The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is a major, bipartisan American lobbying group that advocates for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship and has endorsed candidates in the upcoming US Congressional primaries.
This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who do not win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. For purposes of this market, a candidate will be considered to have won a primary if they finish in a position to advance to the general election, even if they are not the top vote-earner or if no primary election is held because the candidate ran unopposed.
This market will only consider the 34 candidates listed below. No subsequent endorsement, unendorsement, or withdrawal from a race will be relevant.
The candidates and races are:
Greg Stanton (Democratic, AZ-04), Abe Hamadeh (Republican, AZ-08), Juan Ciscomani (Republican, AZ-06), Ron Estes (Republican, KS-04), Tracey Mann (Republican, KS-01), Roger Marshall (Republican, KS-Sen), Derek Schmidt (Republican, KS-02), Tom Barrett (Republican, MI-07), Jack Bergman (Republican, MI-01), Bill Huizenga (Republican, MI-04), Lisa McClain (Republican, MI-09), John Moolenaar (Republican, MI-02), Hillary Scholten (Democratic, MI-03), Haley Stevens (Democratic, MI-Sen), Shri Thanedar (Democratic, MI-13), Tim Walberg (Republican, MI-05), Mark Alford (Republican, MO-04), Wesley Bell (Democratic, MO-01), Eric Burlison (Republican, MO-07), Sam Graves (Republican, MO-06), Robert Onder (Republican, MO-03), Jason Smith (Republican, MO-08), Ann Wagner (Republican, MO-02), Ben Cline (Republican, VA-06), Morgan Griffith (Republican, VA-09), Jen Kiggans (Republican, VA-02), John McGuire (Republican, VA-05), Rob Wittman (Republican, VA-01), Michael Baumgartner (Republican, WA-05), Suzan DelBene (Democratic, WA-01), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Democratic, WA-03), Kim Schrier (Democratic, WA-08), Adam Smith (Democratic, WA-09), Marilyn Strickland (Democratic, WA-10).
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying federal elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Israel
· Midterms
How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
0–1
$1.6K Volume
6%
2–3
$3.1K Volume
71%
4–5
$221 Volume
22%
6–7
$1.6K Volume
6%
8–9
$180 Volume
7%
10+
$713 Volume
1%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
It's a genuine race: 2–3 edges the field at 61%, barely ahead of 4–5 at 21%. Tight markets like this can flip on one headline.
What do traders predict for How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
Traders give 2–3 a 61% chance - essentially a toss-up. In markets this tight, the implied odds can swing on a single piece of news.
When does the How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries) market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 4 Aug 2026 (14 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries)?
Total turnover stands at $7.5K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade How many of these 34 AIPAC endorsees will lose their primaries (through August 4 primaries) on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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