Senate · Midterms

Which Senate races will be within 5%?

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$188.5K Volume

04/11/2026 04:59

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Iowa

$15.6K Volume

81%

Texas

$34.6K Volume

63%

South Carolina

$8.2K Volume

67%

Ohio (Special)

$12.7K Volume

59%

Kansas

$10.9K Volume

62%

Nebraska

$8K Volume

60%

Alaska

$7.8K Volume

78%

Florida (Special)

$13.2K Volume

56%

Michigan

$11.7K Volume

51%

Maine

$6.7K Volume

75%

Louisiana

$174 Volume

96%

Minnesota

$15.9K Volume

50%

New Hampshire

$7.8K Volume

17%

Montana

$4.2K Volume

89%

Mississippi

$1.5K Volume

39%

North Carolina

$10.3K Volume

New Mexico

$8.8K Volume

Georgia

$5.2K Volume

Virginia

$2.5K Volume

Colorado

$2.7K Volume

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.

The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

The current front-runner is Iowa at 80%, ahead of Louisiana at 67%. These live odds update with every trade on the Polymarket order book.

What do traders predict for Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Traders currently imply a 80% chance for Iowa. Market-implied probabilities reflect real money at stake, but they are live forecasts that shift as new information arrives, not guarantees.

When does the Which Senate races will be within 5% market resolve?

This market is scheduled to resolve on 4 Nov 2026 (1 days left). It settles according to Polymarket's published resolution criteria once the outcome is confirmed.

How much money is trading on Which Senate races will be within 5%?

Total traded volume on this market is $188.5K, a measure of how much real money traders have committed to the outcome.

How can I trade Which Senate races will be within 5% on Polymarket?

You can follow the live odds on this page and open the market on Polymarket to trade it yourself. Prediction trading carries risk; never stake more than you can afford to lose.