Mercati di previsione sulle elezioni

I mercati elettorali sono il cuore di Polymarket: presidenziali USA, primarie di partito, corse al Congresso e il voto di qualsiasi grande democrazia. I mercati sulle elezioni USA del 2024 hanno registrato miliardi di volume.

Il prezzo combina sondaggi, dati sui finanziamenti dei partiti, indicatori economici e cronaca, tutto sintetizzato in un unico valore. Un terreno di trading ricco sia per gli analisti sia per gli investitori guidati dalle opinioni.

93 mercati attivi
Ordina
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%SìNo
July 2999%SìNo
$11,8 Mln Volume 31/08
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio12%SìNo
$674,3 Mln Volume 07/11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom19%SìNo
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff13%SìNo
$1,2 Mld Volume 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%SìNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%SìNo
$116,7 Mln Volume 04/10
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%SìNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%SìNo
$116,9 Mln Volume 30/04
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%SìNo
$682,1 Mln Volume 07/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed95%SìNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens5%SìNo
$1,7 Mln Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SìNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%SìNo
$30,4 Mln Volume 31/12
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)60%SìNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)33%SìNo
$16,5 Mln Volume 20/09
Next Premier of QuebecNext Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre PlamondonPaul St-Pierre Plamondon64%SìNo
Christine FréchetteChristine Fréchette28%SìNo
$141.357 Volume 05/10
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone59%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman37%SìNo
$521.870 Volume 11/08
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage98%SìNo
Count BinfaceCount Binface2%SìNo
$3 Mln Volume 13/08
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney83%SìNo
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar17%SìNo
$147.214 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro79%SìNo
Renan SantosRenan Santos8%SìNo
$4,4 Mln Volume 04/10
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed 10–15%24%SìNo
El-Sayed 15–20%24%SìNo
$54.874 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Wesley BellWesley Bell65%SìNo
Cori BushCori Bush37%SìNo
$219.888 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%SìNo
R Senate, D House43%SìNo
$9 Mln Volume 03/11
Bulgaria Presidential ElectionBulgaria Presidential Election
Iliana IotovaIliana Iotova76%SìNo
Аndrey GyurovАndrey Gyurov21%SìNo
$279.906 Volume 30/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed71%SìNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens19%SìNo
$36.518 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?
354%SìNo
430%SìNo
$30.990 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig99%SìNo
Geraldine CogginsGeraldine Coggins1%SìNo
$410.722 Volume Termina oggi
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed66%SìNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens35%SìNo
$42.822 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong96%SìNo
David CrowleyDavid Crowley4%SìNo
$276.133 Volume 11/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds97%SìNo
James FishbackJames Fishback2%SìNo
$2,2 Mln Volume 18/08
Which Senate races will be within 5%?Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Ohio (Special)79%SìNo
Michigan75%SìNo
$18.218 Volume 03/11
MI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
William LawrenceWilliam Lawrence93%SìNo
Matt MaasdamMatt Maasdam6%SìNo
$115.614 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo80%SìNo
Santiago AbascalSantiago Abascal11%SìNo
$87.652 Volume 31/03
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson84%SìNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson12%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 13/09
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
BNBN75%SìNo
PHPH26%SìNo
$109.591 Volume 2 giorni rimanenti
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra92%SìNo
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%SìNo
$40,5 Mln Volume 03/11
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr73%SìNo
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist27%SìNo
$33.185 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Michigan Governor Republican Primary WinnerMichigan Governor Republican Primary Winner
John JamesJohn James95%SìNo
Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson6%SìNo
$159.375 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Mateus SimõesMateus Simões22%SìNo
Cleitinho AzevedoCleitinho Azevedo22%SìNo
$138.339 Volume 04/10
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Hong 30%+39%SìNo
Hong 20–25%22%SìNo
$11.593 Volume 11/08
Nigerian Presidential Election WinnerNigerian Presidential Election Winner
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%SìNo
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%SìNo
$90.624 Volume 16/01
MI-10 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Christina HinesChristina Hines89%SìNo
Eric ChungEric Chung7%SìNo
$70.969 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud57%SìNo
YasharYashar42%SìNo
$185.839 Volume 27/10
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface79%SìNo
William CloustonWilliam Clouston9%SìNo
$318.856 Volume 13/08
Quale partito vincerà il Senato nel 2026?Quale partito vincerà il Senato nel 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%SìNo
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%SìNo
$3,3 Mln Volume 03/11
CA-08 House Election WinnerCA-08 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SìNo
Republican Party6%SìNo
$27.504 Volume 03/11
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 306%
$128.388 Volume 30/09
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican85%SìNo
DemocratDemocrat16%SìNo
$35.872 Volume 03/11
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
37%
probabilità
Sì No
$211.308 Volume 06/09
Ohio Senate Election WinnerOhio Senate Election Winner
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)52%SìNo
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)50%SìNo
$116.384 Volume 03/11
Tennessee Governor Republican Primary WinnerTennessee Governor Republican Primary Winner
Marsha BlackburnMarsha Blackburn92%SìNo
John RoseJohn Rose8%SìNo
$34.389 Volume 6 giorni rimanenti
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty MastersonTy Masterson80%SìNo
Philip SarneckiPhilip Sarnecki20%SìNo
$96.163 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
2%
probabilità
Sì No
$14.572 Volume 31/08
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%SìNo
RepublicanRepublican32%SìNo
$143.474 Volume 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei52%SìNo
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof43%SìNo
$388.884 Volume 24/10
Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?Quale partito vincerà la Camera dei Rappresentanti nel 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%SìNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%SìNo
$5.488 Volume 03/11
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20%35%SìNo
Binface 20–30%28%SìNo
$177.622 Volume 13/08
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema87%SìNo
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile9%SìNo
$118.170 Volume 14/08
MI-11 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Jeremy MossJeremy Moss88%SìNo
Aisha FarooqiAisha Farooqi13%SìNo
$53.335 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris13%SìNo
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg11%SìNo
$984.322 Volume 31/12
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round WinnerSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone79%SìNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%SìNo
$13.396 Volume 11/08
How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Above 5041%SìNo
Above 5537%SìNo
$4.604 Volume 01/01
Next President of Hungary?Next President of Hungary?
Adrienn LaczóAdrienn Laczó21%SìNo
Péter BárándyPéter Bárándy16%SìNo
$4.401 Volume 18/08
Kansas Governor Republican Primary Margin of VictoryKansas Governor Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Masterson <5%33%SìNo
Masterson 10–15%22%SìNo
$4.447 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMinnesota Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Peggy FlanaganPeggy Flanagan83%SìNo
Angie CraigAngie Craig17%SìNo
$94.004 Volume 11/08
FL-06 Republican Primary WinnerFL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Randy FineRandy Fine96%SìNo
Dan BilzerianDan Bilzerian1%SìNo
$213.659 Volume 18/08
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%SìNo
RepublicanRepublican33%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 03/11
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Jerry Moran67%SìNo
Mike Lee55%SìNo
$3.856 Volume 01/01
WA-03 Primary First PlaceWA-03 Primary First Place
John BraunJohn Braun80%SìNo
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezMarie Gluesenkamp Perez21%SìNo
$37.970 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)51%SìNo
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)49%SìNo
$625.686 Volume 03/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Kent County (Grand Rapids) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Kent County (Grand Rapids) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed96%SìNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens4%SìNo
$14.144 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SìNo
Democratic Party13%SìNo
$42.205 Volume 03/11
Kansas Governor Democratic Primary WinnerKansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher84%SìNo
Ethan CorsonEthan Corson16%SìNo
$78.844 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference VotesGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev CraigBev Craig99%SìNo
Dan BarkerDan Barker1%SìNo
$69.458 Volume Termina oggi
Morocco Legislative Elections: Party WinnerMorocco Legislative Elections: Party Winner
PAMPAM47%SìNo
RNIRNI37%SìNo
$3.485 Volume 23/09
MO-04 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-04 Democratic Primary Winner
Hartzell GrayHartzell Gray86%SìNo
Jordan HerreraJordan Herrera14%SìNo
$15.196 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ62%SìNo
CAQCAQ26%SìNo
$721.198 Volume 05/10
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed52%SìNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens47%SìNo
$7.878 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–366%SìNo
4–532%SìNo
$12.463 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Mexico Legislative Election WinnerMexico Legislative Election Winner
MorenaMorena91%SìNo
PRIPRI5%SìNo
$82.362 Volume 06/06
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%SìNo
September 3088%SìNo
$233.513 Volume 31/12
North Vancouver—Capilano By-Election WinnerNorth Vancouver—Capilano By-Election Winner
Braeden CaleyBraeden Caley89%SìNo
Stephen CurranStephen Curran4%SìNo
$2.893 Volume 31/08
ME-02 House Election WinnerME-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party57%SìNo
Democratic Party40%SìNo
$6.729 Volume 03/11
Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?Who will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance39%SìNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio26%SìNo
$2.724 Volume 06/11
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell69%SìNo
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth32%SìNo
$477.930 Volume 11/08
TN-06 Republican Primary WinnerTN-06 Republican Primary Winner
Johnny Garrett73%SìNo
Van Hilleary28%SìNo
$7.744 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Peru Presidential Election Invalidated? Peru Presidential Election Invalidated?
1%
probabilità
Sì No
$90.782 Volume Termina oggi
TN-05 Republican Primary WinnerTN-05 Republican Primary Winner
Andy Ogles75%SìNo
Charlie Hatcher20%SìNo
$13.649 Volume 7 giorni rimanenti
Tallahassee Mayoral Election WinnerTallahassee Mayoral Election Winner
Loranne AusleyLoranne Ausley50%SìNo
Jeremy MatlowJeremy Matlow34%SìNo
$113.730 Volume 18/08
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich33%SìNo
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson30%SìNo
$1,1 Mln Volume 03/11
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-2437%SìNo
25-2925%SìNo
$87.886 Volume 27/10
FL-23 Democratic Primary WinnerFL-23 Democratic Primary Winner
Lois FrankelLois Frankel98%SìNo
Victoria DoyleVictoria Doyle2%SìNo
$52.112 Volume 18/08
CA-45 House Election WinnerCA-45 House Election Winner
Democratic Party88%SìNo
Republican Party13%SìNo
$24.466 Volume 03/11
Adygea Parliament Election: Party WinnerAdygea Parliament Election: Party Winner
United RussiaUnited Russia98%SìNo
Communists of RussiaCommunists of Russia1%SìNo
$6.003 Volume 20/09
PA-14 House Election WinnerPA-14 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SìNo
Democratic Party6%SìNo
$12.215 Volume 03/11
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Thanedar <4%32%SìNo
McKinney 4–8%26%SìNo
$3.759 Volume 5 giorni rimanenti
Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
≤4724%SìNo
5115%SìNo
$2,7 Mln Volume 03/11
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton96%SìNo
Christy DavisChristy Davis2%SìNo
$168.998 Volume 4 giorni rimanenti
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Labour 0-5%Labour 0-5%36%SìNo
National 0-5%National 0-5%31%SìNo
$8.274 Volume 07/11
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FAQ sui mercati elettorali

Perché i mercati elettorali sono accurati?

Richiedono di "metterci del proprio": le persone puntano denaro sulle proprie idee, filtrando il rumore di bassa qualità. Maggiore è il volume, più affidabile è il prezzo.

Quali mercati elettorali sono attivi ora?

USA 2028, Israele (per data), elezioni locali nel Regno Unito e nell'UE, oltre alle primarie di partito. Segui la nostra pagina per gli aggiornamenti.

Come valuto il rischio nei mercati elettorali?

Controlla la liquidità (profondità dell'order book), la volatilità storica e la data della decisione. I mercati con poca liquidità tendono a un prezzo inefficiente.

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