SimNão
October 3116%SimNão
$244,3 mil Volume 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
chance
Sim Não
$1,2 mi Volume 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%SimNão
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%SimNão
$8,3 mil Volume 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$84,3 mil Volume 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%SimNão
October 3154%SimNão
$1,4 mi Volume 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$122,1 mil Volume 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
chance
Sim Não
$82,1 mil Volume 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3173%SimNão
ChinaChina15%SimNão
$7,3 mil Volume 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%SimNão
September 309%SimNão
$6,1 mi Volume Encerra hoje
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%SimNão
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham83%SimNão
$30,7 mil Volume 31/12
Quantos navios cruzarão o o estreito de Ormuz na semana de 27 de julho?Quantos navios cruzarão o o estreito de Ormuz na semana de 27 de julho?
50-7455%SimNão
75-9923%SimNão
$16 mil Volume 3 dias restantes
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3160%
$64,9 mil Volume 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%SimNão
April 301%SimNão
$12,2 mi Volume Encerra hoje
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$488,5 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%SimNão
June 301%SimNão
$21,7 mi Volume Encerra hoje
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%SimNão
August 312%SimNão
$882,1 mil Volume 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$6,1 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%SimNão
August 642%SimNão
$7 mil Volume 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$105,7 mil Volume 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
chance
Sim Não
$5,2 mil Volume 31/12
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8846%SimNão
9933%SimNão
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%SimNão
October 3116%SimNão
$5,8 mi Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%SimNão
October 316%SimNão
$17,6 mi Volume 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$3,5 mi Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%SimNão
September 3038%SimNão
$233,5 mil Volume 31/12
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan42%SimNão
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi41%SimNão
$159,4 mil Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$2,1 mi Volume 31/12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
chance
Sim Não
$4,2 mil Volume 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$4,2 mil Volume 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%SimNão
December 31, 20263%SimNão
$1,4 mi Volume 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3120%SimNão
September 3012%SimNão
$630,1 mil Volume Encerra hoje
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
chance
Sim Não
$10,5 mi Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3121%
October 3138%
$12,9 mil Volume 31/10
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%SimNão
September 304%SimNão
$525 mil Volume 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%SimNão
December13%SimNão
$163,4 mil Volume 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3137%
$81,1 mil Volume 31/12
O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro? O Irã concordará em encerrar o enriquecimento de urânio até 31 de dezembro?
25%
chance
Sim Não
$18,8 mil Volume 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
chance
Sim Não
$1,6 mi Volume 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
chance
Sim Não
$10,8 mil Volume 31/12
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