Iran-Israel Conflict Prediction Markets

Iran-Israel is among the most active prediction-market clusters on Polymarket. Traders price an Israeli strike on Iranian enrichment sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan), Iranian ballistic retaliation ("True Promise" series), a return to the nuclear deal, and the cascading regional response via Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Volume spikes after every Khamenei statement, Iranian missile test, or Israeli war-cabinet decision. Highly volatile markets with double-digit price swings within hours. Watch Trump-Netanyahu statements and US carrier-group movements in the Gulf.

46 active markets
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 3194%YesNo
November 290%YesNo
$5.3M Volume 01/01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
November 199%YesNo
November 299%YesNo
$44M Volume 31/12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
chance
Yes No
$270.5K Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
5%
chance
Yes No
$237.8K Volume 01/01
Iran leadership change by...?Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 202728%YesNo
December 3113%YesNo
$28.8M Volume 01/07
Iran full airspace closure by...?Iran full airspace closure by...?
December 3137%YesNo
November 3032%YesNo
$10.9M Volume 01/01
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
December 3134%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$556K Volume 31/12
Iran coup attempt by...?Iran coup attempt by...?
December 31, 202727%YesNo
December 31, 202611%YesNo
$2.4M Volume 01/01
Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?Will Iran damage undersea internet cables by...?
October 312%
December 3121%
$87.9K Volume 01/01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 317%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$77.2M Volume 01/01
Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?Where will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place...?
No Meeting by December 3154%YesNo
Qatar13%YesNo
$8.1K Volume 31/12
Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?Khamenei # posts November 3 - November 10, 2026?
<584%YesNo
5-97%YesNo
$17.5K Volume 7 days left
Israel military action against Lebanon on...?Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
October 299%YesNo
October 399%YesNo
$6.5K Volume Ends today
Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
Jared KushnerJared Kushner44%YesNo
Abbas AraghchiAbbas Araghchi44%YesNo
$5.7K Volume 01/01
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?
December 3113%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$7.6M Volume 01/01
Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?Major airlines suspend Ben Gurion flights by...?
January 31, 202771%YesNo
December 31, 202659%YesNo
$37.9K Volume 01/02
Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?Khamenei # posts October 30 - November 6, 2026?
<567%YesNo
5-920%YesNo
$17.5K Volume 3 days left
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 3141%YesNo
November 3032%YesNo
$691K Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028? Will the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
29%
chance
Yes No
$237.8K Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Beirut by...?Israel military action against Beirut by...?
November 3024%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$439.6K Volume 01/12
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
December 3113%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$513.8K Volume 01/01
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027? Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30, 2027?
20%
chance
Yes No
$237.8K Volume 01/07
Khamenei # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?Khamenei # posts November 6 - November 13, 2026?
<583%YesNo
5-912%YesNo
$17.5K Volume 13/11
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
475%YesNo
515%YesNo
$789 Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
November 3029%YesNo
October 317%YesNo
$25.9K Volume 01/12
Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out? Israel x Iran ceasefire ends before Netanyahu out?
66%
chance
Yes No
$5.4K Volume 01/07
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31, 202739%YesNo
June 30, 202722%YesNo
$8.6M Volume 01/01
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
March 311%YesNo
$263 Volume 01/01
Houthi military action against Israel by...?Houthi military action against Israel by...?
December 3116%YesNo
August 319%YesNo
$198 Volume 31/12
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 311%YesNo
September 301%YesNo
$215K Volume 01/01
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
2%
chance
Yes No
$74 Volume 01/01
Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?
March 3113%YesNo
December 317%YesNo
$1.4M Volume 01/04
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 3112%YesNo
July 312%YesNo
$101.7K Volume 01/01
Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 318%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$60K Volume 01/01
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
19%
chance
Yes No
$56.3K Volume 01/01
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? Will Iran legalize gay marriage?
2%
chance
Yes No
$84.7K Volume 01/01
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?
12%
chance
Yes No
$5 Volume 01/01
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 315%YesNo
May 311%YesNo
$629.4K Volume 01/01
Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?Israel ground operation in Iran confirmed by...?
December 3114%YesNo
July 311%YesNo
$1.8M Volume 01/01
Israel military action against Yemen by...?Israel military action against Yemen by...?
December 3118%YesNo
October 313%YesNo
$334K Volume 31/12
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 316%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$206.9K Volume 01/01
Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?Trump meets with Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei by...?
December 313%YesNo
June 151%YesNo
$201.5K Volume 01/01
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
3%
chance
Yes No
$195.8K Volume 01/01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?Will Mojtaba Khamenei leave Iran by...?
December 314%YesNo
July 241%YesNo
$119.7K Volume 01/01
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 315%YesNo
October 311%YesNo
$82.7K Volume 01/01
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
October 315%
November 3027%
$777 Volume 01/12
Load more on Polymarket →

Iran-Israel Markets FAQ

What Iran-Israel markets are open?

Israeli strike on nuclear sites, Iranian retaliation (ballistic, drones, Hezbollah proxy), JCPOA-revival markets, and new US-sanction markets.

What moves Iran-Israel market prices?

Khamenei and Pezeshkian statements, Iranian missile and drone tests, IAEA reports on 90%-enrichment, Mossad chief visits to Washington, and Netanyahu-Trump meetings.

How do I start trading?

Open a Polymarket account via our official referral link, deposit USDC on Polygon, and search "Iran" or "Israel" in quick-search. These markets require real-time news monitoring.

Start Polymarket Training For Free
Trade prediction markets with virtual money. Real prices, zero risk. Compete on the leaderboard.
$1K
Virtual Cash
500+
Markets
$0
Real Risk
Learn more
Real prices Zero risk Leaderboard