Israel–Hamas War Prediction Markets

Israel–Hamas is one of the most actively-traded clusters since October 7th. Traders price hostage releases, Qatar/Egypt-mediated ceasefires, IDF progress in Rafah, repeat operations in northern Gaza, and the big question: who governs Gaza after the war.

Volume jumps after every Israeli war-cabinet announcement, Doha negotiation round, rocket fire on the Gaza envelope or central Israel, and Biden/Trump statements. Highly volatile, news-reactive markets.

24 active markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2399%YesNo
July 2299%YesNo
$5.3M Volume 31/08
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
August 3149%YesNo
August 1545%YesNo
$6.1M Volume 31/08
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$408.7K Volume 6 days left
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 3154%YesNo
August 1436%YesNo
$2.7M Volume 31/08
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
August 3164%YesNo
August 1544%YesNo
$1.1M Volume 31/08
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 3130%YesNo
September 3014%YesNo
$10.9M Volume 31/08
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 3141%YesNo
August 1527%YesNo
$46.7K Volume 7 days left
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
52%
chance
Yes No
$408.2K Volume 31/12
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 3034%YesNo
Switzerland25%YesNo
$39.5K Volume 30/09
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 2370%YesNo
July 2561%YesNo
$2.2M Volume 7 days left
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 3137%YesNo
October 3123%YesNo
$5.6M Volume 31/12
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 3120%
$35.1K Volume 31/08
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
December 3114%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$17.4M Volume 31/12
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 313%
August 316%
$28.1K Volume 31/08
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 3114%YesNo
September 307%YesNo
$28.7M Volume 31/12
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 3127%YesNo
October 3113%YesNo
$894.5K Volume 31/12
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 3112%YesNo
September 306%YesNo
$8M Volume Ends today
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
1%
chance
Yes No
$6.7K Volume 6 days left
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
July 2853%YesNo
July 2951%YesNo
$1.1M Volume Ends today
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
July 312%
August 319%
$74.5K Volume 31/08
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Somaliland25%YesNo
Syria16%YesNo
$3.6K Volume 31/12
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by August 31?
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani49%YesNo
Rafael Grossi47%YesNo
$56.9K Volume 31/08
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
36%
chance
Yes No
$2.7K Volume 31/12
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
36%
chance
Yes No
$2.6K Volume 31/12
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Israel–Hamas Markets FAQ

What Israel–Hamas markets are open?

Hostage-release markets (group or individual), full/partial ceasefire markets, Sinwar/Haniyeh status markets, Rafah-operation markets, and post-war Gaza-governance markets.

What moves market prices?

Doha and Cairo negotiation rounds (Witkoff, mediators, Bourita), political statements (Netanyahu, Gantz, Smotrich), Hamas Telegram posts, and rocket fire on the Gaza envelope and central Israel.

Difference between 'Israel–Hamas' and 'Gaza' markets?

'Israel–Hamas' markets focus on direct war and negotiations. 'Gaza' markets are broader, including humanitarian aid, Rafah, and civil governance. Some overlap, distinct flow.

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