Mga Pamilihan ng Prediksyon sa Halalan

Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan ay pangunahing bahagi ng Polymarket — mga halalan sa pagkapangulo ng US, mga pangunahing partido, mga laban sa kongreso, at anumang boto ng pangunahing demokrasya. Ang mga pamilihan ng halalan sa US 2024 ay nakapag-book ng bilyon-bilyong halaga.

Pinagsasama-sama ng pagpepresyo ang mga poll, datos ng pananalapi ng partido, mga tagapagpahiwatig ng ekonomiya at mga ulat — lahat ay pinagsama sa isang presyo. Mayamang pook ng kalakalan para sa parehong mga analyst at mga mamumuhunan na nakabatay sa opinyon.

79 mga aktibong merkado
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%OoHindi
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%OoHindi
$669.5M Dami 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2099%OoHindi
July 2299%OoHindi
$3.5M Dami 31/08
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%OoHindi
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%OoHindi
$1.25B Dami 07/11
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%OoHindi
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro23%OoHindi
$115.3M Dami 04/10
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%OoHindi
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%OoHindi
$678.2M Dami 07/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
46%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$686K Dami 03/01
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%OoHindi
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%OoHindi
$115.8M Dami 30/04
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot49%OoHindi
Benjamin Netanyahu38%OoHindi
$29.1M Dami 31/12
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone71%OoHindi
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%OoHindi
$364.7K Dami 11/08
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%OoHindi
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%OoHindi
$15.9M Dami 20/09
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%OoHindi
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%OoHindi
$2.8M Dami 30/06
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3188%OoHindi
September 3082%OoHindi
$133.2K Dami
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)96%OoHindi
New People (NL)New People (NL)2%OoHindi
$2.8M Dami 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro72%OoHindi
Renan SantosRenan Santos16%OoHindi
$4.2M Dami 04/10
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%OoHindi
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%OoHindi
$40.4M Dami 03/11
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke35%OoHindi
CDUCDU28%OoHindi
$3.1M Dami 20/09
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%OoHindi
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%OoHindi
$1.3M Dami 13/09
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface75%OoHindi
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%OoHindi
$236.3K Dami 30/06
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%OoHindi
RespublicaRespublica21%OoHindi
$29.1K Dami 23/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%OoHindi
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%OoHindi
$1.2M Dami 04/08
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%OoHindi
R Senate, D House41%OoHindi
$8.8M Dami 03/11
Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?Aalis ba sa puwesto si Netanyahu bago ang...?
December 3145%OoHindi
July 311%OoHindi
$15.6K Dami 31/12
Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?Aling partido ang mananalo sa Kapulungan ng mga Kinatawan sa 2026?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%OoHindi
$15.6K Dami 03/11
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Nebraska Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican76%OoHindi
IndependentIndependent22%OoHindi
$180.4K Dami 03/11
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%OoHindi
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%OoHindi
$102.4K Dami 14/08
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%OoHindi
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%OoHindi
$3.2M Dami 31/12
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig97%OoHindi
Sian AstleySian Astley2%OoHindi
$345.2K Dami 30/07
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%OoHindi
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%OoHindi
$9.4K Dami 04/11
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerSouth Carolina Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican91%OoHindi
DemocratDemocrat11%OoHindi
$108.2K Dami 03/11
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins62%OoHindi
James FishbackJames Fishback22%OoHindi
$11.5K Dami 18/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass64%OoHindi
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%OoHindi
$13M Dami 31/12
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%OoHindi
Binface 10–20%31%OoHindi
$122K Dami 30/06
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
William AzaroffWilliam Azaroff30%OoHindi
Ken SimKen Sim24%OoHindi
$140.3K Dami 17/10
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso71%OoHindi
Jessi EbbenJessi Ebben14%OoHindi
$6.8K Dami 11/08
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican96%OoHindi
DemocratDemocrat5%OoHindi
$25.7K Dami 03/11
Aling partido ang mananalo sa Senado sa 2026?Aling partido ang mananalo sa Senado sa 2026?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%OoHindi
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%OoHindi
$3.3M Dami 03/11
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%OoHindi
Graham Platner1%OoHindi
$815.7K Dami 5 araw pa
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos67%OoHindi
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%OoHindi
$470.1K Dami 04/10
NY-15 House Election WinnerNY-15 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%OoHindi
Republican Party3%OoHindi
$40.1K Dami 03/11
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%OoHindi
Evan PowerEvan Power26%OoHindi
$6K Dami 18/08
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%OoHindi
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%OoHindi
$5.8K Dami 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%OoHindi
RepublicanRepublican14%OoHindi
$76.5K Dami 03/11
Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPernambuco Governor Election Winner
João Campos56%OoHindi
Raquel Lyra32%OoHindi
$17K Dami 04/10
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH63%OoHindi
BNBN36%OoHindi
$9.9K Dami 01/08
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%OoHindi
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%OoHindi
$5.4K Dami 11/08
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%OoHindi
Feely 20–25%10%OoHindi
$22.6K Dami 04/08
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane46%OoHindi
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%OoHindi
$73.1K Dami 05/11
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush59%OoHindi
Wesley BellWesley Bell42%OoHindi
$88.1K Dami 04/08
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong78%OoHindi
David CrowleyDavid Crowley11%OoHindi
$211.7K Dami 11/08
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%OoHindi
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%OoHindi
$3.8K Dami 08/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton95%OoHindi
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%OoHindi
$162.7K Dami 04/08
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%34%OoHindi
78-80%78-80%33%OoHindi
$10.6K Dami 07/11
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%OoHindi
RepublicanRepublican33%OoHindi
$1.1M Dami 03/11
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%29%OoHindi
50-53%19%OoHindi
$30.3K Dami 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%36%OoHindi
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%33%OoHindi
$291.2K Dami 04/10
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party90%OoHindi
Democratic Party12%OoHindi
$14.8K Dami 03/11
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$256.7K Dami 31/12
FL-05 Republican Primary WinnerFL-05 Republican Primary Winner
John RutherfordJohn Rutherford94%OoHindi
Mark KayeMark Kaye3%OoHindi
$3.8K Dami 18/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%OoHindi
Haley StevensHaley Stevens5%OoHindi
$6K Dami 04/08
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31? Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
9%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$34.1K Dami 31/07
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%OoHindi
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%OoHindi
$3.9K Dami 08/08
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Don LemonDon Lemon14%OoHindi
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%OoHindi
$896.4K Dami 31/12
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%OoHindi
Greg GuithuesGreg Guithues2%OoHindi
$3.4K Dami 08/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%OoHindi
James FishbackJames Fishback3%OoHindi
$2.1M Dami 18/08
WA-03 Primary First PlaceWA-03 Primary First Place
John BraunJohn Braun89%OoHindi
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezMarie Gluesenkamp Perez12%OoHindi
$13.8K Dami 04/08
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%OoHindi
RepublicanRepublican32%OoHindi
$128.8K Dami 03/11
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican89%OoHindi
DemocratDemocrat12%OoHindi
$60.1K Dami
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney77%OoHindi
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar21%OoHindi
$71.8K Dami 04/08
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
41%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$180.4K Dami 06/09
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell52%OoHindi
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth44%OoHindi
$454.7K Dami 11/08
WA-05 Primary WinnersWA-05 Primary Winners
Michael BaumgartnerMichael Baumgartner98%OoHindi
Carmela ConroyCarmela Conroy78%OoHindi
$3.7K Dami 04/08
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%OoHindi
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%OoHindi
$3.3M Dami 13/09
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%36%OoHindi
Farage 70–80%27%OoHindi
$84.1K Dami 30/06
WA-01 Primary WinnersWA-01 Primary Winners
Suzan DelBeneSuzan DelBene95%OoHindi
Mary SilvaMary Silva87%OoHindi
$3.2K Dami 04/08
TX-04 House Election WinnerTX-04 House Election Winner
Republican Party92%OoHindi
Democratic Party8%OoHindi
$19.7K Dami 03/11
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%OoHindi
Angie NixonAngie Nixon9%OoHindi
$150.6K Dami 18/08
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
12%
tsansa
Oo Hindi
$136.5K Dami 31/12
OH-06 House Election WinnerOH-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%OoHindi
Democratic Party7%OoHindi
$39.6K Dami 03/11
NJ-03 House Election WinnerNJ-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%OoHindi
Republican Party7%OoHindi
$12.7K Dami 03/11
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FAQ ng mga Pamilihan ng Halalan

Bakit tumpak ang mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Kailangan nila ng 'skin in the game' — ang mga tao ay naglalagay ng pera sa kanilang mga pananaw, na nag-aalis ng mababang kalidad na ingay. Mas malaki ang volume, mas maaasahan ang presyo.

Aling mga pamilihan ng halalan ang live ngayon?

US 2028, Israel (ayon sa petsa), mga lokal na halalan sa UK at EU, kasama ang mga pangunahing partido. Sundan ang aming pahina para sa mga update.

Paano ko ipapresyo ang panganib sa mga pamilihan ng halalan?

Suriin ang liquidity (lalim ng order-book), makasaysayang volatility, at petsa ng desisyon. Ang mga pamilihan na may manipis na liquidity ay madaling kapitan ng hindi epektibong pagpepresyo.

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