This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088
The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment.
This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," voting "Present," being absent, being paired, or no longer serving in the Senate at the time of the vote.
Once the vote has closed and the result has been announced, any subsequent request by the named Senator to add, remove, or change their vote will not be considered for purposes of this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally.
This market will resolve according to official records of the U.S. Senate (http://senate.gov) and Library of Congress (http://congress.gov).
Lisa Blunt Rochester
$777 Volume
76%
Thom Tillis
$75 Volume
97%
Kirsten Gillibrand
$181 Volume
44%
Jerry Moran
$479 Volume
88%
Andy Kim
$153 Volume
23%
Josh Hawley
$605 Volume
55%
Rand Paul
$62 Volume
9%
Raphael Warnock
$160 Volume
47%
Mike Lee
$238 Volume
91%
Catherine Cortez Masto
$173 Volume
12%
Mark Warner
$80 Volume
49%
Ruben Gallego
$265 Volume
24%
John Fetterman
$83 Volume
52%
Jacky Rosen
$60 Volume
56%
Alex Padilla
$20 Volume
56%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis leads the field at 70%, with Jerry Moran next at 63%. A solid favorite - though every trade can reshuffle the board.
What do traders predict for Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Traders lean toward Thom Tillis, pricing it at 70%. That's conviction with real money behind it - but live forecasts shift, sometimes quickly.
When does the Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act market resolve?
Mark 1 Jan 2027 (155 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Traders have put $3.4K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
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