Israel–Hamas War Prediction Markets

Israel–Hamas is one of the most actively-traded clusters since October 7th. Traders price hostage releases, Qatar/Egypt-mediated ceasefires, IDF progress in Rafah, repeat operations in northern Gaza, and the big question: who governs Gaza after the war.

Volume jumps after every Israeli war-cabinet announcement, Doha negotiation round, rocket fire on the Gaza envelope or central Israel, and Biden/Trump statements. Highly volatile, news-reactive markets.

19 active markets
Middle East Iran Gaza Israel Hostages Iran–Israel Israel–Hezbollah Israel–Lebanon Israel–Hamas Yemen Nuclear Deal
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
May 15
Yes 49¢No 51¢
May 5
Yes 33¢No 67¢
$4.4M Volume 5 days left
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
June 30
Yes 44¢No 56¢
May 31
Yes 26¢No 74¢
$53.5M Volume 31/05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
June 30
Yes 56¢No 44¢
May 31
Yes 33¢No 67¢
$34.8M Volume 30/06
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
June 30
Yes 15¢No 85¢
May 31
Yes 13¢No 87¢
$34.5M Volume Ends today
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by...?
April 212%
April 2617%
$1.5M Volume
Who will meet with Iran by April 30?
Steve Witkoff
Yes 16¢No 84¢
Jared Kushner
Yes 15¢No 85¢
$1.7M Volume 5 days left
Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?
May 31
Yes 52¢No 48¢
April 30
Yes 12¢No 88¢
$6.7M Volume 5 days left
Next US x Iran diplomatic meeting on...?
No Meeting before May 11
Yes 59¢No 41¢
April 29
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$606.6K Volume 10/05
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Pakistan
Yes 73¢No 27¢
No Meeting by June 30
Yes 19¢No 81¢
$202.9K Volume 30/06
What Iranian demands will Trump agree to in April?
Oil Sanction Relief
Yes 7¢No 93¢
Unfreeze Iranian Assets
Yes 4¢No 96¢
$2.9M Volume 5 days left
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
Yes 28¢No 72¢
May 31
Yes 9¢No 91¢
$7.5M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$285K Volume 5 days left
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 31
Yes 40¢No 60¢
June 30
Yes 25¢No 75¢
$4.4M Volume 31/12
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
4%
chance
Yes 4¢ No 96¢
$130.5K Volume 5 days left
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
Bahrain
Yes 22¢No 78¢
Qatar
Yes 18¢No 82¢
$71.1K Volume 5 days left
Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Steve Witkoff
Yes 88¢No 12¢
Jared Kushner
Yes 80¢No 20¢
$974.7K Volume 30/06
Will Trump visit Pakistan by...?
May 3114%
April 302%
$363.3K Volume 31/05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
5%
chance
Yes 5¢ No 95¢
$285K Volume 31/05
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
26%
chance
Yes 26¢ No 74¢
$285K Volume 31/12
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Israel–Hamas Markets FAQ

What Israel–Hamas markets are open?

Hostage-release markets (group or individual), full/partial ceasefire markets, Sinwar/Haniyeh status markets, Rafah-operation markets, and post-war Gaza-governance markets.

What moves market prices?

Doha and Cairo negotiation rounds (Witkoff, mediators, Bourita), political statements (Netanyahu, Gantz, Smotrich), Hamas Telegram posts, and rocket fire on the Gaza envelope and central Israel.

Difference between 'Israel–Hamas' and 'Gaza' markets?

'Israel–Hamas' markets focus on direct war and negotiations. 'Gaza' markets are broader, including humanitarian aid, Rafah, and civil governance. Some overlap, distinct flow.