Mercados de Previsão de Eleições

Os mercados de eleições são o núcleo do Polymarket — eleições presidenciais dos EUA, primárias partidárias, corridas para o congresso e qualquer voto de uma grande democracia. Os mercados de eleições dos EUA de 2024 registraram bilhões em volume.

A precificação combina pesquisas, dados de financiamento partidário, indicadores econômicos e relatórios — tudo destilado em um único preço. Um terreno rico para negociação tanto para analistas quanto para investidores orientados por opiniões.

78 mercados ativos
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%SimNão
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%SimNão
$668.3M Volume 07/11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%SimNão
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SimNão
$1.25B Volume 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%SimNão
July 2295%SimNão
$1.7M Volume 31/08
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance42%SimNão
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%SimNão
$677.6M Volume 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%SimNão
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro26%SimNão
$114.4M Volume 04/10
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%SimNão
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%SimNão
$115.5M Volume 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot51%SimNão
Benjamin Netanyahu38%SimNão
$28.9M Volume 31/12
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed79%SimNão
Haley Stevens22%SimNão
$1.1M Volume 04/08
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%SimNão
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%SimNão
$15.8M Volume 20/09
Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?Netanyahu fora do cargo até...?
December 3142%SimNão
July 311%SimNão
$60.3K Volume 31/12
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%SimNão
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%SimNão
$2.7M Volume 30/06
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%SimNão
Jared Golden1%SimNão
$807.1K Volume 6 dias restantes
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone70%SimNão
Ralph NormanRalph Norman17%SimNão
$285.8K Volume 11/08
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3185%SimNão
September 3083%SimNão
$28K Volume
Qual partido vencerá a Câmara dos Representantes em 2026?Qual partido vencerá a Câmara dos Representantes em 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%SimNão
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%SimNão
$24.2K Volume 03/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
38%
chance
Sim Não
$470.7K Volume 03/01
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud58%SimNão
YasharYashar41%SimNão
$148.1K Volume 27/10
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%24%SimNão
Farage 70–80%23%SimNão
$78K Volume 30/06
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface59%SimNão
John StevensJohn Stevens14%SimNão
$204.9K Volume 30/06
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson78%SimNão
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%SimNão
$3.3M Volume 13/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds96%SimNão
James Fishback3%SimNão
$2.1M Volume 18/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds96%SimNão
James Fishback3%SimNão
$2.1M Volume 18/08
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%SimNão
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom13%SimNão
$889.2K Volume 31/12
New Zealand legislative election winner?New Zealand legislative election winner?
Labour PartyLabour Party65%SimNão
National PartyNational Party37%SimNão
$48.8K Volume 07/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei48%SimNão
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof42%SimNão
$357K Volume 24/10
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%SimNão
R Senate, D House41%SimNão
$8.8M Volume 03/11
TN-08 House Election WinnerTN-08 House Election Winner
Republican Party92%SimNão
Democratic Party7%SimNão
$29.4K Volume 03/11
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke39%SimNão
CDUCDU29%SimNão
$3M Volume 20/09
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig98%SimNão
Sian AstleySian Astley1%SimNão
$333.8K Volume 30/07
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)57%SimNão
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)44%SimNão
$611.1K Volume 03/11
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro80%SimNão
Renan SantosRenan Santos12%SimNão
$4.2M Volume 04/10
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%SimNão
RepublicanRepublican32%SimNão
$1M Volume 03/11
Qual partido vencerá o Senado em 2026?Qual partido vencerá o Senado em 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%SimNão
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%SimNão
$3.3M Volume 03/11
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%SimNão
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile11%SimNão
$87.2K Volume 14/08
South Ossetia Presidential Election WinnerSouth Ossetia Presidential Election Winner
Marat KambolovMarat Kambolov95%SimNão
Oleg KozaevOleg Kozaev2%SimNão
$7.3K Volume 18/09
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty Masterson83%SimNão
Philip Sarnecki15%SimNão
$75K Volume 04/08
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ73%SimNão
CAQCAQ15%SimNão
$690.1K Volume 05/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos64%SimNão
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%SimNão
$463.7K Volume 04/10
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 15–20%46%SimNão
Feely 10–15%45%SimNão
$15.9K Volume 04/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Haley Stevens52%SimNão
Abdul El-Sayed43%SimNão
$6.1K Volume 04/08
Likud Party Primary WinnerLikud Party Primary Winner
Amir OhanaAmir Ohana28%SimNão
No Primary by Knesset Election26%SimNão
$6K Volume 26/10
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori Bush54%SimNão
Wesley Bell47%SimNão
$75.7K Volume 04/08
NC-11 House Election WinnerNC-11 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party62%SimNão
Republican PartyRepublican Party39%SimNão
$8K Volume 04/11
TX-21 House Election WinnerTX-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party89%SimNão
Democratic Party11%SimNão
$49.6K Volume 03/11
Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party WinnerCook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party Winner
Cook Islands PartyCook Islands Party89%SimNão
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party7%SimNão
$39.2K Volume 12/08
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback <10%71%SimNão
Fishback 15–20%11%SimNão
$23.6K Volume 18/08
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
97%
chance
Sim Não
$121.1K Volume 15/08
Vermont Governor Election WinnerVermont Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican83%SimNão
DemocratDemocrat18%SimNão
$32.4K Volume 03/11
Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?
Thorsten FreiThorsten Frei83%SimNão
Carsten LinnemannCarsten Linnemann8%SimNão
$4.9K Volume 29/07
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong77%SimNão
Mandela Barnes12%SimNão
$201.5K Volume 11/08
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Nebraska Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican71%SimNão
IndependentIndependent30%SimNão
$167.9K Volume 03/11
Ottawa Mayoral Election WinnerOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark SutcliffeMark Sutcliffe56%SimNão
Alex LawsonAlex Lawson24%SimNão
$45K Volume 26/10
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3015%
$94.6K Volume 30/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%36%SimNão
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%28%SimNão
$287.4K Volume 04/10
Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican Primary WinnerArizona Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican Primary Winner
Kimberly Yee97%SimNão
Tom Horne2%SimNão
$12.6K Volume Encerra hoje
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Pete FryPete Fry27%SimNão
Ken SimKen Sim24%SimNão
$131.4K Volume 17/10
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SimNão
Democratic Party6%SimNão
$33.4K Volume 03/11
How many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?How many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
5541%SimNão
5038%SimNão
$5.7K Volume 01/01
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
AS37%SimNão
LPV34%SimNão
$150.9K Volume 03/10
NY-21 House Election WinnerNY-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party78%SimNão
Democratic Party21%SimNão
$46.5K Volume 03/11
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%41%SimNão
Binface 10–20%31%SimNão
$114.3K Volume 30/06
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH62%SimNão
BNBN34%SimNão
$3.3K Volume 01/08
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich35%SimNão
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson30%SimNão
$1.1M Volume 03/11
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen86%SimNão
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe42%SimNão
$71.6K Volume 30/04
AZ-04 House Election WinnerAZ-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party87%SimNão
Republican Party14%SimNão
$23.3K Volume 03/11
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?Will Netanyahu be pardoned by...?
December 3111%
June 301%
$476.7K Volume 31/12
IN-05 House Election WinnerIN-05 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%SimNão
Democratic Party15%SimNão
$24.2K Volume 03/11
AZ-06 House Election WinnerAZ-06 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party78%SimNão
Republican PartyRepublican Party18%SimNão
$5.5K Volume 04/11
Next Premier of QuebecNext Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre PlamondonPaul St-Pierre Plamondon70%SimNão
Christine FréchetteChristine Fréchette16%SimNão
$67.7K Volume 05/10
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%SimNão
Democratic Party13%SimNão
$34.4K Volume 03/11
WA-09 House Election WinnerWA-09 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SimNão
Republican Party6%SimNão
$15.2K Volume 03/11
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli96%SimNão
Sonia BackèsSonia Backès1%SimNão
$54.5K Volume 30/06
Arizona State Treasurer Republican Primary WinnerArizona State Treasurer Republican Primary Winner
Elijah Norton99%SimNão
Katherine Haley4%SimNão
$7.4K Volume Encerra hoje
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)96%SimNão
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)3%SimNão
$1.2M Volume 13/09
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Lisa Demuth52%SimNão
Mike Lindell42%SimNão
$451.3K Volume 11/08
Guam Governor Republican Primary WinnerGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner
Vicente Ada71%SimNão
Frank F. Blas Jr.29%SimNão
$42.1K Volume 01/08
Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Bakir IzetbegovićBakir Izetbegović52%SimNão
Denis BećirovićDenis Bećirović49%SimNão
$34.8K Volume 04/10
CA-28 House Election WinnerCA-28 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SimNão
Republican Party6%SimNão
$109.9K Volume 03/11
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FAQ sobre Mercados de Eleições

Por que os mercados de eleições são precisos?

Eles exigem 'skin in the game' — as pessoas colocam dinheiro em suas opiniões, filtrando o ruído de baixa qualidade. Quanto maior o volume, mais confiável é o preço.

Quais mercados de eleições estão ativos agora?

EUA 2028, Israel (por data), eleições locais do Reino Unido e da UE, além de primárias partidárias. Siga nossa página para atualizações.

Como precificar risco em mercados de eleições?

Verifique a liquidez (profundidade do livro de ordens), volatilidade histórica e data de decisão. Mercados com liquidez baixa são propensos a preços ineficientes.

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