Senate · Midterms

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

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$13.8K Volume

03/11/2026 23:59

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Ohio (Special)

$498 Volume

78%

Texas

$196 Volume

75%

Alaska

$354 Volume

69%

Maine

$188 Volume

66%

Michigan

$409 Volume

97%

Iowa

$746 Volume

97%

New Hampshire

$781 Volume

45%

Nebraska

$1.7K Volume

47%

Minnesota

$2.8K Volume

35%

Florida (Special)

$972 Volume

29%

Montana

20%

North Carolina

$1.5K Volume

33%

New Mexico

$1.1K Volume

11%

Georgia

$163 Volume

58%

Virginia

$857 Volume

Colorado

$1.5K Volume

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Michigan leads the field at 80%, with Ohio (Special) next at 78%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.

What do traders predict for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Traders lean toward Michigan, pricing it at 80%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.

When does the Which Senate races will be within 5% market resolve?

Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (97 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.

How much money is trading on Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Total turnover stands at $13.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.

How can I trade Which Senate races will be within 5% on Polymarket?

Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.