Iran Prediction Markets

Iran prediction markets track critical developments: nuclear enrichment, IAEA reports, nuclear-deal negotiations, sanctions imposed or lifted, and regional events. Prices move in real time reacting to news out of Sinai, Vienna and Tehran.

These markets typically have strong liquidity around news events and longer expirations (months to a year), enabling dynamic trading.

154 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3180%YesNo
November 272%YesNo
$5M Volume 01/01
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 3163%YesNo
December 3140%YesNo
$46.7M Volume 01/01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 199%YesNo
November 299%YesNo
$43.6M Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
chance
Yes No
$424.5K Volume 01/01
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 3137%YesNo
November 3027%YesNo
$3.3M Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
11%
chance
Yes No
$280.5K Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$131.5K Volume 01/01
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 202645%YesNo
November 30, 202628%YesNo
$120.8K Volume 31/12
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202728%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
$28.6M Volume 01/07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$280.5K Volume Ends today
Crude Oil all time high by...?Crude Oil all time high by...?
March 31, 202728%YesNo
December 3114%YesNo
$5.3M Volume 01/01
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei86%YesNo
No Head of State4%YesNo
$40.7M Volume 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 318%YesNo
April 301%YesNo
$29.8M Volume 01/01
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 3127%YesNo
November 3021%YesNo
$3.6M Volume Ends today
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202727%YesNo
December 31, 202612%YesNo
$2.4M Volume 01/01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
6%
chance
Yes No
$280.5K Volume 01/12
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3112%YesNo
November 308%YesNo
$20.9M Volume 01/01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3112%YesNo
November 307%YesNo
$17.9M Volume 01/01
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3134%YesNo
November 3024%YesNo
$10.9M Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
5%
chance
Yes No
$44.9K Volume 01/01
US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?
November 3028%YesNo
December 3128%YesNo
$466.3K Volume 01/01
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
December 3132%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$536.6K Volume 31/12
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by...?
November 3038%YesNo
October 314%YesNo
$512.5K Volume 30/11
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's UraniumDilution of Iran's Uranium16%YesNo
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium15%YesNo
$1.5M Volume 01/01
Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)
December 3131%YesNo
November 3017%YesNo
$138K Volume 01/01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 316%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$18.5M Volume 01/01
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$19.3K Volume 01/01
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
June 301%YesNo
$22.3M Volume 01/01
US imposes new sanctions on China by...?US imposes new sanctions on China by...?
October 31, 202692%
November 3029%
$17.4K Volume 01/12
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
January 31, 202770%YesNo
December 31, 202655%YesNo
$36.3K Volume 01/02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 317%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$77.2M Volume 01/01
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
36%
chance
Yes No
$21.9K Volume 01/01
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
12%
chance
Yes No
$313K Volume 01/01
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate76%YesNo
No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate22%YesNo
$239.4K Volume Ends today
Saudi airspace closed by...?Saudi airspace closed by...?
December 3113%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$504.4K Volume 01/01
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3155%YesNo
Qatar16%YesNo
$9.3K Volume 31/12
Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?Dem sweep & US-Iran ceasefire through 2027?
Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken71%YesNo
No Dem sweep; Ceasefire broken24%YesNo
$9.5K Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
October 299%YesNo
October 399%YesNo
$7.8K Volume Ends today
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
$7.5K Volume 01/01
Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?
September 3025%YesNo
December 315%YesNo
$2M Volume 01/01
Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends? Iran blockade lifted before US x Iran ceasefire ends?
1%
chance
Yes No
$5.3K Volume 01/07
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
3%
chance
Yes No
$4.8K Volume 01/01
Houthis enter Aden by...?Houthis enter Aden by...?
December 3119%YesNo
November 309%YesNo
$749.3K Volume 01/01
Khamenei # posts October 27 - November 3, 2026?Khamenei # posts October 27 - November 3, 2026?
<599%YesNo
10-1415%YesNo
$6.7K Volume Ends today
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Kazem GharibabadiKazem Gharibabadi42%YesNo
Jared KushnerJared Kushner41%YesNo
$4.5K Volume 01/01
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3139%YesNo
November 3030%YesNo
$689.4K Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
November 3026%YesNo
October 312%YesNo
$437.2K Volume 01/12
Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?Will Iran target Saudi Arabia by...?
December 3149%YesNo
November 3036%YesNo
$3.8K Volume 01/01
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Iran Markets FAQ

What Iran markets exist on Polymarket?

Nuclear markets (will Iran reach 90% enrichment?), sanctions (will sanction X be lifted by date Y?), diplomacy (will a deal be signed?), and military conflict markets.

What moves Iran market prices?

Probabilities come from live order-book depth. IAEA reports, statements from Tehran or Washington, and major media coverage can move prices within minutes.

Can I trade during regional escalations?

Yes. Polymarket stays live with notably higher volume during tensions. Trading geopolitical markets requires tight risk management.

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