This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
--
July 15
$130.5K Volume
17%
July 31
$55.2K Volume
27%
August 31
$48K Volume
42%
Resolved 1
June 30
$115.1K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Iran full airspace closure by?
The field is wide open: August 31 tops it at just 42%, with July 31 close behind at 26%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Iran full airspace closure by?
Right now the market's best guess is August 31 at 42% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Iran full airspace closure by market resolve?
The market runs until 31 Aug 2026 (61 days left), then settles according to Polymarket's published resolution rules for this event.
How much money is trading on Iran full airspace closure by?
Total turnover stands at $348.8K. Volume shows conviction: these odds are backed by actual positions, not polls.
How can I trade Iran full airspace closure by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.
Similar Markets
July 3165%YesNo
July 1735%YesNo
Switzerland28%YesNo
Qatar28%YesNo
December 3118%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
July 3111%YesNo
July 72%YesNo
Abbas Araghchi3%YesNo
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf2%YesNo
December 3131%YesNo
July 3114%YesNo
