Iran–Israel Conflict Prediction Markets

Iran–Israel is among the most active prediction-market clusters on Polymarket. Traders price an Israeli strike on Iranian enrichment sites (Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan), Iranian ballistic retaliation ("True Promise" series), a return to the nuclear deal, and the cascading regional response via Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Volume spikes after every Khamenei statement, Iranian missile test, or Israeli war-cabinet decision. Highly volatile markets with double-digit price swings within hours. Watch Trump–Netanyahu statements and US carrier-group movements in the Gulf.

7 active markets
Middle East Iran Gaza Israel Hostages Iran–Israel Israel–Hezbollah Israel–Lebanon Israel–Hamas Yemen Nuclear Deal
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
1%
chance
Yes 1¢ No 99¢
$1.7M Volume 5 days left
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
4%
chance
Yes 4¢ No 96¢
$1.7M Volume 31/05
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
June 30
Yes 15¢No 85¢
May 31
Yes 13¢No 87¢
$34.5M Volume Ends today
Iran leadership change by...?
December 31
Yes 39¢No 61¢
June 30
Yes 21¢No 79¢
$10.7M Volume 31/12
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
Pakistan
Yes 73¢No 27¢
No Meeting by June 30
Yes 19¢No 81¢
$202.9K Volume 30/06
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
9%
chance
Yes 9¢ No 91¢
$1.7M Volume 30/06
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
23%
chance
Yes 23¢ No 77¢
$1.7M Volume 31/12
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Iran–Israel Markets FAQ

What Iran–Israel markets are open?

Israeli strike on nuclear sites, Iranian retaliation (ballistic, drones, Hezbollah proxy), JCPOA-revival markets, and new US-sanction markets.

What moves Iran–Israel market prices?

Khamenei and Pezeshkian statements, Iranian missile and drone tests, IAEA reports on 90%-enrichment, Mossad chief visits to Washington, and Netanyahu–Trump meetings.

How do I start trading?

Open a Polymarket account via our official referral link, deposit USDC on Polygon, and search "Iran" or "Israel" in quick-search. These markets require real-time news monitoring.