פולימרקט בחירות

שווקי בחירות הם ליבת Polymarket — בחירות נשיאותיות בארה״ב, מפלגות פרימריז, בחירות לקונגרס, ובחירות בכל דמוקרטיה משמעותית. שווקי בחירות ארה״ב 2024 רשמו נפח של מיליארדי דולרים.

התמחור משקלל סקרים, נתוני מימון מפלגה, אינדיקטורים כלכליים, ודיווחים עיתונאיים — הכול מגיע לידי ביטוי במחיר אחד. זה מאפשר סחר מעניין הן עבור מנתחים והן עבור משקיעים עם דעה.

72 שווקים פעילים
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%כןלא
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%כןלא
$668.4M נפח 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%כןלא
July 2294%כןלא
$1.9M נפח 31/08
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%כןלא
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%כןלא
$1.25B נפח 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%כןלא
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro25%כןלא
$114.4M נפח 04/10
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%כןלא
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%כןלא
$115.5M נפח 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot51%כןלא
Benjamin Netanyahu37%כןלא
$28.9M נפח 31/12
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance42%כןלא
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%כןלא
$677.7M נפח 07/11
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3185%כןלא
September 3079%כןלא
$88.6K נפח
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed78%כןלא
Haley Stevens22%כןלא
$1.1M נפח 04/08
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone69%כןלא
Ralph NormanRalph Norman15%כןלא
$298.9K נפח 11/08
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%כןלא
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%כןלא
$15.8M נפח 20/09
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%כןלא
Nirav Shah1%כןלא
$808.1K נפח עוד 6 ימים
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage95%כןלא
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%כןלא
$2.7M נפח 30/06
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%כןלא
R Senate, D House41%כןלא
$8.8M נפח 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%כןלא
R Senate, D House41%כןלא
$8.8M נפח 03/11
איזו מפלגה תנצח בבית הנבחרים ב-2026?איזו מפלגה תנצח בבית הנבחרים ב-2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%כןלא
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%כןלא
$24.4K נפח 03/11
Israeli Legislative Election WinnerIsraeli Legislative Election Winner
LikudLikud56%כןלא
YasharYashar43%כןלא
$152.6K נפח 27/10
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface66%כןלא
William CloustonWilliam Clouston11%כןלא
$213.9K נפח 30/06
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson76%כןלא
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%כןלא
$3.3M נפח 13/09
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%48%כןלא
Farage 70–80%24%כןלא
$80.4K נפח 30/06
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
38%
סיכוי
כן לא
$470.7K נפח 03/01
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro78%כןלא
Renan SantosRenan Santos12%כןלא
$4.2M נפח 04/10
Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?Next leader of Germany's Union (CDU/CSU)?
Thorsten FreiThorsten Frei97%כןלא
Carsten LinnemannCarsten Linnemann1%כןלא
$14.4K נפח 29/07
Argentina Presidential Election WinnerArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier MileiJavier Milei49%כןלא
Axel KicillofAxel Kicillof48%כןלא
$358.6K נפח 24/10
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%כןלא
Don LemonDon Lemon13%כןלא
$890.7K נפח 31/12
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron Donalds96%כןלא
James Fishback2%כןלא
$2.1M נפח 18/08
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig98%כןלא
Sian AstleySian Astley1%כןלא
$334.5K נפח 30/07
איזו מפלגה תנצח בסנאט ב-2026?איזו מפלגה תנצח בסנאט ב-2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%כןלא
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%כןלא
$3.3M נפח 03/11
Texas Senate Election WinnerTexas Senate Election Winner
Ken Paxton (R)Ken Paxton (R)57%כןלא
James Talarico (D)James Talarico (D)44%כןלא
$611.5K נפח 03/11
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke39%כןלא
CDUCDU29%כןלא
$3M נפח 20/09
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%כןלא
RepublicanRepublican33%כןלא
$1M נפח 03/11
South Ossetia Presidential Election WinnerSouth Ossetia Presidential Election Winner
Marat KambolovMarat Kambolov97%כןלא
Oleg KozaevOleg Kozaev1%כןלא
$9K נפח 18/09
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori Bush54%כןלא
Wesley Bell46%כןלא
$77.9K נפח 04/08
Ottawa Mayoral Election WinnerOttawa Mayoral Election Winner
Mark SutcliffeMark Sutcliffe62%כןלא
Alex LawsonAlex Lawson28%כןלא
$48.6K נפח 26/10
Kansas Governor Republican Primary WinnerKansas Governor Republican Primary Winner
Ty Masterson83%כןלא
Philip Sarnecki14%כןלא
$76K נפח 04/08
Likud Party Primary WinnerLikud Party Primary Winner
Amir OhanaAmir Ohana33%כןלא
No Primary by Knesset Election29%כןלא
$7K נפח 26/10
France United Left Primary WinnerFrance United Left Primary Winner
Canceled95%כןלא
François RuffinFrançois Ruffin2%כןלא
$157.7K נפח 11/10
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema91%כןלא
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile10%כןלא
$90.6K נפח 14/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos64%כןלא
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%כןלא
$463.9K נפח 04/10
Cook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party WinnerCook Islands Parliamentary Election: Party Winner
Cook Islands PartyCook Islands Party89%כןלא
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party3%כןלא
$40.1K נפח 12/08
2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner2026 Bangsamoro Parliament Election: Party Winner
UBJP70%כןלא
BFP15%כןלא
$24.9K נפח 14/09
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Wayne County (Detroit) Winner
Haley Stevens52%כןלא
Abdul El-Sayed40%כןלא
$6.2K נפח 04/08
Quebec General Election WinnerQuebec General Election Winner
PQPQ73%כןלא
CAQCAQ15%כןלא
$690.4K נפח 05/10
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
Ken SimKen Sim24%כןלא
William AzaroffWilliam Azaroff22%כןלא
$133.2K נפח 17/10
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca Hong78%כןלא
David Crowley12%כןלא
$203.9K נפח 11/08
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd PlaceRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)77%כןלא
New People (NL)New People (NL)16%כןלא
$106.6K נפח 20/09
Vermont Governor Election WinnerVermont Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican83%כןלא
DemocratDemocrat17%כןלא
$32.8K נפח 03/11
האם Netanyahu יודח מתפקידו עד...?האם Netanyahu יודח מתפקידו עד...?
December 3142%כןלא
July 311%כןלא
$4.9K נפח 31/12
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
Jean-Luc MélenchonJean-Luc Mélenchon96%כןלא
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen90%כןלא
$232.5K נפח 17/04
Wyoming Governor Republican Primary WinnerWyoming Governor Republican Primary Winner
Megan Degenfelder63%כןלא
Eric Barlow31%כןלא
$93.1K נפח 18/08
AZ-04 House Election WinnerAZ-04 House Election Winner
Democratic Party89%כןלא
Republican Party9%כןלא
$24.8K נפח 03/11
Michigan Governor Republican Primary WinnerMichigan Governor Republican Primary Winner
John James85%כןלא
Perry Johnson13%כןלא
$85.8K נפח 04/08
OH-10 House Election WinnerOH-10 House Election Winner
Republican Party82%כןלא
Democratic Party17%כןלא
$30K נפח 03/11
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%36%כןלא
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%35%כןלא
$287.6K נפח 04/10
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH63%כןלא
BNBN39%כןלא
$4.1K נפח 01/08
MT-02 House Election WinnerMT-02 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%כןלא
Democratic Party6%כןלא
$33.4K נפח 03/11
Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen86%כןלא
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe42%כןלא
$72K נפח 30/04
NY-21 House Election WinnerNY-21 House Election Winner
Republican Party78%כןלא
Democratic Party21%כןלא
$46.5K נפח 03/11
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3014%
$94.6K נפח 30/09
Alaska Governor Election Winner Alaska Governor Election Winner
Tom BegichTom Begich35%כןלא
Bernadette WilsonBernadette Wilson30%כןלא
$1.1M נפח 03/11
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%כןלא
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%כןלא
$40.4M נפח 03/11
Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Next Bosniak President of Bosnia and Herzegovina?
Bakir IzetbegovićBakir Izetbegović52%כןלא
Denis BećirovićDenis Bećirović49%כןלא
$35.3K נפח 04/10
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay Collins75%כןלא
James Fishback14%כןלא
$3.7K נפח 18/08
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)98%כןלא
New People (NL)New People (NL)1%כןלא
$2.8M נפח 20/09
AZ-06 House Election WinnerAZ-06 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party78%כןלא
Republican PartyRepublican Party19%כןלא
$5.7K נפח 04/11
IN-05 House Election WinnerIN-05 House Election Winner
Republican Party85%כןלא
Democratic Party15%כןלא
$24.2K נפח 03/11
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Nebraska Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican71%כןלא
IndependentIndependent30%כןלא
$167.9K נפח 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)96%כןלא
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)3%כןלא
$1.2M נפח 13/09
FL-26 House Election WinnerFL-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party86%כןלא
Democratic Party13%כןלא
$34.4K נפח 03/11
Next President of New CaledoniaNext President of New Caledonia
Milakulo TukumuliMilakulo Tukumuli96%כןלא
Sonia BackèsSonia Backès1%כןלא
$54.5K נפח 30/06
CA-28 House Election WinnerCA-28 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%כןלא
Republican Party6%כןלא
$110.1K נפח 03/11
Guam Governor Republican Primary WinnerGuam Governor Republican Primary Winner
Vicente Ada73%כןלא
Frank F. Blas Jr.24%כןלא
$42.1K נפח 01/08
טען עוד בפולימרקט ←

שאלות נפוצות על שווקי בחירות

למה שוקי בחירות נחשבים למדויקים?

הם דורשים "skin in the game" — אנשים שמים כסף על דעתם, מה שמסנן משקעים לא-בסיסיים. ככל שהנפח גדול יותר, כך המחיר אמין יותר.

אילו שווקי בחירות פעילים כעת?

בחירות 2028 בארה״ב, בחירות ישראל (לפי תאריך), UK ו-EU בחירות מקומיות, ובחירות מפלגתיות פנימיות. עקבו אחר הדף שלנו לעדכונים.

איך מתמחרים סיכון בשוקי בחירות?

בדקו נזילות (עומק ספר הפקודות), תנודתיות היסטורית, ותאריך החלטה. שווקים עם נזילות נמוכה מועדים לתמחור לא יעיל.

התחל אימון פולימרקט חינם
סחר בשווקי תחזיות עם כסף וירטואלי. מחירים אמיתיים, אפס סיכון. התחרה בטבלת המובילים.
$1K
כסף וירטואלי
500+
שווקים
$0
סיכון אמיתי
פרטים נוספים
מחירים אמיתיים אפס סיכון טבלת מובילים