This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
July 31
$5.1K Volume
2%
August 31
$62.7K Volume
7%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by?
The field is wide open: August 31 tops it at just 6%, with July 31 close behind at 1%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Right now the market's best guess is August 31 at 6% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by market resolve?
Mark 31 Aug 2026 (36 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Total turnover stands at $67.9K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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