Iran · Yemen

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

$4.8K Volume
31/08/2026 23:59
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Past
Aug 31
July 17
$1.5K Volume
12%
July 31
$1.2K Volume
18%
August 31
$2.2K Volume
28%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.

Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.

Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.

Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.

Odds & FAQ

What are the current odds for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
The field is wide open: August 31 tops it at just 25%, with July 31 close behind at 17%. Plenty of outcomes still carry real probability.
What do traders predict for Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Right now the market's best guess is August 31 at 25% - a lead, but a fragile one in a wide-open field backed by real trading.
When does the Houthis successfully target shipping by market resolve?
Resolution is scheduled for 31 Aug 2026 (54 days left). Once the outcome is confirmed, the market settles under Polymarket's published criteria.
How much money is trading on Houthis successfully target shipping by?
Traders have put $4.8K through this market so far - a solid gauge of how much real money backs these odds.
How can I trade Houthis successfully target shipping by on Polymarket?
You can watch the odds move here in real time and trade the market directly on Polymarket. As always, prediction trading carries real risk.

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