Mercados de Predicción Electoral

Los mercados electorales son el núcleo de Polymarket: elecciones presidenciales de EE. UU., primarias de partidos, carreras congresuales y cualquier voto de una democracia importante. Los mercados electorales de EE. UU. 2024 registraron miles de millones en volumen.

La fijación de precios combina encuestas, datos de financiamiento de partidos, indicadores económicos e informes, todo destilado en un solo precio. Un terreno de negociación rico tanto para analistas como para inversores impulsados por opiniones.

70 mercados activos
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%SíNo
$669.5M Vol 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%SíNo
July 2299%SíNo
$3.1M Vol 31/08
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%SíNo
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%SíNo
$1.25B Vol 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%SíNo
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro24%SíNo
$115.2M Vol 04/10
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%SíNo
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%SíNo
$678.2M Vol 07/11
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%SíNo
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%SíNo
$115.7M Vol 30/04
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
46%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$669.7K Vol 03/01
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot48%SíNo
Benjamin Netanyahu38%SíNo
$29M Vol 31/12
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone68%SíNo
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%SíNo
$343.4K Vol 11/08
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3190%SíNo
September 3083%SíNo
$127.6K Vol
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%SíNo
$15.9M Vol 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro71%SíNo
Renan SantosRenan Santos18%SíNo
$4.2M Vol 04/10
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%SíNo
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%SíNo
$40.4M Vol 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%SíNo
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%SíNo
$1.3M Vol 13/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%SíNo
CDUCDU28%SíNo
$3.1M Vol 20/09
¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará la Cámara de Representantes en 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%SíNo
$21.9K Vol 03/11
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%SíNo
Aq JolAq Jol23%SíNo
$28.8K Vol 23/08
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface74%SíNo
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%SíNo
$231.7K Vol 30/06
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%SíNo
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%SíNo
$2.7M Vol 30/06
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%SíNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%SíNo
$1.2M Vol 04/08
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%SíNo
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%SíNo
$3.2M Vol 31/12
¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?¿Netanyahu fuera del cargo antes de...?
December 3144%SíNo
July 311%SíNo
$15.3K Vol 31/12
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%SíNo
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%SíNo
$102.4K Vol 14/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass63%SíNo
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%SíNo
$13M Vol 31/12
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig97%SíNo
Sian AstleySian Astley1%SíNo
$344.6K Vol 30/07
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%SíNo
$8.9K Vol 04/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)98%SíNo
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%SíNo
$2.8M Vol 20/09
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins63%SíNo
James FishbackJames Fishback23%SíNo
$11.3K Vol 18/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%SíNo
James FishbackJames Fishback3%SíNo
$2.1M Vol 18/08
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%SíNo
Binface 10–20%31%SíNo
$121.6K Vol 30/06
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%SíNo
Graham Platner1%SíNo
$815.7K Vol 5 días restantes
Latvian Parliamentary Election WinnerLatvian Parliamentary Election Winner
LPV39%SíNo
AS37%SíNo
$158.9K Vol 03/10
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr70%SíNo
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist28%SíNo
$12.9K Vol 04/08
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso82%SíNo
Kevin HermeningKevin Hermening9%SíNo
$6.5K Vol 11/08
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$100.9K Vol 30/09
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%SíNo
R Senate, D House41%SíNo
$8.8M Vol 03/11
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei49%SíNo
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof47%SíNo
$364.6K Vol 24/10
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%SíNo
Evan PowerEvan Power26%SíNo
$6K Vol 18/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos71%SíNo
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado16%SíNo
$469.8K Vol 04/10
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%SíNo
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%SíNo
$5.8K Vol 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%SíNo
RepublicanRepublican14%SíNo
$76.5K Vol 03/11
Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPernambuco Governor Election Winner
João Campos58%SíNo
Raquel Lyra40%SíNo
$16.9K Vol 04/10
NY-15 House Election WinnerNY-15 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%SíNo
Republican Party3%SíNo
$39.6K Vol 03/11
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH63%SíNo
BNBN34%SíNo
$9.7K Vol 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%SíNo
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%SíNo
$5.3K Vol 11/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush57%SíNo
Wesley BellWesley Bell45%SíNo
$86K Vol 04/08
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%SíNo
RepublicanRepublican33%SíNo
$1.1M Vol 03/11
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner
UBJP77%SíNo
BFP21%SíNo
$29.8K Vol 14/09
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%SíNo
Don LemonDon Lemon13%SíNo
$895.3K Vol 31/12
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%SíNo
Mandela Barnes11%SíNo
$211.5K Vol 11/08
¿Qué partido ganará el Senado en 2026?¿Qué partido ganará el Senado en 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%SíNo
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%SíNo
$3.3M Vol 03/11
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%SíNo
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%SíNo
$73.1K Vol 05/11
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%SíNo
Feely 20–25%10%SíNo
$22.4K Vol 04/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%SíNo
Haley StevensHaley Stevens4%SíNo
$6K Vol 04/08
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%SíNo
50-53%19%SíNo
$30.3K Vol 20/09
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%SíNo
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%SíNo
$3.3M Vol 13/09
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%33%SíNo
78-80%78-80%33%SíNo
$10.6K Vol 07/11
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%SíNo
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%SíNo
$3.8K Vol 08/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%SíNo
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%SíNo
$162.6K Vol 04/08
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford93%SíNo
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%SíNo
$3.8K Vol 18/08
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%38%SíNo
Farage 70–80%27%SíNo
$84K Vol 30/06
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%37%SíNo
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%31%SíNo
$291.1K Vol 04/10
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%SíNo
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%SíNo
$3.8K Vol 08/08
AZ-01 House Election WinnerAZ-01 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party66%SíNo
Republican PartyRepublican Party30%SíNo
$4.2K Vol 04/11
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%SíNo
Kirill BasinKirill Basin2%SíNo
$3.4K Vol 08/08
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%SíNo
Angie NixonAngie Nixon12%SíNo
$150.5K Vol 18/08
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
10%
de probabilidad
Sí No
$33.9K Vol 31/07
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%SíNo
RepublicanRepublican32%SíNo
$128.8K Vol 03/11
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell50%SíNo
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth44%SíNo
$454.2K Vol 11/08
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%SíNo
Democratic Party7%SíNo
$36.2K Vol 03/11
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Preguntas Frecuentes sobre Mercados Electorales

¿Por qué son precisos los mercados electorales?

Requieren 'piel en el juego': las personas ponen dinero en sus opiniones, filtrando el ruido de baja calidad. Cuanto mayor sea el volumen, más confiable será el precio.

¿Qué mercados electorales están activos ahora?

EE. UU. 2028, Israel (por fecha), elecciones locales del Reino Unido y la UE, además de primarias de partidos. Sigue nuestra página para actualizaciones.

¿Cómo evalúo el riesgo en los mercados electorales?

Verifica la liquidez (profundidad del libro de órdenes), la volatilidad histórica y la fecha de decisión. Los mercados con poca liquidez son propensos a precios ineficientes.

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