Politics · Elections

MD-04 House Election Winner

$34.5K Volume
03/11/2026 00:00
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Democratic Party
$9.6K Volume
94%
Republican Party
$24.9K Volume
4%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for MD-04 House Election Winner?
Democratic Party dominates the field at 94%; the nearest challenger, Republican Party, trades at just 3%. The order book treats this as nearly decided.
What do traders predict for MD-04 House Election Winner?
Traders price Democratic Party at a 94% implied probability - about as confident as prediction markets get. Real money stands behind that number, updated live.
When does the MD-04 House Election Winner market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 3 Nov 2026 (119 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on MD-04 House Election Winner?
$34.5K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade MD-04 House Election Winner on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.

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