Mercados de Predicción Electoral

Los mercados electorales son el núcleo de Polymarket: elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU., primarias de partidos, carreras congresuales y cualquier voto de una democracia importante. Los mercados electorales de EE. UU. 2024 registraron miles de millones en volumen.

La fijación de precios combina encuestas, datos de financiamiento de partidos, indicadores económicos e informes, todo destilado en un solo precio. Un terreno de negociación rico tanto para analistas como para inversores impulsados por opiniones.

116 mercados activos
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Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio13%SíNo
$674,9 M Vol 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%SíNo
July 2999%SíNo
$12,2 M Vol 31/08
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%SíNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%SíNo
$117 M Vol 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom19%SíNo
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff14%SíNo
$1.249,8 M Vol 07/11
¿Qué partido ganará el Senado en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará el Senado en 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%SíNo
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%SíNo
$3,4 M Vol 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep45%SíNo
R Senate, D House43%SíNo
$9,1 M Vol 03/11
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)62%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)32%SíNo
$16,5 M Vol 20/09
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%SíNo
$682,1 M Vol 07/11
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%SíNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%SíNo
$116,9 M Vol 30/04
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage97%SíNo
Count BinfaceCount Binface2%SíNo
$3,1 M Vol 13/08
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney84%SíNo
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar17%SíNo
$212,6 mil Vol 4 días restantes
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3141%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$50,9 mil Vol 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%SíNo
Benjamin Netanyahu35%SíNo
$30,5 M Vol 31/12
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed96%SíNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens3%SíNo
$1,7 M Vol 4 días restantes
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone63%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman31%SíNo
$548,1 mil Vol 11/08
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
BNBN74%SíNo
PHPH27%SíNo
$128,8 mil Vol 2 días restantes
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%SíNo
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%SíNo
$40,5 M Vol 03/11
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface79%SíNo
William CloustonWilliam Clouston8%SíNo
$338,6 mil Vol 13/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Wesley BellWesley Bell71%SíNo
Cori BushCori Bush29%SíNo
$233,8 mil Vol 4 días restantes
CA-23 House Election WinnerCA-23 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%SíNo
Democratic Party6%SíNo
$58,2 mil Vol 03/11
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo80%SíNo
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez9%SíNo
$91,7 mil Vol 31/03
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds97%SíNo
James FishbackJames Fishback2%SíNo
$2,2 M Vol 18/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed63%SíNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens37%SíNo
$20,6 mil Vol 4 días restantes
VA-02 House Election WinnerVA-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party84%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party16%SíNo
$16,1 mil Vol 04/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed 15–20%33%SíNo
El-Sayed 10–15%29%SíNo
$59,6 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner
Haley StevensHaley Stevens58%SíNo
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed43%SíNo
$54,7 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud61%SíNo
YasharYashar32%SíNo
$197,2 mil Vol 27/10
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%SíNo
Democratic Party16%SíNo
$51 mil Vol 03/11
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro78%SíNo
Renan SantosRenan Santos9%SíNo
$4,4 M Vol 04/10
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis82%SíNo
Jerry Moran55%SíNo
$15,2 mil Vol 01/01
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell73%SíNo
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth25%SíNo
$489,2 mil Vol 11/08
Michigan Governor Republican Primary WinnerMichigan Governor Republican Primary Winner
John JamesJohn James94%SíNo
Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson6%SíNo
$168 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry25%SíNo
Ken SimKen Sim24%SíNo
$158,2 mil Vol 17/10
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry25%SíNo
Ken SimKen Sim24%SíNo
$158,2 mil Vol 17/10
FL-22 House Election WinnerFL-22 House Election Winner
Republican Party58%SíNo
Democratic Party41%SíNo
$34,8 mil Vol 03/11
MN-06 House Election WinnerMN-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party83%SíNo
Democratic Party16%SíNo
$32,3 mil Vol 03/11
MI-10 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Christina HinesChristina Hines89%SíNo
Eric ChungEric Chung6%SíNo
$72,6 mil Vol 4 días restantes
TX-24 House Election WinnerTX-24 House Election Winner
Republican Party84%SíNo
Democratic Party15%SíNo
$55,9 mil Vol 03/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
32%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$963,9 mil Vol 03/01
2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner
Mo Ivory97%SíNo
Eric J. Tatum2%SíNo
$16,7 mil Vol 03/11
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DemocraticDemocratic60%SíNo
RepublicanRepublican41%SíNo
$1,9 M Vol 07/11
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
98%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$144,5 mil Vol 15/08
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second PlaceSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place
Ralph NormanRalph Norman50%SíNo
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone37%SíNo
$8,6 mil Vol 11/08
NC-07 House Election WinnerNC-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party81%SíNo
Democratic Party16%SíNo
$26,5 mil Vol 03/11
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat90%SíNo
RepublicanRepublican10%SíNo
$89,6 mil Vol 03/11
Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary WinnerWisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary Winner
Nate Pollnow81%SíNo
Jay Schroeder10%SíNo
$18,8 mil Vol 11/08
TX-21 House Election WinnerTX-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SíNo
Democratic Party13%SíNo
$57,6 mil Vol 03/11
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty MastersonTy Masterson84%SíNo
Philip SarneckiPhilip Sarnecki15%SíNo
$100 mil Vol 4 días restantes
TX-06 House Election WinnerTX-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%SíNo
Democratic Party8%SíNo
$35,4 mil Vol 03/11
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho AzevedoCleitinho Azevedo43%SíNo
Mateus SimõesMateus Simões24%SíNo
$143,5 mil Vol 04/10
MI-03 House Election WinnerMI-03 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party10%SíNo
$8,8 mil Vol 04/11
MD-04 House Election WinnerMD-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party97%SíNo
Republican Party2%SíNo
$45,1 mil Vol 03/11
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich29%SíNo
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson29%SíNo
$1,1 M Vol 03/11
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party88%SíNo
Democratic Party10%SíNo
$24 mil Vol 03/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%SíNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens22%SíNo
$41,2 mil Vol 4 días restantes
AK-AL House Election WinnerAK-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party83%SíNo
Democratic Party16%SíNo
$25,5 mil Vol 03/11
PA-07 House Election WinnerPA-07 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party77%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party24%SíNo
$12,2 mil Vol 04/11
VA-04 House Election WinnerVA-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%SíNo
Republican Party6%SíNo
$24,6 mil Vol 03/11
RI-02 House Election WinnerRI-02 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party6%SíNo
$22,2 mil Vol 03/11
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema88%SíNo
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%SíNo
$124,3 mil Vol 14/08
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli99%SíNo
Pierre Chanel TutugoroPierre Chanel Tutugoro1%SíNo
$60,7 mil Vol 30/06
CA-25 House Election WinnerCA-25 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party6%SíNo
$16,7 mil Vol 03/11
OH-06 House Election WinnerOH-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SíNo
Democratic Party7%SíNo
$58,5 mil Vol 03/11
How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?
363%SíNo
430%SíNo
$33,3 mil Vol 5 días restantes
SC-01 House Election WinnerSC-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party69%SíNo
Democratic Party31%SíNo
$51,1 mil Vol 03/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)97%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%SíNo
$2,9 M Vol 20/09
NY-08 House Election WinnerNY-08 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$32,5 mil Vol 03/11
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)52%SíNo
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)50%SíNo
$628,1 mil Vol 03/11
Next President of Hungary?Next President of Hungary?
Botond FülöpBotond Fülöp25%SíNo
Adrienn LaczóAdrienn Laczó22%SíNo
$6,1 mil Vol 18/08
VA-09 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Joy PowersJoy Powers60%SíNo
Adam MurphyAdam Murphy37%SíNo
$8,1 mil Vol 5 días restantes
TX-27 House Election WinnerTX-27 House Election Winner
Republican Party88%SíNo
Democratic Party10%SíNo
$26,7 mil Vol 03/11
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican88%SíNo
DemocratDemocrat13%SíNo
$37,3 mil Vol 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong96%SíNo
David CrowleyDavid Crowley3%SíNo
$277,1 mil Vol 11/08
Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party WinnerNovgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
United RussiaUnited Russia99%SíNo
Communists of RussiaCommunists of Russia1%SíNo
$6,4 mil Vol 20/09
Kansas Governor Democratic Primary WinnerKansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher93%SíNo
Ethan CorsonEthan Corson8%SíNo
$84,1 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Next President of Estonia?Next President of Estonia?
Ülle MadiseÜlle Madise62%SíNo
Jonatan VseviovJonatan Vseviov15%SíNo
$5,3 mil Vol 02/09
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
McKinney 16%+31%SíNo
McKinney 8–12%20%SíNo
$8,6 mil Vol 5 días restantes
NJ-03 House Election WinnerNJ-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party6%SíNo
$25,2 mil Vol 03/11
FL-11 Republican Primary WinnerFL-11 Republican Primary Winner
Joe Strada64%SíNo
Carey Baker32%SíNo
$9,9 mil Vol 18/08
North Vancouver—Capilano By-Election WinnerNorth Vancouver—Capilano By-Election Winner
Braeden CaleyBraeden Caley98%SíNo
Stephen CurranStephen Curran1%SíNo
$4,7 mil Vol 31/08
TX-31 House Election WinnerTX-31 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%SíNo
Democratic Party15%SíNo
$32,9 mil Vol 03/11
AL-06 House Election WinnerAL-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SíNo
Democratic Party7%SíNo
$22,3 mil Vol 03/11
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Bell <4%25%SíNo
Bush 4–8%21%SíNo
$7,9 mil Vol 5 días restantes
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20%35%SíNo
Binface 20–30%31%SíNo
$180,3 mil Vol 13/08
FL-28 House Election WinnerFL-28 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SíNo
Democratic Party6%SíNo
$29,3 mil Vol 03/11
MA-01 House Election WinnerMA-01 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party6%SíNo
$34,1 mil Vol 03/11
FL-06 Republican Primary WinnerFL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Randy FineRandy Fine96%SíNo
Dan BilzerianDan Bilzerian1%SíNo
$213,8 mil Vol 18/08
GA-12 House Election WinnerGA-12 House Election Winner
Republican Party81%SíNo
Democratic Party17%SíNo
$25,8 mil Vol 03/11
TX-10 House Election WinnerTX-10 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SíNo
Democratic Party13%SíNo
$26,6 mil Vol 03/11
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-2429%SíNo
25-2928%SíNo
$92 mil Vol 27/10
MI-11 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Jeremy MossJeremy Moss89%SíNo
Aisha FarooqiAisha Farooqi9%SíNo
$56,2 mil Vol 4 días restantes
SC-07 House Election WinnerSC-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%SíNo
Democratic Party7%SíNo
$20,9 mil Vol 03/11
2026 Cameron County Judge Election Winner2026 Cameron County Judge Election Winner
Esteban "Steve" Guerra92%SíNo
Mauro Garza7%SíNo
$4,6 mil Vol 03/11
FL-20 House Election WinnerFL-20 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party5%SíNo
$26,8 mil Vol 03/11
NC-14 House Election WinnerNC-14 House Election Winner
Republican Party83%SíNo
Democratic Party17%SíNo
$30,4 mil Vol 03/11
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–366%SíNo
4–533%SíNo
$13 mil Vol 5 días restantes
VA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Shannon TaylorShannon Taylor98%SíNo
Salaam BhattiSalaam Bhatti1%SíNo
$18,1 mil Vol 5 días restantes
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party91%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%SíNo
$18,3 mil Vol 04/11
Bahia Governor Election WinnerBahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo RodriguesJerônimo Rodrigues55%SíNo
ACM NetoACM Neto46%SíNo
$96,4 mil Vol 04/10
GA-05 House Election WinnerGA-05 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party2%SíNo
$44,5 mil Vol 03/11
SD-AL House Election WinnerSD-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SíNo
Democratic Party4%SíNo
$27,6 mil Vol 03/11
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMinnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Flanagan 15–20%25%SíNo
Flanagan 10–15%24%SíNo
$9,6 mil Vol 11/08
TX-25 House Election WinnerTX-25 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SíNo
Democratic Party12%SíNo
$8,7 mil Vol 03/11
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%SíNo
Republican Party7%SíNo
$24,1 mil Vol 03/11
TX-03 House Election WinnerTX-03 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%SíNo
Democratic Party11%SíNo
$22,2 mil Vol 03/11
IL-01 House Election WinnerIL-01 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party4%SíNo
$49 mil Vol 03/11
VA-06 House Election WinnerVA-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%SíNo
Democratic Party10%SíNo
$104,6 mil Vol 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei54%SíNo
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof40%SíNo
$392,2 mil Vol 24/10
¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%SíNo
$3,4 mil Vol 03/11
TX-37 House Election WinnerTX-37 House Election Winner
Democratic Party97%SíNo
Republican Party2%SíNo
$33,7 mil Vol 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Hong 30%+63%SíNo
Hong 25–30%13%SíNo
$13,8 mil Vol 11/08
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
2%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$14,8 mil Vol 31/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton95%SíNo
Christy DavisChristy Davis2%SíNo
$170,2 mil Vol 4 días restantes
Which Senate races will be within 5%?Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Ohio (Special)76%SíNo
Michigan75%SíNo
$21,1 mil Vol 03/11
TX-36 House Election WinnerTX-36 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%SíNo
Democratic Party8%SíNo
$28,1 mil Vol 03/11
SC-03 House Election WinnerSC-03 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%SíNo
Democratic Party6%SíNo
$39,9 mil Vol 03/11
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