选举预测市场

选举市场是Polymarket的核心 — 美国总统、党内初选、国会竞选,以及任何主要民主国家的投票。2024年美国选举市场的交易量达数十亿。

定价结合了民调、党派财务数据、经济指标和报道 — 所有信息都浓缩成一个价格。为分析师和以观点驱动的投资者提供了丰富的交易基础。

146 个活跃市场
排序
July 2899%
July 2999%
JD VanceJD Vance20%
Marco RubioMarco Rubio12%
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom19%
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff14%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed97%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens3%
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen29%
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%
Gadi Eizenkot52%
Benjamin Netanyahu35%
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)61%
New People (NL)New People (NL)32%
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone58%
Ralph NormanRalph Norman39%
Paul St-Pierre PlamondonPaul St-Pierre Plamondon64%
Christine FréchetteChristine Fréchette27%
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney83%
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar18%
Nigel FarageNigel Farage98%
Count BinfaceCount Binface2%
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro79%
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva8%
Democrats Sweep44%
R Senate, D House43%
El-Sayed 15–20%30%
El-Sayed 10–15%25%
Wesley BellWesley Bell65%
Cori BushCori Bush37%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed80%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens17%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens51%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed50%
Iliana IotovaIliana Iotova76%
Аndrey GyurovАndrey Gyurov21%
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong96%
David CrowleyDavid Crowley3%
LikudLikud69%
YasharYashar25%
Republican Party93%
Democratic Party6%
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds97%
James FishbackJames Fishback2%
BNBN71%
PHPH29%
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo80%
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez11%
John JamesJohn James93%
Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson7%
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson83%
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson14%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party84%
Republican PartyRepublican Party16%
Republican Party85%
Democratic Party15%
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra92%
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%
Pete FryPete Fry30%
Ken SimKen Sim24%
Callie BarrCallie Barr73%
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist28%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed72%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens24%
Republican Party56%
Democratic Party41%
Republican Party84%
Democratic Party15%
Christina HinesChristina Hines92%
Eric ChungEric Chung6%
Bola TinubuBola Tinubu69%
Peter ObiPeter Obi24%
Cleitinho AzevedoCleitinho Azevedo28%
Mateus SimõesMateus Simões23%
Republican Party82%
Democratic Party16%
Bev CraigBev Craig99%
Geraldine CogginsGeraldine Coggins1%
Republican Party81%
Democratic Party17%
Republican Party91%
Democratic Party8%
Count BinfaceCount Binface79%
William CloustonWilliam Clouston8%
RepublicanRepublican87%
DemocratDemocrat14%
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher88%
Ethan CorsonEthan Corson10%
Republican Party87%
Democratic Party13%
Republican Party88%
Democratic Party10%
Democratic Party97%
Republican Party2%
Republican Party82%
Democratic Party16%
Democratic Party95%
Republican Party6%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party77%
Republican PartyRepublican Party24%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party6%
Marsha BlackburnMarsha Blackburn92%
John RoseJohn Rose8%
Democratic Party95%
Republican Party6%
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%
Ty MastersonTy Masterson81%
Philip SarneckiPhilip Sarnecki18%
DemocratDemocrat69%
RepublicanRepublican33%
Joy PowersJoy Powers57%
Adam MurphyAdam Murphy31%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party6%
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema87%
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile9%
DemocratDemocrat88%
RepublicanRepublican13%
Democratic Party95%
Republican Party5%
Jeremy MossJeremy Moss88%
Aisha FarooqiAisha Farooqi11%
Republican Party68%
Democratic Party33%
Binface 10–20%35%
Binface 20–30%28%
Ohio (Special)77%
Michigan76%
20-2430%
25-2925%
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)97%
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party6%
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone78%
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%
Republican Party85%
Democratic Party15%
Thom Tillis85%
Jerry Moran42%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party7%
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)51%
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)50%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party6%
Kamala HarrisKamala Harris12%
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg11%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%
Braeden CaleyBraeden Caley94%
Stephen CurranStephen Curran4%
Péter BárándyPéter Bárándy32%
Adrienn LaczóAdrienn Laczó21%
Republican Party87%
Democratic Party10%
Bell <4%34%
Bush <4%23%
DemocratDemocrat68%
RepublicanRepublican34%
Randy FineRandy Fine96%
Dan BilzerianDan Bilzerian1%
William LawrenceWilliam Lawrence94%
Matt MaasdamMatt Maasdam6%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens22%
Republican Party81%
Democratic Party17%
Republican Party87%
Democratic Party13%
Peggy FlanaganPeggy Flanagan83%
Angie CraigAngie Craig17%
Hong 30%+41%
Hong 20–25%22%
Jerônimo RodriguesJerônimo Rodrigues56%
ACM NetoACM Neto45%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party6%
Sherrod Brown (D)Sherrod Brown (D)52%
Jon Husted (R)Jon Husted (R)49%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party5%
Flanagan 15–20%25%
Flanagan 10–15%24%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party2%
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli99%
Pierre Chanel TutugoroPierre Chanel Tutugoro1%
Republican Party83%
Democratic Party17%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party7%
Shannon TaylorShannon Taylor98%
Salaam BhattiSalaam Bhatti1%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party4%
Republican Party87%
Democratic Party12%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed96%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens4%
2–366%
4–533%
Republican Party91%
Democratic Party10%
Republican Party93%
Democratic Party7%
Bev CraigBev Craig99%
Dan BarkerDan Barker1%
Hartzell GrayHartzell Gray86%
Jordan HerreraJordan Herrera14%
Republican Party87%
Democratic Party11%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party5%
≤4723%
5115%
Above 6045%
Above 5040%
Masterson 10–15%25%
Masterson 25%+22%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party91%
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%
Republican PartyRepublican Party10%
DemocraticDemocratic59%
RepublicanRepublican41%
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed8%
Haley StevensHaley Stevens2%
Javier MileiJavier Milei52%
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof43%
Republican Party93%
Democratic Party8%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party6%
Democratic Party97%
Republican Party2%
Joe Strada55%
Carey Baker31%
Republican Party72%
Democratic Party29%
Željka CvijanovićŽeljka Cvijanović84%
Siniša KaranSiniša Karan2%
Tom BegichTom Begich33%
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson29%
Republican Party91%
Democratic Party8%
Republican Party94%
Democratic Party6%
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance37%
Marco RubioMarco Rubio30%
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)1%
Republican Party58%
Democratic Party40%
PQPQ62%
CAQCAQ26%
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton95%
Christy DavisChristy Davis2%
Republican Party79%
Democratic Party21%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party7%
Democratic Party96%
Republican Party6%
Republican Party91%
Democratic Party10%
Republican Party93%
Democratic Party7%
Republican Party88%
Democratic Party8%
Democratic Party94%
Republican Party6%
December 3189%
September 3088%
National 0-5%National 0-5%40%
Labour 0-5%Labour 0-5%34%

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选举市场常见问题

为什么选举市场准确?

它们需要“投入真实资金” — 人们将钱投入他们的观点,从而过滤掉低质量的噪音。交易量越大,价格越可靠。

现在有哪些选举市场在进行?

美国2028年、以色列(按日期)、英国和欧盟地方选举,以及党内初选。请关注我们的页面以获取更新。

我如何在选举市场中定价风险?

检查流动性(订单簿深度)、历史波动性和决策日期。流动性不足的市场容易出现低效定价。

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