BTC $113,247 ▲2.31% ETH $3,847 ▲1.84% SOL $284 ▲4.12% SPX 5,847 ▼0.43% TRUMP-PARDON-HUNTER 67¢ +4 BTC-120K-EOY 43¢ −2 FED-50BP-Q3 64¢ +8 NBA-FINALS Game 7 Thunder 42¢ HAMAS-CEASEFIRE-Q3 31¢ +1 NEWSOM-2028 54¢ +13 IRAN-ISRAEL-DIRECT 18¢ +11 ETH-ETF-STAKING 71¢ +3 BTC $113,247 ▲2.31% ETH $3,847 ▲1.84% SOL $284 ▲4.12% SPX 5,847 ▼0.43% TRUMP-PARDON-HUNTER 67¢ +4 BTC-120K-EOY 43¢ −2 FED-50BP-Q3 64¢ +8 NBA-FINALS Game 7 Thunder 42¢ HAMAS-CEASEFIRE-Q3 31¢ +1 NEWSOM-2028 54¢ +13

Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

32 active markets
Middle East Iran Gaza Israel Hostages Iran–Israel Israel–Hezbollah Israel–Hamas Yemen Nuclear Deal
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
December 31
Yes 63¢No 37¢
June 30
Yes 35¢No 65¢
$110.1M Volume 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$2.3M Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
7%
chance
Yes 7¢ No 93¢
$2.3M Volume Ends today
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$717.8K Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
31%
chance
Yes 31¢ No 69¢
$2.3M Volume 30/06
Iran closes its airspace by...?
Iran closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 47¢No 53¢
May 31
Yes 38¢No 62¢
$12.9M Volume Ends today
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
What will happen before Kevin Warsh is confirmed?
Fed Rate CutFed Rate Cut
Yes 1¢No 99¢
US Confirms Aliens ExistUS Confirms Aliens Exist
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$716.4K Volume 31/10
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
June 30
Yes 52¢No 48¢
May 31
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$17.1M Volume 30/06
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
May 31
Yes 8¢No 92¢
$1.2M Volume Ends today
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
June 30
Yes 60¢No 40¢
May 31
Yes 24¢No 76¢
$282.3K Volume Ends today
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
5%
chance
Yes 5¢ No 95¢
$717.8K Volume 30/06
Iran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
Yes 64¢No 36¢
Reza Pahlavi
Yes 8¢No 92¢
$8M Volume 31/12
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$153.3K Volume Ends today
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
29%
chance
Yes 29¢ No 71¢
$150.5K Volume 31/12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
June 30
Yes 10¢No 90¢
May 31
Yes 5¢No 95¢
$42.4M Volume Ends today
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?
Oil Sanction ReliefOil Sanction Relief
Yes 15¢No 85¢
Unfreeze Iranian AssetsUnfreeze Iranian Assets
Yes 14¢No 86¢
$140.3K Volume Ends today
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
June 30
Yes 10¢No 90¢
May 31
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$1.1M Volume 30/06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
Yes 27¢No 73¢
June 30
Yes 13¢No 87¢
$13.2M Volume 31/12
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
December 31
Yes 7¢No 93¢
June 30
Yes 2¢No 98¢
$813.5K Volume 31/12
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
Yes 45¢No 55¢
June 30
Yes 18¢No 82¢
$7M Volume 31/12
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 31
Yes 13¢No 87¢
June 30
Yes 3¢No 97¢
$18M Volume 30/06
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
What will Trump say during bilateral events with Xi Jinping?
Iran
Yes 78¢No 22¢
Tariff
Yes 75¢No 25¢
$176.5K Volume Ends today
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
78%
chance
Yes 78¢ No 22¢
$2.3M Volume 31/12
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
6%
chance
Yes 6¢ No 94¢
$49.4K Volume 30/06
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
United Kingdom
Yes 11¢No 89¢
France
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$772.9K Volume Ends today
Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15? Xi meets with Iranian officials by May 15?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$138.1K Volume Ends today
Iran leadership change by...?
Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
Yes 35¢No 65¢
June 30
Yes 15¢No 85¢
$13.5M Volume 31/12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
45%
chance
Yes 45¢ No 55¢
$2.3M Volume 31/07
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$814.8K Volume Ends today
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?
May 155%
May 3139%
$29.1K Volume Ends today
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Pakistan
Yes 52¢No 48¢
No Meeting by June 30
Yes 39¢No 61¢
$28.7K Volume 30/06
Israel closes its airspace by...?
Israel closes its airspace by...?
June 30
Yes 38¢No 62¢
May 31
Yes 31¢No 69¢
$757.2K Volume Ends today
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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