This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Past
<50
$21.4K Volume
26%
50-74
$1.9K Volume
39%
75-99
$2.1K Volume
29%
100-124
$2K Volume
18%
125+
$1.8K Volume
9%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
The field is wide open: 50-74 tops it at just 35%, with 75-99 close behind at 26%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
Right now the market's best guess is 50-74 at 35% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20 market resolve?
The market runs until 26 Jul 2026 (5 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20?
Traders have put $27.6K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 20 on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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