Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

63 active markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%YesNo
July 2294%YesNo
$1.7M Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$722.6K Volume 31/07
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei74%YesNo
No Head of State7%YesNo
$33.5M Volume 31/12
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3155%YesNo
August 1441%YesNo
$2M Volume 31/08
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
August 3146%YesNo
August 1542%YesNo
$5.3M Volume 31/08
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3134%YesNo
August 1529%YesNo
$23.6M Volume Ends today
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1515%YesNo
July 319%YesNo
$7.8M Volume 31/07
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
August 3167%YesNo
August 1556%YesNo
$687.8K Volume 31/08
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
11%
chance
Yes No
$203.5K Volume 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
14%
chance
Yes No
$722.6K Volume 31/08
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
28%
chance
Yes No
$166.9K Volume 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202738%YesNo
December 3127%YesNo
$20.2M Volume 31/12
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3133%YesNo
September 3023%YesNo
$6.9M Volume Ends today
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3133%YesNo
September 3014%YesNo
$10.8M Volume 31/08
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 2271%YesNo
July 2570%YesNo
$2.1M Volume 31/07
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 311%
August 316%
$289.8K Volume 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3114%YesNo
September 308%YesNo
$7.9M Volume Ends today
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
August 3147%YesNo
August 1534%YesNo
$657.6K Volume 31/08
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+13%YesNo
40+9%YesNo
$71.3K Volume 31/07
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3143%YesNo
July 318%YesNo
$71.1K Volume 31/07
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3025%YesNo
Pakistan23%YesNo
$69.8K Volume 30/09
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
6%
chance
Yes No
$69.7K Volume 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
54%
chance
Yes No
$722.6K Volume 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 313%
August 318%
$80K Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
24%
chance
Yes No
$723.7K Volume 30/09
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$28.6M Volume 31/12
Crude Oil all time high by...?Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 3116%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$1.9M Volume 31/12
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 314%YesNo
July 142%YesNo
$385.5K Volume 31/07
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3119%YesNo
September 3010%YesNo
$5.9M Volume Ends today
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3123%YesNo
July 317%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 31/07
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
August 3179%YesNo
July 3143%YesNo
$240.7K Volume 3 days left
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2251%YesNo
July 2449%YesNo
$1.1M Volume Ends today
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
50-7439%YesNo
75-9927%YesNo
$28.3K Volume 5 days left
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202647%YesNo
December17%YesNo
$103.2K Volume 31/12
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
4%
chance
Yes No
$203.5K Volume 30/09
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
August 3157%YesNo
August 1552%YesNo
$18.4K Volume 31/08
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 311%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$9.9M Volume Ends today
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 318%YesNo
August 312%YesNo
$837.1K Volume 31/12
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3121%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$1.7M Volume Ends today
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's UraniumDilution of Iran's Uranium35%YesNo
Iran Reconstruction FundingIran Reconstruction Funding31%YesNo
$373.8K Volume 31/12
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
18%
chance
Yes No
$11.4K Volume 31/12
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3161%YesNo
October 3158%YesNo
$1.3M Volume 31/08
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
52%
chance
Yes No
$677.8K Volume 20/08
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
July 316%
August 3117%
$8.7K Volume 31/08
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%YesNo
Mohammed bin Salman2%YesNo
$2M Volume 01/08
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 317%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$21.6M Volume Ends today
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
June 301%
December 3110%
$301.3K Volume 31/12
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2087%YesNo
20-409%YesNo
$6.1K Volume 31/07
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 311%
August 313%
$6.8K Volume 31/08
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3143%YesNo
July 3116%YesNo
$116.2K Volume 31/08
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
chance
Yes No
$51.6K Volume 30/09
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3025%YesNo
December 315%YesNo
$1.8M Volume 31/12
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 314%
$5.6K Volume 31/08
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 318%YesNo
July 211%YesNo
$47.9K Volume 31/07
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
5%
chance
Yes No
$11.6M Volume 31/12
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
July 319%YesNo
July 246%YesNo
$4.4K Volume 31/07
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
December 3135%YesNo
August 3119%YesNo
$921K Volume
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
United States12%YesNo
United Kingdom2%YesNo
$3.9K Volume 31/07
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?
July 3128%YesNo
July 2417%YesNo
$3.5K Volume 31/07
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 315%
$5.2K Volume 31/08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$17.4M Volume 31/12
Khamenei # posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?Khamenei # posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?
<539%YesNo
5-925%YesNo
$7.4K Volume 7 days left
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
34%
chance
Yes No
$94.3K Volume 31/12
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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