This market will resolve to "Yes" if the King of Bahrain, Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, ceases to be the de facto leader of Bahrain at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Bahrain if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Bahrain within this market's timeframe.
An announcement of Khalifa's resignation or abdication will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Geopolitics
· Regional Spillover
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by...?
December 31
$106.6K Volume
10%
Resolved 1
June 30
$194.9K Volume
No
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by?
Yes is the outsider here at 10%, while No trades at 91%. Longshot prices like this can move sharply when new information lands.
What do traders predict for Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by?
Right now the market's best guess is Yes at 10% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by market resolve?
Mark 31 Dec 2026 (162 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by?
$301.6K in total volume has traded here. Deeper markets like this tend to price events more sharply.
How can I trade Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by on Polymarket?
Follow this page for live prices; trading happens on Polymarket itself. Start small - implied odds move, and so can your position's value.
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