Marchés de Prédiction Électorale

Les marchés électoraux sont au cœur de Polymarket — élections présidentielles américaines, primaires de partis, courses au Congrès, et tout vote majeur dans une démocratie. Les marchés électoraux américains de 2024 ont enregistré des milliards en volume.

Les prix combinent des sondages, des données de financement des partis, des indicateurs économiques et des rapports — le tout distillé en un seul prix. Un terrain de trading riche pour les analystes et les investisseurs guidés par l'opinion.

61 marchés actifs
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%OuiNon
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%OuiNon
$669.5M Vol 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%OuiNon
July 2299%OuiNon
$3.2M Vol 31/08
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%OuiNon
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro23%OuiNon
$115.2M Vol 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%OuiNon
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%OuiNon
$1.25B Vol 07/11
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%OuiNon
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%OuiNon
$678.2M Vol 07/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
44%
de chance
Oui Non
$680.1K Vol 03/01
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%OuiNon
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%OuiNon
$115.7M Vol 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot48%OuiNon
Benjamin Netanyahu38%OuiNon
$29M Vol 31/12
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone69%OuiNon
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%OuiNon
$345.7K Vol 11/08
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%OuiNon
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%OuiNon
$15.9M Vol 20/09
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3189%OuiNon
September 3083%OuiNon
$129.4K Vol
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%OuiNon
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%OuiNon
$2.8M Vol 30/06
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro71%OuiNon
Renan SantosRenan Santos18%OuiNon
$4.2M Vol 04/10
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%OuiNon
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%OuiNon
$40.4M Vol 03/11
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)94%OuiNon
New People (NL)New People (NL)2%OuiNon
$2.8M Vol 20/09
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%OuiNon
CDUCDU28%OuiNon
$3.1M Vol 20/09
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%OuiNon
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%OuiNon
$1.3M Vol 13/09
Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?Quel parti remportera la Chambre des représentants en 2026 ?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%OuiNon
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%OuiNon
$22.1K Vol 03/11
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%OuiNon
Aq JolAq Jol22%OuiNon
$28.9K Vol 23/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%OuiNon
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%OuiNon
$1.2M Vol 04/08
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface74%OuiNon
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%OuiNon
$232K Vol 30/06
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%OuiNon
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%OuiNon
$3.2M Vol 31/12
Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?Netanyahu hors de ses fonctions d'ici... ?
December 3145%OuiNon
July 311%OuiNon
$15.4K Vol 31/12
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass63%OuiNon
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%OuiNon
$13M Vol 31/12
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%OuiNon
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%OuiNon
$102.4K Vol 14/08
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig98%OuiNon
Sian AstleySian Astley1%OuiNon
$344.7K Vol 30/07
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%OuiNon
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%OuiNon
$8.9K Vol 04/11
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins59%OuiNon
James FishbackJames Fishback24%OuiNon
$11.4K Vol 18/08
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%OuiNon
Binface 10–20%31%OuiNon
$121.6K Vol 30/06
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%OuiNon
R Senate, D House41%OuiNon
$8.8M Vol 03/11
MI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Callie BarrCallie Barr72%OuiNon
Kyle BlomquistKyle Blomquist28%OuiNon
$13.2K Vol 04/08
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%OuiNon
Graham Platner1%OuiNon
$815.7K Vol 5 jours restants
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso71%OuiNon
Jessi EbbenJessi Ebben13%OuiNon
$6.8K Vol 11/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush57%OuiNon
Wesley BellWesley Bell42%OuiNon
$87.5K Vol 04/08
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$100.9K Vol 30/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos68%OuiNon
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%OuiNon
$470K Vol 04/10
Quel parti remportera le Sénat en 2026 ?Quel parti remportera le Sénat en 2026 ?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%OuiNon
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%OuiNon
$3.3M Vol 03/11
NY-15 House Election WinnerNY-15 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OuiNon
Republican Party3%OuiNon
$40.1K Vol 03/11
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%OuiNon
Evan PowerEvan Power26%OuiNon
$6K Vol 18/08
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%OuiNon
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%OuiNon
$5.8K Vol 11/08
Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPernambuco Governor Election Winner
João Campos56%OuiNon
Raquel Lyra37%OuiNon
$17K Vol 04/10
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%OuiNon
RepublicanRepublican14%OuiNon
$76.5K Vol 03/11
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH65%OuiNon
BNBN35%OuiNon
$9.9K Vol 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%OuiNon
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%OuiNon
$5.3K Vol 11/08
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%OuiNon
David Crowley11%OuiNon
$211.6K Vol 11/08
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%OuiNon
Feely 20–25%10%OuiNon
$22.4K Vol 04/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%OuiNon
Haley StevensHaley Stevens4%OuiNon
$6K Vol 04/08
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%OuiNon
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%OuiNon
$73.1K Vol 05/11
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%OuiNon
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%OuiNon
$73.1K Vol 05/11
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%OuiNon
RepublicanRepublican33%OuiNon
$1.1M Vol 03/11
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton95%OuiNon
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%OuiNon
$162.7K Vol 04/08
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
78-80%78-80%34%OuiNon
76-78%76-78%33%OuiNon
$10.6K Vol 07/11
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%OuiNon
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%OuiNon
$3.8K Vol 08/08
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford93%OuiNon
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%OuiNon
$3.8K Vol 18/08
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Don LemonDon Lemon14%OuiNon
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%OuiNon
$895.3K Vol 31/12
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%36%OuiNon
Farage 70–80%27%OuiNon
$84K Vol 30/06
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%OuiNon
50-53%18%OuiNon
$30.3K Vol 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%36%OuiNon
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%33%OuiNon
$291.2K Vol 04/10
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%OuiNon
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%OuiNon
$3.8K Vol 08/08
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
9%
de chance
Oui Non
$34.1K Vol 31/07
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman89%OuiNon
Angie NixonAngie Nixon10%OuiNon
$150.6K Vol 18/08
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FAQ sur les Marchés Électoraux

Pourquoi les marchés électoraux sont-ils précis ?

Ils nécessitent un 'investissement personnel' — les gens mettent de l'argent sur leurs opinions, filtrant le bruit de faible qualité. Plus le volume est important, plus le prix est fiable.

Quels marchés électoraux sont en direct maintenant ?

États-Unis 2028, Israël (par date), élections locales au Royaume-Uni et dans l'UE, ainsi que les primaires de partis. Suivez notre page pour des mises à jour.

Comment évaluer le risque sur les marchés électoraux ?

Vérifiez la liquidité (profondeur du carnet de commandes), la volatilité historique et la date de décision. Les marchés à faible liquidité sont sujets à une tarification inefficace.

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