Mga Pamilihan ng Prediksyon sa Halalan

Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan ay pangunahing bahagi ng Polymarket: mga halalan sa pagkapangulo ng US, mga pangunahing partido, mga laban sa kongreso, at anumang boto ng pangunahing demokrasya. Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan sa US 2024 ay nakapag-book ng bilyon-bilyong halaga.

Pinagsasama-sama ng pagpepresyo ang mga poll, datos ng pananalapi ng partido, mga tagapagpahiwatig ng ekonomiya at mga ulat, lahat ay pinagsama sa isang presyo. Mayamang pook ng kalakalan para sa parehong mga analyst at mga mamumuhunan na nakabatay sa opinyon.

116 aktibong market
Ayusin
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%OoHindi
Marco RubioMarco Rubio13%OoHindi
$674.9M Dami 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2899%OoHindi
July 2999%OoHindi
$12.2M Dami 31/08
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva64%OoHindi
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%OoHindi
$117M Dami 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom19%OoHindi
Jon OssoffJon Ossoff14%OoHindi
$1.25B Dami 07/11
Aling partido ang mananalo sa Senado sa 2026?Aling partido ang mananalo sa Senado sa 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%OoHindi
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%OoHindi
$3.4M Dami 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep45%OoHindi
R Senate, D House43%OoHindi
$9.1M Dami 03/11
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)62%OoHindi
New People (NL)New People (NL)32%OoHindi
$16.5M Dami 20/09
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%OoHindi
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%OoHindi
$682.1M Dami 07/11
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen30%OoHindi
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe26%OoHindi
$116.9M Dami 30/04
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage97%OoHindi
Count BinfaceCount Binface2%OoHindi
$3.1M Dami 13/08
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney84%OoHindi
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar17%OoHindi
$212.6K Dami 4 araw pa
Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?
December 3141%OoHindi
July 311%OoHindi
$50.9K Dami 31/12
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot52%OoHindi
Benjamin Netanyahu35%OoHindi
$30.5M Dami 31/12
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed96%OoHindi
Haley StevensHaley Stevens3%OoHindi
$1.7M Dami 4 araw pa
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone63%OoHindi
Ralph NormanRalph Norman31%OoHindi
$548.1K Dami 11/08
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
BNBN74%OoHindi
PHPH27%OoHindi
$128.8K Dami 2 araw pa
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%OoHindi
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton6%OoHindi
$40.5M Dami 03/11
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface79%OoHindi
William CloustonWilliam Clouston8%OoHindi
$338.6K Dami 13/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Wesley BellWesley Bell71%OoHindi
Cori BushCori Bush29%OoHindi
$233.8K Dami 4 araw pa
CA-23 House Election WinnerCA-23 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%OoHindi
Democratic Party6%OoHindi
$58.2K Dami 03/11
Next Prime Minister of Spain?Next Prime Minister of Spain?
Alberto Núñez FeijóoAlberto Núñez Feijóo80%OoHindi
Pedro SánchezPedro Sánchez9%OoHindi
$91.7K Dami 31/03
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds97%OoHindi
James FishbackJames Fishback2%OoHindi
$2.2M Dami 18/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Genesee County (Flint) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed63%OoHindi
Haley StevensHaley Stevens37%OoHindi
$20.6K Dami 4 araw pa
VA-02 House Election WinnerVA-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party84%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party16%OoHindi
$16.1K Dami 04/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
El-Sayed 15–20%33%OoHindi
El-Sayed 10–15%29%OoHindi
$59.6K Dami 4 araw pa
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner
Haley StevensHaley Stevens58%OoHindi
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed43%OoHindi
$54.7K Dami 4 araw pa
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud61%OoHindi
YasharYashar32%OoHindi
$197.2K Dami 27/10
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%OoHindi
Democratic Party16%OoHindi
$51K Dami 03/11
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro78%OoHindi
Renan SantosRenan Santos9%OoHindi
$4.4M Dami 04/10
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
Thom Tillis82%OoHindi
Jerry Moran55%OoHindi
$15.2K Dami 01/01
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell73%OoHindi
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth25%OoHindi
$489.2K Dami 11/08
Michigan Governor Republican Primary WinnerMichigan Governor Republican Primary Winner
John JamesJohn James94%OoHindi
Perry JohnsonPerry Johnson6%OoHindi
$168K Dami 4 araw pa
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry25%OoHindi
Ken SimKen Sim24%OoHindi
$158.2K Dami 17/10
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry25%OoHindi
Ken SimKen Sim24%OoHindi
$158.2K Dami 17/10
FL-22 House Election WinnerFL-22 House Election Winner
Republican Party58%OoHindi
Democratic Party41%OoHindi
$34.8K Dami 03/11
MN-06 House Election WinnerMN-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party83%OoHindi
Democratic Party16%OoHindi
$32.3K Dami 03/11
MI-10 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-10 Democratic Primary Winner
Christina HinesChristina Hines89%OoHindi
Eric ChungEric Chung6%OoHindi
$72.6K Dami 4 araw pa
TX-24 House Election WinnerTX-24 House Election Winner
Republican Party84%OoHindi
Democratic Party15%OoHindi
$55.9K Dami 03/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
32%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$963.9K Dami 03/01
2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner2026 Fulton County Commission Chair Election Winner
Mo Ivory97%OoHindi
Eric J. Tatum2%OoHindi
$16.7K Dami 03/11
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DemocraticDemocratic60%OoHindi
RepublicanRepublican41%OoHindi
$1.9M Dami 07/11
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
98%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$144.5K Dami 15/08
South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second PlaceSouth Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Second Place
Ralph NormanRalph Norman50%OoHindi
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone37%OoHindi
$8.6K Dami 11/08
NC-07 House Election WinnerNC-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party81%OoHindi
Democratic Party16%OoHindi
$26.5K Dami 03/11
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat90%OoHindi
RepublicanRepublican10%OoHindi
$89.6K Dami 03/11
Wisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary WinnerWisconsin Secretary of State Republican Primary Winner
Nate Pollnow81%OoHindi
Jay Schroeder10%OoHindi
$18.8K Dami 11/08
TX-21 House Election WinnerTX-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%OoHindi
Democratic Party13%OoHindi
$57.6K Dami 03/11
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty MastersonTy Masterson84%OoHindi
Philip SarneckiPhilip Sarnecki15%OoHindi
$100K Dami 4 araw pa
TX-06 House Election WinnerTX-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%OoHindi
Democratic Party8%OoHindi
$35.4K Dami 03/11
Minas Gerais Governor Election WinnerMinas Gerais Governor Election Winner
Cleitinho AzevedoCleitinho Azevedo43%OoHindi
Mateus SimõesMateus Simões24%OoHindi
$143.5K Dami 04/10
MI-03 House Election WinnerMI-03 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party89%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party10%OoHindi
$8.8K Dami 04/11
MD-04 House Election WinnerMD-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party97%OoHindi
Republican Party2%OoHindi
$45.1K Dami 03/11
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich29%OoHindi
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson29%OoHindi
$1.1M Dami 03/11
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party88%OoHindi
Democratic Party10%OoHindi
$24K Dami 03/11
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%OoHindi
Haley StevensHaley Stevens22%OoHindi
$41.2K Dami 4 araw pa
AK-AL House Election WinnerAK-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party83%OoHindi
Democratic Party16%OoHindi
$25.5K Dami 03/11
PA-07 House Election WinnerPA-07 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party77%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party24%OoHindi
$12.2K Dami 04/11
VA-04 House Election WinnerVA-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%OoHindi
Republican Party6%OoHindi
$24.6K Dami 03/11
RI-02 House Election WinnerRI-02 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party6%OoHindi
$22.2K Dami 03/11
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema88%OoHindi
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%OoHindi
$124.3K Dami 14/08
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli99%OoHindi
Pierre Chanel TutugoroPierre Chanel Tutugoro1%OoHindi
$60.7K Dami 30/06
CA-25 House Election WinnerCA-25 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party6%OoHindi
$16.7K Dami 03/11
OH-06 House Election WinnerOH-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%OoHindi
Democratic Party7%OoHindi
$58.5K Dami 03/11
How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?
363%OoHindi
430%OoHindi
$33.3K Dami 5 araw pa
SC-01 House Election WinnerSC-01 House Election Winner
Republican Party69%OoHindi
Democratic Party31%OoHindi
$51.1K Dami 03/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)97%OoHindi
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%OoHindi
$2.9M Dami 20/09
NY-08 House Election WinnerNY-08 House Election Winner
Democratic Party95%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$32.5K Dami 03/11
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)52%OoHindi
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)50%OoHindi
$628.1K Dami 03/11
Next President of Hungary?Next President of Hungary?
Botond FülöpBotond Fülöp25%OoHindi
Adrienn LaczóAdrienn Laczó22%OoHindi
$6.1K Dami 18/08
VA-09 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-09 Democratic Primary Winner
Joy PowersJoy Powers60%OoHindi
Adam MurphyAdam Murphy37%OoHindi
$8.1K Dami 5 araw pa
TX-27 House Election WinnerTX-27 House Election Winner
Republican Party88%OoHindi
Democratic Party10%OoHindi
$26.7K Dami 03/11
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican88%OoHindi
DemocratDemocrat13%OoHindi
$37.3K Dami 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong96%OoHindi
David CrowleyDavid Crowley3%OoHindi
$277.1K Dami 11/08
Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party WinnerNovgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner
United RussiaUnited Russia99%OoHindi
Communists of RussiaCommunists of Russia1%OoHindi
$6.4K Dami 20/09
Kansas Governor Democratic Primary WinnerKansas Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Cindy HolscherCindy Holscher93%OoHindi
Ethan CorsonEthan Corson8%OoHindi
$84.1K Dami 4 araw pa
Next President of Estonia?Next President of Estonia?
Ülle MadiseÜlle Madise62%OoHindi
Jonatan VseviovJonatan Vseviov15%OoHindi
$5.3K Dami 02/09
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
McKinney 16%+31%OoHindi
McKinney 8–12%20%OoHindi
$8.6K Dami 5 araw pa
NJ-03 House Election WinnerNJ-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party6%OoHindi
$25.2K Dami 03/11
FL-11 Republican Primary WinnerFL-11 Republican Primary Winner
Joe Strada64%OoHindi
Carey Baker32%OoHindi
$9.9K Dami 18/08
North Vancouver—Capilano By-Election WinnerNorth Vancouver—Capilano By-Election Winner
Braeden CaleyBraeden Caley98%OoHindi
Stephen CurranStephen Curran1%OoHindi
$4.7K Dami 31/08
TX-31 House Election WinnerTX-31 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%OoHindi
Democratic Party15%OoHindi
$32.9K Dami 03/11
AL-06 House Election WinnerAL-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%OoHindi
Democratic Party7%OoHindi
$22.3K Dami 03/11
MO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryMO-01 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Bell <4%25%OoHindi
Bush 4–8%21%OoHindi
$7.9K Dami 5 araw pa
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface 10–20%35%OoHindi
Binface 20–30%31%OoHindi
$180.3K Dami 13/08
FL-28 House Election WinnerFL-28 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%OoHindi
Democratic Party6%OoHindi
$29.3K Dami 03/11
MA-01 House Election WinnerMA-01 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party6%OoHindi
$34.1K Dami 03/11
FL-06 Republican Primary WinnerFL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Randy FineRandy Fine96%OoHindi
Dan BilzerianDan Bilzerian1%OoHindi
$213.8K Dami 18/08
GA-12 House Election WinnerGA-12 House Election Winner
Republican Party81%OoHindi
Democratic Party17%OoHindi
$25.8K Dami 03/11
TX-10 House Election WinnerTX-10 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%OoHindi
Democratic Party13%OoHindi
$26.6K Dami 03/11
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
20-2429%OoHindi
25-2928%OoHindi
$92K Dami 27/10
MI-11 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Jeremy MossJeremy Moss89%OoHindi
Aisha FarooqiAisha Farooqi9%OoHindi
$56.2K Dami 4 araw pa
SC-07 House Election WinnerSC-07 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%OoHindi
Democratic Party7%OoHindi
$20.9K Dami 03/11
2026 Cameron County Judge Election Winner2026 Cameron County Judge Election Winner
Esteban "Steve" Guerra92%OoHindi
Mauro Garza7%OoHindi
$4.6K Dami 03/11
FL-20 House Election WinnerFL-20 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party5%OoHindi
$26.8K Dami 03/11
NC-14 House Election WinnerNC-14 House Election Winner
Republican Party83%OoHindi
Democratic Party17%OoHindi
$30.4K Dami 03/11
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
2–366%OoHindi
4–533%OoHindi
$13K Dami 5 araw pa
VA-01 Democratic Primary WinnerVA-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Shannon TaylorShannon Taylor98%OoHindi
Salaam BhattiSalaam Bhatti1%OoHindi
$18.1K Dami 5 araw pa
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party91%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%OoHindi
$18.3K Dami 04/11
Bahia Governor Election WinnerBahia Governor Election Winner
Jerônimo RodriguesJerônimo Rodrigues55%OoHindi
ACM NetoACM Neto46%OoHindi
$96.4K Dami 04/10
GA-05 House Election WinnerGA-05 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party2%OoHindi
$44.5K Dami 03/11
SD-AL House Election WinnerSD-AL House Election Winner
Republican Party94%OoHindi
Democratic Party4%OoHindi
$27.6K Dami 03/11
Minnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of VictoryMinnesota Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Flanagan 15–20%25%OoHindi
Flanagan 10–15%24%OoHindi
$9.6K Dami 11/08
TX-25 House Election WinnerTX-25 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%OoHindi
Democratic Party12%OoHindi
$8.7K Dami 03/11
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%OoHindi
Republican Party7%OoHindi
$24.1K Dami 03/11
TX-03 House Election WinnerTX-03 House Election Winner
Republican Party87%OoHindi
Democratic Party11%OoHindi
$22.2K Dami 03/11
IL-01 House Election WinnerIL-01 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party4%OoHindi
$49K Dami 03/11
VA-06 House Election WinnerVA-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party91%OoHindi
Democratic Party10%OoHindi
$104.6K Dami 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei54%OoHindi
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof40%OoHindi
$392.2K Dami 24/10
Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party14%OoHindi
$3.4K Dami 03/11
TX-37 House Election WinnerTX-37 House Election Winner
Democratic Party97%OoHindi
Republican Party2%OoHindi
$33.7K Dami 03/11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of VictoryWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Margin of Victory
Hong 30%+63%OoHindi
Hong 25–30%13%OoHindi
$13.8K Dami 11/08
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
2%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$14.8K Dami 31/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton95%OoHindi
Christy DavisChristy Davis2%OoHindi
$170.2K Dami 4 araw pa
Which Senate races will be within 5%?Which Senate races will be within 5%?
Ohio (Special)76%OoHindi
Michigan75%OoHindi
$21.1K Dami 03/11
TX-36 House Election WinnerTX-36 House Election Winner
Republican Party93%OoHindi
Democratic Party8%OoHindi
$28.1K Dami 03/11
SC-03 House Election WinnerSC-03 House Election Winner
Republican Party95%OoHindi
Democratic Party6%OoHindi
$39.9K Dami 03/11
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FAQ ng mga Pamilihan ng Halalan

Bakit tumpak ang mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Kailangan nila ng 'skin in the game': ang mga tao ay naglalagay ng pera sa kanilang mga pananaw, na nag-aalis ng mababang kalidad na ingay. Mas malaki ang volume, mas maaasahan ang presyo.

Aling mga pamilihan ng halalan ang live ngayon?

US 2028, Israel (ayon sa petsa), mga lokal na halalan sa UK at EU, kasama ang mga pangunahing partido. Sundan ang aming pahina para sa mga update.

Paano ko ipapresyo ang panganib sa mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Suriin ang liquidity (lalim ng order-book), makasaysayang volatility, at petsa ng desisyon. Ang mga pamilihan na may manipis na liquidity ay madaling kapitan ng hindi epektibong pagpepresyo.

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