伊朗预测市场

伊朗预测市场跟踪关键发展：核浓缩、国际原子能机构报告、核协议谈判、制裁的施加或解除，以及地区事件。价格实时反应来自西奈、维也纳和德黑兰的新闻。

这些市场通常在新闻事件周围具有强劲的流动性和较长的到期时间（几个月到一年），使得动态交易成为可能。

59 活跃市场
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%是否
July 2299%是否
$3M 成交量 31/08
Iran leader end of 2026?Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei74%是否
No Head of State6%是否
$34.2M 成交量 31/12
7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常? 7月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?
1%
概率
是 否
$514.3K 成交量 31/07
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3150%是否
August 1434%是否
$2.4M 成交量 31/08
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 3136%是否
September 3025%是否
$7.3M 成交量 今日截止
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
August 3157%是否
August 1551%是否
$5.6M 成交量 31/08
Israel closes its airspace by...?Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 3144%是否
August 1540%是否
$23.9M 成交量 今日截止
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
30%
概率
是 否
$193K 成交量 31/12
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
August 3162%是否
August 1540%是否
$907.4K 成交量 31/08
8月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常? 8月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?
13%
概率
是 否
$514.3K 成交量 31/08
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202739%是否
December 3126%是否
$20.3M 成交量 31/12
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 1518%是否
July 319%是否
$7.9M 成交量 31/07
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
August 3146%是否
August 1528%是否
$736.5K 成交量 31/08
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3114%是否
September 307%是否
$8M 成交量 今日截止
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 311%
August 315%
$70.2K 成交量 31/08
伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗? 伊朗政权会在2027年前垮台吗?
10%
概率
是 否
$112.3K 成交量 31/12
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
7%
概率
是 否
$197.6K 成交量 31/12
12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常? 12月31日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?
50%
概率
是 否
$514.3K 成交量 31/12
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3139%是否
July 317%是否
$51.6K 成交量 31/07
伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗? 伊朗政权会在9月30日前垮台吗?
4%
概率
是 否
$112.3K 成交量 30/09
WTI原油在___前创历史新高?WTI原油在___前创历史新高?
December 3119%是否
September 3010%是否
$2M 成交量 31/12
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 312%
August 316%
$351K 成交量 31/08
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3131%是否
September 3014%是否
$10.8M 成交量 31/08
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by...?
August 3173%是否
July 3152%是否
$278.8K 成交量 还剩 2 天
Iran invades Kuwait by...?Iran invades Kuwait by...?
July 312%
August 316%
$351K 成交量 31/08
7月20日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡?7月20日当周有多少船只通过霍尔木兹海峡?
50-7447%是否
<5031%是否
$24.1K 成交量 还剩 4 天
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
July 3112%
August 3125%
$32.9K 成交量 31/08
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3027%是否
瑞士23%是否
$20.6K 成交量 30/09
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
51%
概率
是 否
$702.6K 成交量 20/08
US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 3124%是否
July 318%是否
$1.1M 成交量 31/07
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by...?
July 3165%是否
July 2417%是否
$42.8K 成交量 31/07
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?
July 318%是否
July 142%是否
$403.5K 成交量 31/07
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?
July 311%是否
June 301%是否
$10M 成交量 今日截止
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%是否
October 317%是否
$17.4M 成交量 31/12
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%是否
September 307%是否
$28.6M 成交量 31/12
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+12%是否
40+7%是否
$10.6K 成交量 31/07
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026No Return to Normal Traffic in 202651%是否
December17%是否
$117.9K 成交量 31/12
European military action against Iran by...?European military action against Iran by...?
July 313%
August 318%
$91.8K 成交量 31/08
9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常? 9月30日前霍尔木兹海峡航运是否恢复正常?
22%
概率
是 否
$516.8K 成交量 30/09
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3120%是否
September 309%是否
$6M 成交量 今日截止
Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa2%是否
Mohammed bin Salman2%是否
$2M 成交量 01/08
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
July 3116%是否
July 211%是否
$60.6K 成交量 31/07
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
August 3142%是否
July 3111%是否
$128.4K 成交量 31/08
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 3161%是否
October 3156%是否
$1.3M 成交量 31/08
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
July 3114%是否
July 242%是否
$6.4K 成交量 31/07
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of July?
0-2089%是否
20-406%是否
$6.4K 成交量 31/07
US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30? US announces withdrawal from Al Udeid Air Base by Sep 30?
3%
概率
是 否
$59.8K 成交量 30/09
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3129%是否
October 3117%是否
$201.7K 成交量 31/12
Houthis successfully target shipping by...?Houthis successfully target shipping by...?
August 3183%是否
August 1554%是否
$113.6K 成交量 31/08
Houthis successfully target shipping on...?Houthis successfully target shipping on...?
August 2613%是否
August 612%是否
$5K 成交量 31/08
Iran Nuke before 2027? Iran Nuke before 2027?
6%
概率
是 否
$4.4K 成交量 31/12
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's UraniumDilution of Iran's Uranium31%是否
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)29%是否
$378.2K 成交量 31/12
伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩? 伊朗是否在7月31日前同意停止铀浓缩?
1%
概率
是 否
$7.2K 成交量 31/07
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by...?
July 3146%是否
July 2413%是否
$3.4K 成交量 31/07
US charges Hormuz fees by...?US charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 318%是否
August 312%是否
$848.7K 成交量 31/12
Khamenei # posts July 17 - July 24, 2026?Khamenei # posts July 17 - July 24, 2026?
5-967%是否
10-1431%是否
$5.1K 成交量 今日截止
伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩? 伊朗是否在12月31日前同意停止铀浓缩?
22%
概率
是 否
$7.2K 成交量 31/12
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
美国11%是否
United Kingdom2%是否
$2.9K 成交量 31/07
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
June 301%
December 318%
$304.3K 成交量 31/12
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伊朗市场常见问题

Polymarket上有哪些伊朗市场？

核市场（伊朗会达到90%的浓缩吗？）、制裁（制裁X会在日期Y之前解除吗？）、外交（会签署协议吗？）和军事冲突市场。

是什么影响伊朗市场价格？

概率来自实时订单簿深度。国际原子能机构报告、德黑兰或华盛顿的声明，以及主要媒体报道可以在几分钟内影响价格。

在地区升级期间我可以交易吗？

可以。Polymarket在紧张局势期间保持活跃，交易量显著增加。交易地缘政治市场需要严格的风险管理。

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