This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
July 31
$4.3K Volume
1%
August 31
$2.2K Volume
3%
Odds & FAQ
What are the current odds for Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Even the leader is cheap - August 31 trades at 3%, July 31 at 1%. A crowded, uncertain field where odds move constantly.
What do traders predict for Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by?
No strong consensus yet: August 31 tops the implied probabilities at just 3%. Watch how the money moves as the event approaches.
When does the Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by market resolve?
Mark 31 Aug 2026 (41 days left): that's when this market is due to resolve, following Polymarket's published criteria once the result is verified.
How much money is trading on Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by?
Traders have put $6.4K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by on Polymarket?
Track the live odds on this page, then open the market on Polymarket to take a position. Trade carefully - only stake what you can afford to lose.
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