This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.
3) NATO otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
NATO member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or provide an official notice of denunciation to NATO, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO and NATO member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for NATO dissolves before 2027?
Yes is the outsider here at 1%, while No trades at 99%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for NATO dissolves before 2027?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 1% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the NATO dissolves before 2027 market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Dec 2026 (175 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on NATO dissolves before 2027?
Traders have put $112.4K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade NATO dissolves before 2027 on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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