地政学マーケット

96件のアクティブなマーケット
並び替え
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
June 302%
July 311%
$70.8万 取引高 本日終了
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%はいいいえ
August 1437%はいいいえ
$885.2万 取引高 31/08
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
December 31, 202661%はいいいえ
December 3150%はいいいえ
$277.1万 取引高 31/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%はいいいえ
July 2999%はいいいえ
$1,222.4万 取引高 31/08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3113%はいいいえ
September 307%はいいいえ
$6,885.9万 取引高 本日終了
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202731%はいいいえ
December 3122%はいいいえ
$2,170.2万 取引高 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
24%
確率
はい いいえ
$28万 取引高 31/12
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3125%はいいいえ
August 1513%はいいいえ
$2,561.3万 取引高 本日終了
NATO x Russia military clash by...?NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 3128%はいいいえ
October 3118%はいいいえ
$358.5万 取引高 31/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3129%はいいいえ
September 309%はいいいえ
$1,206.5万 取引高 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3119%はいいいえ
September 3012%はいいいえ
$892.6万 取引高 本日終了
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 317%
August 151%
$53万 取引高 31/08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 3187%はいいいえ
October 3180%はいいいえ
$207.8万 取引高 31/08
Putin out as President of Russia by...?Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 202715%はいいいえ
December 31, 20269%はいいいえ
$9.9万 取引高 30/06
9月30日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？ 9月30日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？
17%
確率
はい いいえ
$53万 取引高 30/09
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3135%はいいいえ
August 1518%はいいいえ
$8.6万 取引高 本日終了
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?
December 3155%はいいいえ
July 316%はいいいえ
$286.1万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 202694%はいいいえ
September 30, 202687%はいいいえ
$862.7万 取引高 本日終了
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+1%はいいいえ
80+1%はいいいえ
$5.9万 取引高 本日終了
イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？ イラン政権は2027年までに崩壊する？
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.3万 取引高 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3111%はいいいえ
September 305%はいいいえ
$824.6万 取引高 本日終了
Netanyahuは...までに退任する？Netanyahuは...までに退任する？
December 3141%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$5.1万 取引高 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 157%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$862万 取引高 本日終了
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$68.2万 取引高 31/08
Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
No meeting before 2027No meeting before 202793%はいいいえ
スイススイス3%はいいいえ
$4.7万 取引高 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%はいいいえ
Benjamin Netanyahu35%はいいいえ
$3,046.6万 取引高 31/12
Venezuela leader end of 2026?Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro82%はいいいえ
Delcy Rodríguez10%はいいいえ
$9,481.6万 取引高 31/12
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
1%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.7万 取引高 30/09
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3123%はいいいえ
August 3111%はいいいえ
$171.7万 取引高 本日終了
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
4%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.7万 取引高 31/12
Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?
December 3153%はいいいえ
September 3025%はいいいえ
$3.8万 取引高 31/12
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia NavalnayaYulia Navalnaya10%はいいいえ
Volodymyr ZelenskyyVolodymyr Zelenskyy7%はいいいえ
$2,304.3万 取引高 10/10
イラン政権は9月30日までに崩壊する？ イラン政権は9月30日までに崩壊する？
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.3万 取引高 30/09
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$10.7万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
September 30September 3099%はいいいえ
February 28February 281%はいいいえ
$112.1万 取引高 30/09
12月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？ 12月31日までにホルムズ海峡の通航は正常化する？
51%
確率
はい いいえ
$53万 取引高 31/12
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
August 314%
September 307%
$26.9万 取引高 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 999%はいいいえ
July 1299%はいいいえ
$267.7万 取引高 本日終了
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31December 3157%はいいいえ
September 30September 3019%はいいいえ
$106.6万 取引高 31/12
Trump out as President before 2027? Trump out as President before 2027?
7%
確率
はい いいえ
$3.9万 取引高 31/12
Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?Turkey rejoins F-35 program by...?
December 31, 202611%
June 30, 202732%
$2.7万 取引高 30/06
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
August 3162%はいいいえ
August 1530%はいいいえ
$1.7万 取引高 31/08
WTI原油は___までに史上最高値？WTI原油は___までに史上最高値？
December 3115%はいいいえ
September 305%はいいいえ
$219.3万 取引高 31/12
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Dopropillia75%はいいいえ
Druzkhivka44%はいいいえ
$1.5万 取引高 31/12
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
92%
確率
はい いいえ
$58.6万 取引高 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
オーストラリア2%はいいいえ
アメリカ合衆国1%はいいいえ
$1.4万 取引高 本日終了
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3040%はいいいえ
スイス25%はいいいえ
$1.3万 取引高 30/09
Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31? Will Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?
98%
確率
はい いいえ
$2.6万 取引高 本日終了
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 311%
August 314%
$23.5万 取引高 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei79%はいいいえ
No Head of State7%はいいいえ
$3,736.9万 取引高 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 319%はいいいえ
September 305%はいいいえ
$2,898.3万 取引高 31/12
How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?How long will Trump and Netanyahu shake hands for?
No Handshake99%はいいいえ
2–6s3%はいいいえ
$1.1万 取引高 本日終了
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
48%
確率
はい いいえ
$85.1万 取引高 20/08
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
14%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3124%はいいいえ
August 316%はいいいえ
$96.3万 取引高
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3115%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$131.6万 取引高 本日終了
US military action against Cuba by...?US military action against Cuba by...?
December 31December 3128%はいいいえ
January 31January 311%はいいいえ
$709.7万 取引高 31/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3128%はいいいえ
October 3116%はいいいえ
$24.4万 取引高 31/12
China x Japan military clash before 2027? China x Japan military clash before 2027?
9%
確率
はい いいえ
$117万 取引高 31/12
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
None before 202743%はいいいえ
Netanyahu - Israel PM26%はいいいえ
$8,295 取引高 31/12
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$8.4万 取引高 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3164%はいいいえ
October 3154%はいいいえ
$141.5万 取引高 31/08
NATO dissolves before 2027? NATO dissolves before 2027?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$12.2万 取引高 31/12
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
確率
はい いいえ
$8.2万 取引高 30/09
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
No meeting by December 31No meeting by December 3173%はいいいえ
ChinaChina15%はいいいえ
$7,256 取引高 31/12
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3124%はいいいえ
September 309%はいいいえ
$611.9万 取引高 本日終了
Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner85%はいいいえ
Andy BurnhamAndy Burnham83%はいいいえ
$3.1万 取引高 31/12
7月27日の週にホルムズ海峡を通過する船は何隻？7月27日の週にホルムズ海峡を通過する船は何隻？
50-7455%はいいいえ
75-9923%はいいいえ
$1.6万 取引高 残り3日
Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?Will Russia capture Vodianske by...?
September 3023%
December 3160%
$6.5万 取引高 31/12
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 301%はいいいえ
April 301%はいいいえ
$1,217.5万 取引高 本日終了
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
August 3113%はいいいえ
July 311%はいいいえ
$48.9万 取引高 本日終了
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 316%はいいいえ
June 301%はいいいえ
$2,170.5万 取引高 本日終了
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 319%はいいいえ
August 312%はいいいえ
$88.2万 取引高 31/12
Nothing Ever Happens: JulyNothing Ever Happens: July
Nothing99%
Something1%
$6,105 取引高 本日終了
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
August 743%はいいいえ
August 642%はいいいえ
$6,953 取引高 31/08
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
July 311%
August 3128%
$10.6万 取引高 31/08
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
8%
確率
はい いいえ
$5,227 取引高 31/12
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
8846%はいいいえ
9933%はいいいえ
$159.8万 取引高 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3136%はいいいえ
October 3116%はいいいえ
$576.3万 取引高 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3113%はいいいえ
October 316%はいいいえ
$1,760.9万 取引高 31/12
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
December 3110%
June 301%
$349.6万 取引高 31/12
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 3161%はいいいえ
September 3038%はいいいえ
$23.3万 取引高 31/12
Next Secretary-General of the United NationsNext Secretary-General of the United Nations
Rebeca GrynspanRebeca Grynspan42%はいいいえ
Rafael GrossiRafael Grossi41%はいいいえ
$15.9万 取引高 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 3114%
June 301%
$211.2万 取引高 31/12
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,241 取引高 31/12
NATO article 5 before 2027? NATO article 5 before 2027?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$4,151 取引高 31/12
Will any country leave NATO by...?Will any country leave NATO by...?
December 31, 202550%はいいいえ
December 31, 20263%はいいいえ
$139.8万 取引高 31/12
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by...?
December 3120%はいいいえ
September 3012%はいいいえ
$63万 取引高 本日終了
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
6%
確率
はい いいえ
$1,053.3万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by...?
August 3121%
October 3138%
$1.3万 取引高 31/10
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by...?
December 3111%はいいいえ
September 304%はいいいえ
$52.5万 取引高 31/12
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202650%はいいいえ
December13%はいいいえ
$16.3万 取引高 31/12
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
September 308%
December 3137%
$8.1万 取引高 31/12
イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？ イランは12月31日までにウラン濃縮停止に合意する？
25%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.9万 取引高 31/12
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Cuban regime falls in 2026?
13%
確率
はい いいえ
$157.4万 取引高 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
21%
確率
はい いいえ
$1.1万 取引高 31/12
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