This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
July 31
$2.5K Volume
2%
August 31
$2.7K Volume
6%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by?
The field is wide open: August 31 tops it at just 5%, with July 31 close behind at 2%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Right now the market's best guess is August 31 at 5% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (41 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Total turnover stands at $5.2K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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