Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.

A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so.

Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The Ukraine peace referendum prediction market currently shows a low probability of 0.1% for a referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war being officially scheduled by January 31, 2026. With a trading volume of $373K, this market reflects investor skepticism regarding the likelihood of diplomatic resolutions in the ongoing conflict. Understanding these probabilities is crucial for stakeholders, as they indicate market sentiment and potential future developments in Ukraine's political landscape.