선거 예측 시장

선거 시장은 폴리마켓의 핵심입니다 — 미국 대통령, 정당 예비선거, 의회 선거 및 주요 민주주의의 투표. 2024년 미국 선거 시장은 수십억 달러의 거래량을 기록했습니다.

가격은 여론 조사, 정당 재정 데이터, 경제 지표 및 보고서를 혼합하여 하나의 가격으로 정제됩니다. 분석가와 의견 기반 투자자 모두에게 풍부한 거래 환경을 제공합니다.

87 활성 시장
Presidential Election Winner 2028Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD VanceJD Vance20%예아니오
Marco RubioMarco Rubio14%예아니오
$669.6M 거래량 07/11
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 2299%예아니오
July 2399%예아니오
$3.6M 거래량 31/08
Brazil Presidential ElectionBrazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da SilvaLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva61%예아니오
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro23%예아니오
$115.3M 거래량 04/10
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin NewsomGavin Newsom20%예아니오
Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%예아니오
$1.25B 거래량 07/11
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. VanceJ.D. Vance43%예아니오
Marco RubioMarco Rubio28%예아니오
$678.2M 거래량 07/11
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
40%
확률
예 아니오
$699.7K 거래량 03/01
Next French Presidential ElectionNext French Presidential Election
Marine Le PenMarine Le Pen31%예아니오
Édouard PhilippeÉdouard Philippe27%예아니오
$115.8M 거래량 30/04
Berlin State Election WinnerBerlin State Election Winner
LinkeLinke34%예아니오
CDUCDU27%예아니오
$3.1M 거래량 20/09
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot49%예아니오
Benjamin Netanyahu38%예아니오
$29.1M 거래량 31/12
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)57%예아니오
New People (NL)New People (NL)37%예아니오
$15.9M 거래량 20/09
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary WinnerSouth Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham NordoneDarline Graham Nordone71%예아니오
Ralph NormanRalph Norman21%예아니오
$364.9K 거래량 11/08
Clacton by-election WinnerClacton by-election Winner
Nigel FarageNigel Farage96%예아니오
Count BinfaceCount Binface4%예아니오
$2.8M 거래량 30/06
Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?Will Netanyahu visit New York City by...?
December 3188%예아니오
September 3082%예아니오
$134.7K 거래량
Russia Parliamentary Election WinnerRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
United Russia (ER)United Russia (ER)96%예아니오
New People (NL)New People (NL)2%예아니오
$2.8M 거래량 20/09
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio BolsonaroFlávio Bolsonaro75%예아니오
Renan SantosRenan Santos15%예아니오
$4.2M 거래량 04/10
California Governor Election WinnerCalifornia Governor Election Winner
Xavier BecerraXavier Becerra93%예아니오
Steve HiltonSteve Hilton7%예아니오
$40.4M 거래량 03/11
Sweden Parliamentary Election WinnerSweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)98%예아니오
Sweden Democrats (SD)Sweden Democrats (SD)2%예아니오
$1.3M 거래량 13/09
Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd PlaceKazakhstan Kurultai Election: 2nd Place
AuylAuyl51%예아니오
RespublicaRespublica21%예아니오
$29.2K 거래량 23/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed79%예아니오
Haley StevensHaley Stevens21%예아니오
$1.2M 거래량 04/08
Clacton by-election: 2nd placeClacton by-election: 2nd place
Count BinfaceCount Binface74%예아니오
William CloustonWilliam Clouston10%예아니오
$236.5K 거래량 30/06
Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?Maine Democratic Senate nominee on July 27?
Troy Jackson99%예아니오
Shenna Bellows1%예아니오
$828K 거래량 4일 남음
2026년 하원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?2026년 하원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party86%예아니오
Republican PartyRepublican Party15%예아니오
$16.3K 거래량 03/11
Balance of Power: 2026 MidtermsBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep44%예아니오
R Senate, D House41%예아니오
$8.8M 거래량 03/11
Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?Netanyahu가 ...까지 물러날까?
December 3145%예아니오
July 311%예아니오
$15.8K 거래량 31/12
Iowa Senate Election WinnerIowa Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican59%예아니오
DemocratDemocrat42%예아니오
$158.3K 거래량 03/11
Nebraska Senate Election Winner Nebraska Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican76%예아니오
IndependentIndependent22%예아니오
$180.7K 거래량 03/11
Somaliland Parliamentary Election WinnerSomaliland Parliamentary Election Winner
No election before 2027No election before 202793%예아니오
WaddaniWaddani6%예아니오
$91.7K 거래량 오늘 마감
Zambia Presidential Election WinnerZambia Presidential Election Winner
Hakainde HichilemaHakainde Hichilema90%예아니오
Brian MundubileBrian Mundubile12%예아니오
$102.5K 거래량 14/08
Next Prime Minister of Romania?Next Prime Minister of Romania?
Alexandru NazareAlexandru Nazare35%예아니오
Sorin GrindeanuSorin Grindeanu14%예아니오
$3.2M 거래량 31/12
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election WinnerGreater Manchester Mayoral Election Winner
Bev CraigBev Craig97%예아니오
Sian AstleySian Astley2%예아니오
$345.2K 거래량 7일 남음
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
DemocraticDemocratic59%예아니오
RepublicanRepublican41%예아니오
$1.9M 거래량 07/11
MN-02 House Election WinnerMN-02 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party90%예아니오
Republican PartyRepublican Party9%예아니오
$9.4K 거래량 04/11
South Carolina Senate Election WinnerSouth Carolina Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican90%예아니오
DemocratDemocrat11%예아니오
$108.3K 거래량 03/11
Florida Governor Republican Primary Second PlaceFlorida Governor Republican Primary Second Place
Jay CollinsJay Collins59%예아니오
James FishbackJames Fishback22%예아니오
$11.5K 거래량 18/08
Los Angeles Mayoral ElectionLos Angeles Mayoral Election
Karen BassKaren Bass64%예아니오
Nithya RamanNithya Raman38%예아니오
$13M 거래량 31/12
Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
Binface <10%35%예아니오
Binface 10–20%31%예아니오
$122K 거래량 30/06
Vancouver Mayoral Election WinnerVancouver Mayoral Election Winner
William AzaroffWilliam Azaroff31%예아니오
Ken SimKen Sim24%예아니오
$140.5K 거래량 17/10
Texas Governor Election WinnerTexas Governor Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican95%예아니오
DemocratDemocrat6%예아니오
$26.2K 거래량 03/11
2026년 상원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?2026년 상원은 어느 정당이 승리할까?
Republican PartyRepublican Party56%예아니오
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party44%예아니오
$3.3M 거래량 03/11
WI-07 Republican Primary WinnerWI-07 Republican Primary Winner
Michael AlfonsoMichael Alfonso72%예아니오
Jessi EbbenJessi Ebben12%예아니오
$6.8K 거래량 11/08
NY-15 House Election WinnerNY-15 House Election Winner
Democratic Party94%예아니오
Republican Party3%예아니오
$40.1K 거래량 03/11
FL-02 Republican Primary WinnerFL-02 Republican Primary Winner
Keith GrossKeith Gross53%예아니오
Evan PowerEvan Power26%예아니오
$6K 거래량 18/08
WI-07 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-07 Democratic Primary Winner
Fred ClarkFred Clark85%예아니오
Chris ArmstrongChris Armstrong3%예아니오
$5.8K 거래량 11/08
Georgia Senate Election WinnerGeorgia Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat87%예아니오
RepublicanRepublican14%예아니오
$76.6K 거래량 03/11
Pernambuco Governor Election WinnerPernambuco Governor Election Winner
João Campos61%예아니오
Raquel Lyra31%예아니오
$17K 거래량 04/10
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd PlaceBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Renan SantosRenan Santos68%예아니오
Ronaldo CaiadoRonaldo Caiado17%예아니오
$470.1K 거래량 04/10
WI-01 Democratic Primary WinnerWI-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Mitchell BermanMitchell Berman88%예아니오
Lorenzo SantosLorenzo Santos6%예아니오
$5.4K 거래량 11/08
Maine Senate Election WinnerMaine Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat68%예아니오
RepublicanRepublican33%예아니오
$1.1M 거래량 03/11
2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner2026 Negeri Sembilan General Election Winner
PHPH64%예아니오
BNBN36%예아니오
$10K 거래량 01/08
AZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of VictoryAZ-01 Republican Primary Margin of Victory
Feely 10–15%97%예아니오
Feely <5%8%예아니오
$22.6K 거래량 04/08
MO-01 Democratic Primary WinnerMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Cori BushCori Bush60%예아니오
Wesley BellWesley Bell42%예아니오
$88.4K 거래량 04/08
Next Mayor of Johannesburg?Next Mayor of Johannesburg?
Helen ZilleHelen Zille44%예아니오
Frank ChikaneFrank Chikane42%예아니오
$73.3K 거래량 05/11
Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary WinnerWisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Francesca HongFrancesca Hong78%예아니오
David CrowleyDavid Crowley11%예아니오
$211.8K 거래량 11/08
Kansas Democratic Senate Primary WinnerKansas Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Adam HamiltonAdam Hamilton94%예아니오
Sandy Spidel NeumannSandy Spidel Neumann3%예아니오
$162.9K 거래량 04/08
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of VictoryBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10%Lula da Silva 5-10%36%예아니오
Lula da Silva 10-15%Lula da Silva 10-15%21%예아니오
$291.8K 거래량 04/10
New Zealand Election: TurnoutNew Zealand Election: Turnout
76-78%76-78%34%예아니오
78-80%78-80%31%예아니오
$10.7K 거래량 07/11
Russia Parliamentary Election: TurnoutRussia Parliamentary Election: Turnout
53-56%30%예아니오
50-53%19%예아니오
$30.3K 거래량 20/09
TX-26 House Election WinnerTX-26 House Election Winner
Republican Party90%예아니오
Democratic Party12%예아니오
$14.8K 거래량 03/11
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
96%
확률
예 아니오
$256.7K 거래량 31/12
MI-13 Democratic Primary WinnerMI-13 Democratic Primary Winner
Donavan McKinneyDonavan McKinney81%예아니오
Shri ThanedarShri Thanedar21%예아니오
$72.7K 거래량 04/08
Hawaii Governor Republican Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Republican Primary Winner
Gary CorderyGary Cordery81%예아니오
Ken FujiyamaKen Fujiyama10%예아니오
$3.8K 거래량 08/08
Hawaii Governor Democratic Primary WinnerHawaii Governor Democratic Primary Winner
Josh GreenJosh Green97%예아니오
David BourgoinDavid Bourgoin1%예아니오
$3.9K 거래량 08/08
Florida Governor Republican Primary WinnerFlorida Governor Republican Primary Winner
Byron DonaldsByron Donalds96%예아니오
James FishbackJames Fishback3%예아니오
$2.1M 거래량 18/08
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) WinnerMichigan Democratic Senate Primary: Washtenaw County (Ann Arbor) Winner
Abdul El-SayedAbdul El-Sayed94%예아니오
Haley StevensHaley Stevens5%예아니오
$6K 거래량 04/08
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Don LemonDon Lemon14%예아니오
Pete ButtigiegPete Buttigieg14%예아니오
$896.5K 거래량 31/12
WA-03 Primary First PlaceWA-03 Primary First Place
John BraunJohn Braun89%예아니오
Marie Gluesenkamp PerezMarie Gluesenkamp Perez11%예아니오
$13.8K 거래량 04/08
Michigan Senate Election WinnerMichigan Senate Election Winner
DemocratDemocrat69%예아니오
RepublicanRepublican32%예아니오
$128.8K 거래량 03/11
Minnesota Governor Republican Primary WinnerMinnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner
Mike LindellMike Lindell53%예아니오
Lisa DemuthLisa Demuth43%예아니오
$454.9K 거래량 11/08
Florida Senate Election WinnerFlorida Senate Election Winner
RepublicanRepublican89%예아니오
DemocratDemocrat12%예아니오
$60.1K 거래량
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
41%
확률
예 아니오
$180.4K 거래량 06/09
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?
41%
확률
예 아니오
$180.4K 거래량 06/09
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback <10%72%예아니오
Fishback 10–15%13%예아니오
$26.4K 거래량 18/08
HI-02 Democratic Primary WinnerHI-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Jill TokudaJill Tokuda96%예아니오
Kirill BasinKirill Basin2%예아니오
$3.4K 거래량 08/08
Florida Democratic Senate Primary WinnerFlorida Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Alexander VindmanAlexander Vindman88%예아니오
Angie NixonAngie Nixon11%예아니오
$150.8K 거래량 18/08
Next Prime Minister of SwedenNext Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena AnderssonMagdalena Andersson80%예아니오
Ulf KristerssonUlf Kristersson17%예아니오
$3.3M 거래량 13/09
WA-01 Primary WinnersWA-01 Primary Winners
Suzan DelBeneSuzan DelBene95%예아니오
Mary SilvaMary Silva63%예아니오
$3.2K 거래량 04/08
TX-04 House Election WinnerTX-04 House Election Winner
Republican Party92%예아니오
Democratic Party8%예아니오
$19.7K 거래량 03/11
Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
Farage 60–70%36%예아니오
Farage 70–80%27%예아니오
$84.1K 거래량 30/06
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
12%
확률
예 아니오
$136.5K 거래량 31/12
OH-06 House Election WinnerOH-06 House Election Winner
Republican Party94%예아니오
Democratic Party7%예아니오
$39.6K 거래량 03/11
NJ-03 House Election WinnerNJ-03 House Election Winner
Democratic Party93%예아니오
Republican Party7%예아니오
$12.7K 거래량 03/11
IL-17 House Election WinnerIL-17 House Election Winner
Democratic PartyDemocratic Party92%예아니오
Republican PartyRepublican Party8%예아니오
$12.7K 거래량 04/11
Likud Party Primary WinnerLikud Party Primary Winner
No Primary by Knesset Election49%예아니오
Amir OhanaAmir Ohana33%예아니오
$9.9K 거래량 26/10
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?
July 311%
September 3013%
$101K 거래량 30/09
TX-27 House Election WinnerTX-27 House Election Winner
Republican Party89%예아니오
Democratic Party10%예아니오
$21K 거래량 03/11
CA-25 House Election WinnerCA-25 House Election Winner
Democratic Party92%예아니오
Republican Party7%예아니오
$7.8K 거래량 03/11
WA-05 Primary WinnersWA-05 Primary Winners
Michael BaumgartnerMichael Baumgartner98%예아니오
Carmela ConroyCarmela Conroy79%예아니오
$3.8K 거래량 04/08
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선거 시장 FAQ

왜 선거 시장이 정확한가요?

사람들이 자신의 의견에 돈을 걸어야 하므로 '게임에 피부를 걸어야' 합니다. 이는 저품질의 잡음을 걸러냅니다. 거래량이 클수록 가격이 더 신뢰할 수 있습니다.

현재 어떤 선거 시장이 활성화되어 있나요?

미국 2028, 이스라엘(날짜별), 영국 및 EU 지방 선거, 그리고 정당 예비선거가 있습니다. 업데이트를 보려면 저희 페이지를 팔로우하세요.

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