The MO-01 Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the MO-01 Democratic Primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Missouri, such as official statewide results published by the Missouri Secretary of State (https://www.sos.mo.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Bell <4%
$3.3K Volume
34%
Bell 4–8%
$368 Volume
11%
Bush 4–8%
$363 Volume
28%
Bush <4%
$2.1K Volume
26%
Bush 8–12%
$267 Volume
8%
Bell 8–12%
$401 Volume
10%
Bush 12–16%
$226 Volume
8%
Bell 12–16%
$334 Volume
25%
Bush 16%+
$222 Volume
7%
Bell 16%+
$226 Volume
4%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory?
It's a genuine race: Other edges the field at 50%, barely ahead of Bell <4% at 34%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory?
Traders give Other a 50% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory market resolve?
Mark 4 Aug 2026 (5 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory?
Total turnover stands at $7.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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